An incorporeal specter is wafting on the winds of war, unseen or at least unreported by Western sources. Is it that our media mavens do not believe in it? Or are squinching their eyes tightly shut because of the horror it manifests?

Or is that overstating the case? You decide.

The issue is legislation in the Iranian Majlis (mäj’lis - parliament) that would immediately halt oil exports to the European Union. This would circumvent the phase-in period for EU sanctions on Iranian oil.

Everyone is talking about how Iran may or may not close the Strait of Hormuz, and speculating how a military closure would be partial and gradual as the EU sanctions slide into place, and Europe secures oil from the nations of the Arab League. Frankly, how could the closure be gradual? Once military actions start, it is difficult to comprehend how they would not escalate logarithmically in a flash. Perhaps literally.

This legislation bypasses all that, and accomplishes much the same thing for the Iranians without a military component.

One can only wonder how great a shock it would be for world markets. Greece, one of the EU’s shakiest economies, depends heavily on Iranian oil, which they have been receiving on credit. Other EU countries have varying dependencies on oil from the sands of the ancient Persian empire.

Now… the burning question. How likely is it to happen? (more…)

Drumbeats of War - Iran To Stop Oil To EU

“A number of representatives of the Majlis and I are seeking to approve a bill according to which all European countries that made Iran the target of their sanctions will not be able to buy even one drop of oil from Iran, and oil taps will be turned off to them so that they will not play with fire again.”
– Nasser Soudani, member of Iran Majlis (parliament) Energy Committee

This proposed legislation could be ratified as early as Sunday, says official Iranian media… quoting Russian media. Why do they do that? I think when the Iranians quote another source for their own actions, it is to give it more gravitas, more weight, in the eyes of English speaking people who may have a bias against Iran. Is a Russian source more acceptable? Apparently they believe so.

Be that as it may…

Legislation to deny all Western warships entry into the Persian Gulf without Iranian permission was supposed to have been ratified some weeks ago. It is still hanging fire in the Majlis. Seems to have been an empty threat. But it could go though at any time, I suppose. Probably would mean war, though, so there is a good reason to bury it in committee.

This new legislation stopping oil from going to the 27 countries of the European Union may be the same sort of deal, and may never pass.

On the other hand… if it does, the EU is going to be in very dire straits short term. Saudi Arabia can increase oil production some, and other OPEC nations could do the same. But that takes time. The shortfall in the EU would have to be made up from strategic oil reserves… the Saudi’s, the U.S.’s, or any other country willing to donate.

But even that takes time to organize. In the meantime there would be some degree of shortfall.

One wonders what that would do to the price of oil.

One projection based on similar events (more…)

Wednesday, Iranian media formally stepped back from the importance of the Iranian section of last night’s State of the Union address. They are now saying his ‘hostile remarks toward Iran’ are ‘only meant for propaganda purposes’… their boilerplate response for everything that issues from the U.S.. The single oblique reference to a diplomatic solution that was in Iranian media last night no longer appears today.

Their hard and blustery tone makes it appear they have chosen not to accept Obama’s wan hope that peace is still possible. And that is because, they say, war is not possible. The U.S. is simply doing psychological warfare to scare them into giving up their nuclear program and their oil. The naval buildup in the Sea of Oman is only theater.

And they have some reason to say that. There are very mixed messages being thrown at them from the West. Secretary General of NATO Anders Rasmussen today assured Iran that military intervention in the Middle East should be “completely” excluded from their thinking. But why should he even mention it, if it is so impossible?

The British today made the incredible statement that their military pressure on Iran is not serious, only pressure, it doesn’t mean anything real. Really. “This is not a set of actions designed to lead to any conflict but to lead us away from any conflict by increasing the pressure for a peaceful settlement of these disputes,” said the British Foreign Secretary today… as key elements of the British fleet approach the Persian Gulf.

Whether or not the Iranians believe in their hearts that war is not possible… and how could they, since they frantically continue to build up their defenses… their answer is clear: we shall not be moved.

Perhaps this signifies that negotiations are at a dead end also.

If so, that would tend to make a person agree with the inescapable conclusion from President Obama’s ‘peace is still possible’ message… war is most probable.

When I read President Obama’s State of the Union Address delivered Tuesday night at 9 pm EST, I scanned it to see if anything was said about Iran. Toward the end of the hour-plus speech, there it was…

“Look at Iran. Through the power of our diplomacy, a world that was once divided about how to deal with Iran’s nuclear program now stands as one. The regime is more isolated than ever before; its leaders are faced with crippling sanctions, and as long as they shirk their responsibilities, this pressure will not relent.”

