On Tuesday, Iran official English language media was talking about Iran being ‘capable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz’, while Western media was running a remark by Iranian First Vice President Rahimi: “If they impose sanctions on Iran’s oil, not even a drop of oil will be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz.” It seemed that the Iranian government was actually downplaying Rahimi’s remarks somewhat. Keeping things genteel and talking of capabilities.

Now, Wednesday morning Iran local time, official Iranian headlines are saying “Iran will choke Hormuz oil flow”, and the Rahimi remarks being reported by the Iranians are: ‘the enemies need a crushing response from the Islamic Republic to abandon their plots against the Iranian nation’. Interestingly, his actual remarks were a little milder: “Our enemies will give up on their plots against Iran only if we give them a firm and strong lesson.” The Iranian government’s tone is now utterly hardline and very, very angry… crushing and choking… rather than a firm and strong lesson. Is that splitting hairs? Don’t think so. Changing the wording indicates a conscious change of policy. And resolve.

Any more sanctions, and… if Iran’s promises are to be believed… they will take the fatal step of closing the Strait, devil take the hindmost.

Apparently the Obama administration believes them. (more…)

“Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu informed the full Knesset plenum that all options are on the table when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program. The prime minister and the authorized bodies are acting to stop the nuclear armament of Iran. The efforts are ongoing and we will do everything possible to enlist states in the international community, because the Iranian threat is a danger not only to the State of Israel but to world peace.”

That was the shockingly short statement read to the Israeli Knesset (parliament) by one of Netanyahu’s minsters during a special session devoted to a debate on the ‘dilemma of whether to attack Iran’.

Neither the Prime Minister nor Defense Secretary Barak showed up. Just a statement. No chance for questions or argument.

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Almost 6 am Tuesday in the Middle East as I write this. About 3 am the first convoy of Palestinians to be exchanged for Gilad Shalit was reported on its way to detention centers in the West Bank.

Petitions to the high court in Israel by families harmed by the Palestinian terrorists being released were all denied out of hand Monday night, local time. The judges said any delay ‘might put the entire exchange at risk’.

Increasingly, there is ambivalence both in Israel and among the Palestinians about the exchange. Why is not my family member being released, ask many Palestinians. Why so many terrorists for Gilad when my young soldier is never coming back, ask many Israelis.

No word on the 10,000,000 pounds of military men and material hovering over the Middle East in C-5 military airlift planes, waiting to respond to any incidents… I mean just happening to take part in a military exercise at this precise moment in time.

Disturbingly, the U.S. Stock Market looked like a downhill skier today. If it continues its descent tomorrow, we may be in for some heavy sledding.

Any time from now until next Friday is looking pretty good, but Tuesday is crunch day in the Middle East.

That is when Gilad Shalit release day is scheduled. Israeli media has pictures of Gilad, pictures of the Shalit family, pictures of Israeli flags… sometimes pictures of all three together… plastered at the top of everything. Hope, joy and tears. Israeli expectations have been juiced to the max in expectation of the end of five years of waiting for the return of their captured young sergeant.

His father is wiser. He keeps saying, ‘let’s wait and see if it really happens, then celebrate.’

But emotions are running wild, running rampant throughout Israel, and if the prisoner exchange with the Palestinians, at a ratio of 1,000 to 1, does not go through… one can only imagine the guttural roar that will rise from the shattered crowd.

Hamas keeps adding last minute conditions. More women are required to be released. Palestinian terrorists released to Egypt may stay there indefinitely without being deported. It is definitely not a done deal yet.

There are uncountable numbers of reasons for almost everyone in the entire Middle East to not want the exchange to go through. If successful, it will alter the balance of power in the Middle East. One man. But the diplomacy of entire nations hinge on the machinery of his exchange for a thousand Palestinians, including hardcore terrorists. There are many who have something to gain… but even they have the uncertainty of an altered mosaic in the political pattern, and uncertainty always brings danger along with opportunity.

Israeli sources with Mossad connections keep reporting that Iran and Syria are really angry about Hamas’ headquarters being transferred from Syria to Egypt as part of the deal. They may be too close to the action to wonder if that transfer is really a tightening of the relationship between Syria and the Muslim Brotherhood. Either way, it’s just one reason why some may want to sink the exchange before… or while… it’s happening.

To detail all the reasons would take more time than there is. So I’ll cut to the chase.

The U.S. will initiate a military exercise of the most profound importance on Monday in the Middle East.

(and please remember that Monday local time in the Middle East is Sunday night in the U.S.)

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Two articles appeared in mainstream Israeli media at the same time yesterday.

