In the July 12 post Drumbeats of War - Iran War Conference, I wrote:

But things change so quickly in the Middle East. There may be some surprises. No… there will be some surprises. I suppose we’ll find out together, when they happen.

Truer words were never spoken.

This unique and crucial conference is now firmly scheduled for this Friday, July 30.

The list of powerful oil kings scheduled to attend to discuss war with Israel has changed tremendously.

The agenda of the conference seems to have shifted even more seismically.

Whether the changes are for good or for ill, I’ll let you decide.
(more…)

Perhaps that headline seems a little overblown and surprising, but  what is most surprising about it is that it accurately describes the path Iran has chosen.

As Vin Scully, famed announcer for the Los Angeles Dodgers used to say, “It’s a whole new ball game.”

Iran is holding its largest naval exercises ever, over a period of eight days. Along with the usual testing of weapons and gauging the efficiency of the ships’ crews, an entirely new dimension has been added. In fact, the testing and the efficiency trials will come in the second and third phases of the exercise. The brand new part came first, and it was breath taking. (more…)

Things are happening I can hardly believe. That’s why I’ve been checking sources before writing this.

The Obama administration is apparently thinking of giving Palestinians the military shield of US protection under the aegis of our CENTCOM chief, General David Petraeus. (more…)

One of the primary sources for emergency food in the United States is Nitro-Pak

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They even have esoteric emergency supplies like Space Food, Potassium Iodide and Nite-Vision Equipment.

Is this beginning to sound like a commercial?

Yes. It is a commercial. I would like you to go there and see if you find yourself saying… oh… I do not want to wait until it’s too late. I want some things on hand NOW. And start being actually prepared.

Have I gone through this checklist and made sure I have nearly all of what they suggest?
Yes. And I have a lot more of some categories, like first aid supplies.

Humor me. Go to Nitro-Pak. and click on 72 Hr. Survival Kits. Then when the next window comes up, click on 72 Hr Survival Kits. At the top of the page that comes up, you will see **72 Hour Emergency Info & Checklist. Click on that.

You will be shown an extremely well-thought-out emergency checklist.

The first part is a list of reasons why you should actually do something to be prepared. It is interesting.
The second part is the checklist with links to many of the supplies themselves. It is vital.

You can print out this checklist.

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Please take a little time and consider the checklist. As I’ve said, and as they say… because it is so true… when an emergency strikes it will be too late.

The mutual reflections of US and Israeli policy have been the basis for the current peace in the Middle East. As long as both countries had mirror-image stances on Israel’s security, the Iranian nuclear crisis, and the Palestinians… there was a large degree of stability.

Now those mirrors have started to crack. (more…)

Vice President Biden changed the pace of the dance in the Middle East considerably today at Tel Aviv University.

He made a signal speech in which he linked the Iranian nuclear crisis with forming two states out of Israel, one Jewish and one Palestinian.

“We are determined to keep the pressure on Iran so that it will change its course. And as we do, we will also be seeking to improve relations between the Israelis and Palestinians. They are connected indirectly, but there is a relationship. We call on Arab states who share a mutual concern about Iran — we call on Arab states to support the effort to bring peace between Palestinians and the Israelis, and to take their own steps forward for peace with Israel.”

This new stance of the Obama Administration is the first time that the United States has linked the two problems. Now they say that the solution for the Iranian nuclear crisis resides in the solution of the problems between Israel and the Arabs.

What’s the problem with that?

The “Palestinian Question” has been smack dab in the middle of the world’s major problems since before 1948. We are no closer to a solution now than we were in 1948. Perhaps we are actually much further away. And yet the Obama Administration thinks it can orate a solution in a few weeks.

What chutzpah!
(Leo Rosten in The Joys of Yiddish defines chutzpah as “gall, brazen nerve, effrontery, incredible ‘guts,’ presumption plus arrogance such as no other word and no other language can do justice to.”)

The chances of it happening, with the primary parties and other ’stakeholder’ nations all pulling back from the heavy shoving of the United States… are slim at best.

