Israeli sources which said country-wide defense drill would begin in Israel Sunday are saying that on Wednesday all Israelis will be requested to go to their shelter or fortified room in their home at 11am and 7pm local time. I do not remember this source giving such exact information about timing in the past.

Israel’s defense cabinet will hold their meeting in a new anti-missile shelter on Wednesday.

Same sources report that President Obama has added the USS George HW Bush Carrier Attack Group to the naval forces that are surrounding Syria, which previously included the USS Bataan Amphibious Strike Group. Joining the party are Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS Barry and USS Truxtun. All these naval movements are open source on the internet. Nothing is secret about them. Clearly the US wants Syria to understand the extent of the power arrayed against them. Though of course there may be other assets in movement which are not openly known.

(more…)

Today a conference of Foreign Ministers of 40 nations gathered in London to decide what to do next in Libya.
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I paused several hours after I realized that sentence would be the opening to this post. The implications are… I don’t have the right word for it yet… staggering? incredible? stupefying?… no, still don’t have it.

I’ve been trying to think of another time in the history of the world when a similar thing happened. My wife came up with the time that I think is closest to it: the situation after World War II, when nations and regions were cobbled together and hacked apart in a post-war orgy of political terraforming.

But then it was a handful of victor nations dividing the spoils. And the major lines were being drawn by the chief executive of each of the conquering nations. The details were handled by state departments, but the decisions were made at the top.

So even that time is not really similar to the current maelstrom with Libya at its eye.

Foreign ministers, appointees of the governments of each of those 40 nations, will determine the political objectives of the… okay, I’ve got to call it something… Libyan Campaign.
(more…)

Libya No Fly War, two posts ago, contained comments on how Russia was using the Libyan… whatever it is… as a stepping stone for increasing their international relevance and power. That thought was encapsulated in the sentence, “The Russian Bear wants to get back its growl.”

Israel Gaza War II, the most recent post, asked, “Do (the Israelis) trust Obama to follow through on promises made by the US to Israel through the decades?

Today, the picture comes into sharper focus, as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu pays a visit to Russian Prime Minister Putin in Moscow while, in an unbelievably amazing coincidence, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal is in town at the same time.

Israeli sources outside the government reported earlier that Putin was trying to finesse a ‘discrete meeting’ between his two visitors, which he hoped would also include the Saudi Chief of Intelligence, whom Al-Faisal brought with him to Moscow.

This meeting is very likely to happen, whether we find out about or not. The odds against those four people being in the same place at the same time by chance (more…)

In the July 12 post Drumbeats of War - Iran War Conference, I wrote:

But things change so quickly in the Middle East. There may be some surprises. No… there will be some surprises. I suppose we’ll find out together, when they happen.

Truer words were never spoken.

This unique and crucial conference is now firmly scheduled for this Friday, July 30.

The list of powerful oil kings scheduled to attend to discuss war with Israel has changed tremendously.

The agenda of the conference seems to have shifted even more seismically.

Whether the changes are for good or for ill, I’ll let you decide.
(more…)

Perhaps that headline seems a little overblown and surprising, but  what is most surprising about it is that it accurately describes the path Iran has chosen.

As Vin Scully, famed announcer for the Los Angeles Dodgers used to say, “It’s a whole new ball game.”

Iran is holding its largest naval exercises ever, over a period of eight days. Along with the usual testing of weapons and gauging the efficiency of the ships’ crews, an entirely new dimension has been added. In fact, the testing and the efficiency trials will come in the second and third phases of the exercise. The brand new part came first, and it was breath taking. (more…)

Things are happening I can hardly believe. That’s why I’ve been checking sources before writing this.

The Obama administration is apparently thinking of giving Palestinians the military shield of US protection under the aegis of our CENTCOM chief, General David Petraeus. (more…)

One of the primary sources for emergency food in the United States is Nitro-Pak

There are good reasons.

1. ‘Iron-Clad’ 120-day Guarantee

2. Free Shipping in the continental United States over $100, most items.

3. Over 50,000 products

5. Guaranteed lowest price. If you find a lower price on an in-stock item, they will match it.

6. In business over 25 years.

7. Most orders ship in 24 -72 hours, although the time can get much longer when there is a perceived crisis, and then they also run out of the most popular items.