I wondered several things, like how China’s agreement to take all the oil Iran can produce could fit into President Obama’s vision of a world that ’stands as one’… but I shrugged it off.

“Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal.”

Okay, standard boilerplate. Exactly what Israel and the Israeli lobby wants to hear. Expected. Ho hum.

Then my eyes opened wide with surprise.

“But a peaceful resolution of this issue is still possible, and far better, and if Iran changes course and meets its obligations, it can rejoin the community of nations.”

Peace… still possible.

Not probable. Things that are ’still possible’ have moved out of the realm of probable. They have passed through the time when all things are possible but some are less likely. They have arrived at the sad place where something is, sigh, still possible, perhaps. But no longer probable.

The opposite of peace is war.

War has replaced peace as most probable.

(more…)

Instant replay: U.S. Secretary of State Panetta head-fakes Iran. He stands on the deck of the old supercarrier USS Enterprise and declares it will transit the Strait of Hormuz in March. The next day, more modern supercarrier USS Abraham Lincoln suddenly leaves the Sea of Oman and transits the Strait of Hormuz without prior announcement. The Iranians let it pass unmolested, whether taken by surprise, or simply exhibiting the better part of valor and retreating from their stance against U.S. warcraft going through the Strait.

Or did they retreat from their position? What they actually told the U.S. was to not send the supercarrier USS Stennis back through the Strait. The U.S. did not. It is said that we sent Stennis back home. So technically, the Iranians were not obligated to stop Lincoln. But it still made them seem like a paper tiger for allowing it through.

Back to the game: as you know, China is buying Iranian oil despite all sanctions. Today, Iranian media showcased two of their new star players, both of them large supertankers which will take to China a substantial amount of Iranian oil that was apparently contracted after the sanctions went into effect. The media also mentioned that oil tankers Davar and Hoda are already on their way toward China, but that they had passed through the Strait of Hormuz about January 11, before the latest U.S. and EU sanctions were enacted.

The Iranians really spotlighted two other ships, both supertankers, one named as Qi Lian San, and another player to be announced later.

(more…)

The European Union today formalized sanctions against the Central Bank of Iran today, long thought to be a sanction that would ‘cripple’ Iran’s oil-based economy. However, at this point in time, according to Iranian official media, “the CBI does not have even one single Rial (Iran’s currency unit) in Europe.”

Likewise, on Monday night, Washington D.C. time, President Obama started activating legislation that is meant to impose ‘crippling’ sanctions on Iran. He shut down payments through Bank Tejarat, Iran’s third-largest bank. Okay, Tejarat is not the supposedly crucial Central Bank, but it should have taken a chunk out of Iran’s oil trade… except India announced today that they would be happy to pay for Iranian oil in gold, and they will take all the oil Iran wants to sell them. China had previously indicated their willingness to do the same, and although another currency had been proposed, it is likely they will now also take the gold train to the light, sweet crude of Iran. Together, those two countries already use nearly half of Iran’s oil production.

Sanctions are dead.

But not forgotten.

Iranian media has floated the idea that Iran should simply cut oil deliveries to the EU… right now. Not wait for the six months it will take for current EU contracts with Iran to run their course while Saudi Arabia gears up production. Now. The Iranians ask the rhetorical question of what would that do to the fragile economies of Europe and the whole West?

So, you ask, what about all the Iranian pronouncements that Western mainstream media - and this blog - interpreted as a promise that Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions were actually imposed… as they were today?

(more…)

A collection of the more piquant bits of… whatever they are… floating in the webosphere. I suggest hip boots as you wade through them. Actually, you can skip reading this post if you are only into serious news. And I promise not to do it again.

The U.S. recognizes Iran’s ‘Nuclear Rights’

The official Iranian news media says Vice-Chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission Hossein Ebrahimi told them that Swiss Ambassador to Tehran Livia Leu Agosti gave Iran a message from President Obama at the same time she delivered one of the copies of the much-publicized message from Obama to Iran. That fourth-hand message was that President Obama ‘recognizes your (Iran’s) nuclear rights’.

Agosti was supposed to have also said that Obama told her to say, “I didn’t want to impose sanctions on your central bank but I had no options but to approve it since a Congress majority had approved the decision.” Which is patently false. Doesn’t mean he didn’t say it. But frankly it does not sound like someone with a grasp of the American Constitution could have said it.

U.S. Warships in the Persian Gulf is just Routine Activity

Did Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta say this? No. Well, yes, he has said that. But he is not the source for today’s statement. (more…)

“Time is running out. France will do everything to avoid a military intervention. A military intervention will not solve the problem, but it will unleash war and chaos in the Middle East…. We need stronger, more decisive sanctions that stop the purchase of Iranian oil and freeze the assets of the central bank, and those who don’t want that will be responsible for the risks of a military conflict…. Help us guarantee peace in the world. We really need you.”

