I never post on Sunday. But I’m doing this anyway, because I feel that time is of the essence on this one. It may be quite important. Or not. We’ll see soon.

Yellowcake is a concentrate of uranium ore that is used to make nuclear material. It is the first step on the road to fuel for a peaceful nuclear reactor for power, or the makings of war materials.

Remember just before the Iraq war, when we were told that North Korea was supplying Iraq with yellowcake for their Weapons of Mass Destruction? Remember how that turned out to be based on forged documents? Remember how it helped start that war?

Now there is ‘intelligence information’ circulating that North Korea was shipping 45 tons of yellowcake, enough for 3-5 nuclear devices, to Syria at the time the Israeli airforce destroyed something in Syria, which is widely accepted to have been a war-oriented nuclear plant under construction. After the bombing, the Koreans turned the ship around for home port.

But now ‘intelligence sources’, which can probably be traced to the Israeli Mossad (their equivalent of our CIA but with a much better track record), say that those 45 tons of yellowcake were re-shipped to the Middle East last summer. More specifically, to Iran. This information has also been published by the New Agency of India, although they attributed it to a ‘Western diplomatic source’, which indicates to me that the United States is either involved with this story, or will gladly accept it as true.

Woah Nellie! That’s a game changer… if true. (more…)

Sayyed Nasrallah went to dinner on Thursday. (more…)

This is difficult, because there are not a lot of sources. But this is what seems to be happening.

As detailed in the Major Update two posts ago, Iran’s President Ahmadinejad hosted the leaders of Syria, Lebanon’s Hisballah, and Gaza’s Hamas to put the finishing touches on who does what in time of war. The question was whether that meeting would end with discord for some reason, or with all parties agreeing on what they were to do.

Apparently, it was agreeable.

Ahmadinejad is going on to host in Tehran this weekend an extraordinary meeting of (more…)

- Secretary of State Clinton told the Senate Appropriations Committee today that the US has little choice but to impose sanctions on Iran. However, she asked congress not to restrict her ‘flexibility’ by passing specific legislation. Instead, she ‘hopes’ the Administration will put together some sort of sanctions in ‘30 to 60 days’.

- In the meantime, a delegation headed by US Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg, including representatives from the National Security Council and the Pentagon are headed to Israel Thursday for more ’strategic dialog’ on Iran.

- Israeli Secretary of Defense Barak today told United Nations Secretary Ban today that Iran and Syria are arming Hisballah in Lebanon and Gaza with 40,000 missiles to be used upon the population of Israel.

- Little chance of Russian support for sanctions at the UN, as Russian official Oleg Rozhkov told press today that Russia will decline to work together with the US on any sanctions that could isolate Iran. The Chinese continue to back away from commitment.

So there are two paths down the road.

Congress stands down and lets the Administration do it their way, which has been mostly ineffective, which is why Congress put together the legislation in the first place. But if they do stand down, that gives at least 1-2 months before anything happens, and probably not much even then. That would surely seem a very long road to the Israelis.

Alternately, Congress says they have had enough of the low-impact path of the Administration and goes on to pass draconian legislation against Iran that the President is duty-bound to follow. At least ostensibly. Presidents have ignored Congress before.

But if he does not, and implements Congress’ sanctions… there we go.

A lot of ifs and maybes, but it does look like whatever path is taken, there is trouble ahead. Stay tuned.

First an overview, then the news. Most recent at the bottom of this post. (more…)

Two interesting statements, containing information that the major media felt was unnecessary for the public to know about, were made on February 8. One was by our Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and one by Iran’s spiritual ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

I’ll start with the second one first. The Iranian ruler said to an audience that included the commanders of the Iranian Air Force, “The Iranian nation with its unity and God’s grace will punch the arrogance [of Western powers] on the 22nd of Bahman (Thursday, Feb 11, or the night of the 10th in the US) in a way that will leave them stunned!”

Speculation is wild and wooly about what he could be talking about. (more…)

In the previous post, I mentioned the U.S. naval blockade of Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 that almost led to nuclear war. Did you know there is a bill in Congress right now that includes the following language:

Congress… demands that the President initiate an international effort to immediately and dramatically increase the economic, political, and diplomatic pressure on Iran to verifiably suspend its nuclear enrichment activities by, inter alia, prohibiting the export to Iran of all refined petroleum products; imposing stringent inspection requirements on all persons, vehicles, ships, planes, trains, and cargo entering or departing Iran….
(Underlining is mine for emphasis. For the full text of the legislation, here is a link to the Library of Congress website.)

Most people who have read this language, including international law attorneys, understand it to mean that it authorizes a naval blockade of Iran. (more…)

FEY
Etymology:
Similar to Old English fah, meaning ‘hostile’, and Old High German feigi, meaning ‘doomed’.

Okay, I think I can run with that. The news of the day is certainly hostile, and maybe has elements of the other one, too.

I would like start with what Senator Obama’s running mate, Senator Joe Biden, said at a fund raiser in Seattle on Sunday:

“Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy…. Watch. We’re going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis to test the mettle of this guy…. As a student of history and having served with seven presidents, I guarantee you it will happen.” (more…)