The first swore - “Military ties with Turkey still in effect”
The second reported - “Turkey confirms ‘total suspension’ of defense industry ties with Israel”

I’ve waited to see which was true.

It was the second one. In spades

Turkey has cut all military ties with Israel. (more…)

Suddenly, much important news from the Middle East.

Most cryptic first: Major General Eisenberg, head of the Israeli Defense Forces Home Front Command, said today that the ‘likelihood of an all-out regional war in the Middle East is increasing’ and ‘could potentially include the use of weapons of mass destruction’.

Hard to know exactly which side’s WMD’s he is referring to, since Israel is the only Middle Eastern country assumed to have nuclear weapons. So that could be a little tiny veiled threat thrown into the conversation. I’ve been wondering when Israel would trot out their nuclear deterrent, since they seem unwilling or incapable of dealing with the looming disasters on their borders by conventional means.

But more likely he is hinting at use of chemical or biologic warfare by Israel’s opponents. He said a ‘new weapon’ was used in the latest Gaza barrage of missiles against Israel, although he gives no specifics.

However, the IDF Home Front Command has advised the Israeli public to ’seek shelter under two roofs, rather than one’. Again no specifics as to why or when or how to do that.

As I said, cryptic.

Next up is the title theme, nuclear Iran.

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I haven’t written a post in a few days because the news has been so thin.

Turkey and Israel hate each other again, with Turkey pulling their ambassador and threatening UN sanctions, ostensibly over the deaths during the Gaza flotilla raid… but actually about much deeper issues having to do with Syria and Iran on one side, and the United States on the other.

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“We have a policy of exacting a very heavy price on anyone who attacks us, and this policy is being implemented.”
– Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu

The tally of missile strikes in Israel keeps flying higher and higher… 80 at last count for this weekend. It is unclear if that total includes the Thursday missiles.

At least one death, several critical, and ‘dozens’ of other casualties so far in Israel. Several of each in Gaza from Israeli airstrikes, about a dozen so far.

The Popular Resistance Committees in Gaza, and Hamas, which controls most of the Palestinian armed camps in the Gaza Strip, have claimed responsibility for many of the weekend’s missile and mortar attacks. They had claimed that they were not responsible for the Thursday attacks.

One million Israelis in the south have been directed by authorities to stay indoors until further notice.

In what appears to be collateral damage, three Egyptian policemen were killed by Israeli strikes. That ignited a diplomatic firestorm that very nearly caused the Egypt-Israel peace treaty associated with the Camp David accords to be abrogated today. Last minute negotiations saved this cornerstone of Middle East peace… or at least what passes for peace in the Middle East. Israel apologized. Egypt refrained from recalling their ambassador to Israel.

Both sides have agreed to talk more about the peace treaty when things are calmer. The changes being talked about center on re-militarizing the Sinai, most likely by Egypt, but perhaps also by Israel. That will be a hard bone to gnaw on for both sides, if and when talks come about. The problem is, when will things be calmer? There is a high probability things will get far less calm.

Already reports are surfacing that the Egyptians may not be happy enough with the interim agreement. Restoration of natural gas from Egypt to Israel, which was about to start flowing again, has been put on indefinite hold.

Israeli mainstream media has numerous articles and posts about what the Israeli government is planning.

The question is not whether but how the Israelis will escalate the conflict.

Possibilities include…

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Fog has descended thickly on Syria, its obfuscating tendrils reaching deeply into Turkey and Iran.

Some reports, notably from Syria and Iran, say the pacification of rebellious towns is coming to an end. They say they have seen the tanks and self-propelled big guns that mauled the Syrian citizenry heading back to their lairs.

Not so, say Israeli and U.S. sources. Latest reports from a variety of media put the ravaging machines in central Homs and villages near the Turkish border, still carrying on their grizzly tasks. Those media say the move is a direct provocation to Turkey. And equally provocative to the United States. In street terms, the Syrians are thumbing their noses at both Turkey and the United States, while they position their tanks against a possible, but increasingly unbelievable, threat of military incursion from across the border.

In response to Assad’s iron fisted suppression of his people, the Obama administration announced (more…)

I’ve been waiting to see what would happen when the stern delegation headed by Turkey Foreign Minister Davutoglu was through giving their ‘last warning’ ultimatums to Syrian President Assad today, Tuesday.

Not much.

Assad told them almost nicely to get lost, although it took him over 6 hours to do it. Syria would do whatever they wanted. But they might stop sending tanks against their people. When? Oh, maybe soon. Maybe not.

In the meantime, Assad sacked his defense minister Ali Habib (and may have had him shot: reports are unconfirmed) (more…)