They have MRE’s, Emergency Food Units, Freeze-Dried Food.
They have Earthquake Survival Kits, Camping Survival Supplies, and Survival Food.
They even have esoteric emergency supplies like Space Food, Potassium Iodide and Nite-Vision Equipment.

Is this beginning to sound like a commercial?

Yes. It is a commercial. I would like you to go there and see if you find yourself saying… oh… I do not want to wait until it’s too late. I want some things on hand NOW. And start being actually prepared.

Have I gone through this checklist and made sure I have nearly all of what they suggest?
Yes. And I have a lot more of some categories, like first aid supplies.

Humor me. Go to Nitro-Pak. and click on 72 Hr. Survival Kits. Then when the next window comes up, click on 72 Hr Survival Kits. At the top of the page that comes up, you will see **72 Hour Emergency Info & Checklist. Click on that.

You will be shown an extremely well-thought-out emergency checklist.

The first part is a list of reasons why you should actually do something to be prepared. It is interesting.
The second part is the checklist with links to many of the supplies themselves. It is vital.

You can print out this checklist.

It is free.

Please take a little time and consider the checklist. As I’ve said, and as they say… because it is so true… when an emergency strikes it will be too late.

The mutual reflections of US and Israeli policy have been the basis for the current peace in the Middle East. As long as both countries had mirror-image stances on Israel’s security, the Iranian nuclear crisis, and the Palestinians… there was a large degree of stability.

Now those mirrors have started to crack. (more…)

Vice President Biden changed the pace of the dance in the Middle East considerably today at Tel Aviv University.

He made a signal speech in which he linked the Iranian nuclear crisis with forming two states out of Israel, one Jewish and one Palestinian.

“We are determined to keep the pressure on Iran so that it will change its course. And as we do, we will also be seeking to improve relations between the Israelis and Palestinians. They are connected indirectly, but there is a relationship. We call on Arab states who share a mutual concern about Iran — we call on Arab states to support the effort to bring peace between Palestinians and the Israelis, and to take their own steps forward for peace with Israel.”

This new stance of the Obama Administration is the first time that the United States has linked the two problems. Now they say that the solution for the Iranian nuclear crisis resides in the solution of the problems between Israel and the Arabs.

What’s the problem with that?

The “Palestinian Question” has been smack dab in the middle of the world’s major problems since before 1948. We are no closer to a solution now than we were in 1948. Perhaps we are actually much further away. And yet the Obama Administration thinks it can orate a solution in a few weeks.

What chutzpah!
(Leo Rosten in The Joys of Yiddish defines chutzpah as “gall, brazen nerve, effrontery, incredible ‘guts,’ presumption plus arrogance such as no other word and no other language can do justice to.”)

The chances of it happening, with the primary parties and other ’stakeholder’ nations all pulling back from the heavy shoving of the United States… are slim at best.

To say that it is a necessary part of the solution for the Iranian nuclear crisis is hitching the Obama Administration’s Middle East policy to a falling star.

It’s going for broke on a 1,000,000 to 1 shot.

I suppose that actually makes sense in a way, though.

If the de facto gasoline sanctions against Iran are not working… and they are not working… then what is there short of a naval blockade or military strike?

Peace in the Middle East. A chimera that has eluded the world for many decades.

Good luck.

Today’s big announcement in the major media is that Royal Dutch Shell and ‘oil-trading giant’ Vitol have suspended gasoline sales to Iran. That news has been met with much applause and patriotic glad tidings. Yea! They’re on our side!

The move by Shell isn’t new. You are just now hearing about these things. Don’t you find that odd?

Truth is, the world’s three largest gasoline suppliers, Vitol, Trafigura and Glencore, have been stopping their sales to Iran beginning late last year. (Why they’re doing it is a matter of conjecture. Its it pressure by the US and allies, or just a businessman’s instinct to get out of the way of big trouble? They aren’t saying.)

But in any event, it is not working. The Chinese’ shadowy gasoline interests… including Shen Hua, their very aggressive oil exploration company that has been making deals all over Africa… have been picking up the slack in gasoline sales to Iran. So have some Dubai traders, who obviously will do pretty much anything for money since their economy collapsed.

The world now knows that ‘harsh sanctions’ on gasoline for Iran obviously will not work. The ’sanctions’ are de facto in place, and it isn’t making a grease spot of difference.

It would take a naval blockade to keep gasoline from Iran.

Are we ready for that?