To say that it is a necessary part of the solution for the Iranian nuclear crisis is hitching the Obama Administration’s Middle East policy to a falling star.

It’s going for broke on a 1,000,000 to 1 shot.

I suppose that actually makes sense in a way, though.

If the de facto gasoline sanctions against Iran are not working… and they are not working… then what is there short of a naval blockade or military strike?

Peace in the Middle East. A chimera that has eluded the world for many decades.

Good luck.

Today’s big announcement in the major media is that Royal Dutch Shell and ‘oil-trading giant’ Vitol have suspended gasoline sales to Iran. That news has been met with much applause and patriotic glad tidings. Yea! They’re on our side!

The move by Shell isn’t new. You are just now hearing about these things. Don’t you find that odd?

Truth is, the world’s three largest gasoline suppliers, Vitol, Trafigura and Glencore, have been stopping their sales to Iran beginning late last year. (Why they’re doing it is a matter of conjecture. Its it pressure by the US and allies, or just a businessman’s instinct to get out of the way of big trouble? They aren’t saying.)

But in any event, it is not working. The Chinese’ shadowy gasoline interests… including Shen Hua, their very aggressive oil exploration company that has been making deals all over Africa… have been picking up the slack in gasoline sales to Iran. So have some Dubai traders, who obviously will do pretty much anything for money since their economy collapsed.

The world now knows that ‘harsh sanctions’ on gasoline for Iran obviously will not work. The ’sanctions’ are de facto in place, and it isn’t making a grease spot of difference.

It would take a naval blockade to keep gasoline from Iran.

Are we ready for that?

Vacuum. I love that word, because I can never spell it correctly. It’s always a challenge. I remember there are two same letters, but then I think maybe there are two pairs of same letters.

Apparently the Obama Administration has a similar problem with the word ’sanctions’. Not in spelling the word, but in figuring out what should go into it at the United Nations discussions with the other veto nations.

Instead of the crippling terms promised Israel to keep them from striking Iran, now there are vague references to ’strengthened vigilance’. Oil and gas are off the table. No arms embargo. And even then, China keeps saying, ‘well, I don’t know… too harsh still…’

Poof. (more…)

According to KB Mashynostroyeniya, the Russian manufacturer of the IGLA-S man-portable air defense missile system, it is:

“…designed to engage front line aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles and UAVs under direct visibility conditions and in the night time, head-on and tail chase, in background clutter and thermal countermeasures environment. IGLA-S MANPADS is a new-generation system featuring considerably extended firing range and enhanced kill probability against aerial targets and possessing a new quality for this class of systems - high engagement effectiveness against small-size targets like cruise missiles and UAVs.”

Why am I posting this information?

Because according to Israeli sources, the Syrians have given these things to Hizballah in Lebanon.

Israel has warned Syria not to give Hizballah such high value strategic weapons, or Israel would be compelled to strike targets INSIDE SYRIA. (more…)

In an abrupt about face, the Obama Administration has backed off sanctions for Iran.

Hillary Clinton told reporters that the US was no longer fast-tracking any sanctions whatsoever for Iran’s pursuit of nuclear materials.

“We are moving expeditiously and thoroughly in the Security Council, I can’t give you an exact date, but I would assume some time in the next several months,” she said.

It is a deliberate slap in the face to Israel. The US has been promising sanctions on the deepest level of commitment.

Israelis are not taking it lightly. Jerusalem Post comments run from ‘let’s bomb Iran now’ to ‘let’s bomb Iran now.’ Not much of a spread.

Is that the Obama Administration’s plan? To have Israel start a war? Looks like it.

The only other player that could make a difference is the US Congress. There is legislation pending that would force unilateral US sanctions on Iran. Does Obama just want to be forced, so he can throw up his hands and say ‘they made me do it’? How do you feel about that?

Surely, the Iranians now will NEVER back down. They have made the greatest military nation on earth kowtow to their ambitions.

Oil is above $80 again.

Buy food. Get water. Store it.