French President Sarkozy was speaking to a group of French ambassadors, but he was obviously speaking to be heard globally… especially by China and Russia, who have said plainly they do not want further sanctions on Iran. And especially Israel, who seems poised for a preemptive strike. Is Sarkozy also speaking to President Obama, who swears the current sanctions have ‘reduced Iran’s economy to a shambles’? Maybe not. More on that later.

Various parts of his speech are quoted different ways by different national media, depending on which way they want it to sound… like a plea to not take military action against Iran… or like a plea for debilitating sanctions against Iran. But either way, the essential concept that something must be done. “The time for waiting is over,” as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu put it.

The problem is, either way is war. Iran keeps swearing if anyone disallows them to sell oil via sanctions, the Iranian Navy will bottle up the Strait of Hormuz and disallow others that privilege. Plain. Simple. And a ‘military intervention’ is outright war. So… war, or… war… take your pick.

Let’s say we pick neither.

(more…)

First the U.S. Carriers…

USS Abraham Lincoln, USS Carl Vinson, USS John Stennis

Two of the three U.S. Aircraft Carrier Battle Groups listed above are now on station south of the Persian Gulf, according to official pronouncements by the U.S. Navy… Lincoln joined Vinson today, Thursday.

The official stance of the U.S. Navy is that Stennis ‘left in the past few days and is now traveling back through the western Pacific’ to its home port. Strange to hear ‘past few days’ rather than an exact time of departure.

The official stance keeps being contradicted by various sources that say Stennis is still on post. So it is not crystal clear whether there are two or three Carrier Battle Groups in the 5th Fleet Area of Responsibility. That is of some importance, since the Iranians specifically forbade the U.S. to return Stennis to the Gulf. In a strictly military sense, it is of less importance, since the U.S. has a truly mighty amount of firepower that is not even being discussed, and whose location is always secret.

Not exactly official, but carried by mainstream media that usually bases their reports on handouts from the government, is analysis that ‘all the elements’ are now in place for the U.S. to send warships back through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf. That echos yesterday’s pronouncement by U.S. Defense Secretary Panetta that the U.S. is “fully prepared to deal with that situation now.”

That still begs the question whether everything is actually in place or not. The French flagship nuclear carrier Charles de Gaulle is likely on station wherever it is meant to be, wherever that may be. But British warships actually used, or like those used, in the Libyan intervention… plus HMS Daring, the new darling of the British fleet… are all still on their way to the Gulf (see previous post). This makes it seem that the gang will not all be there until next week or so.

Israel Demands Action

And now we come to today’s bombshell from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu.

(more…)

HMS Daring made port in Gibraltar on Monday, according to local Gibraltar news. The pride of the British Navy should be in about the middle of the Mediterranean now, sailing toward the Strait of Hormuz.

Same source reports a ’specialist Royal Marines boarding team’ embarked on Daring.

They also report that the arrival of HMS Ledbury, a Hunt Class minehunter, at Gibraltar is ‘imminent’. That information purportedly comes directly from the Royal Navy. Lebbury carries Mine Countermeasures Group 2. They will ‘practice’ hunting and defusing sea mines and ‘other underwater explosive devices’. Ledbury will be detached to a ‘NATO minehunting force’ for six months.

It seems clear that they are eager to ‘practice’ their skills in the Strait of Hormuz during those six months. The last time this class of British warship was active (HMS Brocklesby) it was detached to the NATO minehunting force off Libya.

Also, according to local Portsmouth, England, news, HMS Westminister, a Type 23 Frigate, left to join HMS Daring and Ledbury … and they specifically say that the ships’ destination is the Persian Gulf. Which means that a short sail through the Strait of Hormuz is part of their ‘planned deployment’.

Westminster has been equipped with especially advanced sonar designed for submarine detection. One of the problems with the waters around the Strait is that they are generally shallow, making detection of submarines extremely difficult, especially the diesel subs of the type used by Iran, as sonar pings bounce around the seafloor. A sub can lie on the bottom in wait, and then suddenly spring into action. Unless they are discovered by very sophisticated sonar first.

On an irrelevant side note, Westminister was used in the Bond 007 film Tomorrow Never Dies. Far more relevant… like Brocklesby, it was tasked ‘on short notice’ to join the NATO sea forces for the Libya intervention.

The French nuclear supercarrier Charles de Gaulle is - as far as anyone can tell - still scheduled to arrive in the Sea of Oman about the same time as HMS Daring. It is interesting to note that Charles de Gaulle was also off Libya for the NATO intervention. (more…)