The various faces of the Israeli government had been hemming and hawing for months about presenting a believable threat of a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Feet were placed in mouths, taken out, put back in. The threat was semi-credible, but not very solid.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political masterstroke of conjuring up a national unity government has solidified the threat and made it palpable.

The first action of the new government was to meet with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who is responsible for negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program vs. U.S./EU/UN sanctions in advance of the May 23 P5 meeting.

Aston few to Jerusalem today to meet with Netanyahu and his new Vice Premier Mofaz (Chairman of Israel’s Kadima party), his Defense Minister Barak, and his Foreign Minister Liberman, according to Israeli mainstream media. It was not reported whether Netanyahu or Ashton asked for the meeting, but it seems likely the UN official came at Netanyahu’s request.

Netanyahu and his posse had a distinct message for Ashton, one that was clearly meant to be transmitted to all those in the West who are trying to cobble together a deal with Iran.

They told her in no uncertain terms that in order for an agreement to be acceptable to Israel, Iran must:

1. Absolutely halt all uranium enrichment whatsoever.
2. Remove all enriched uranium from Iran.
3. Dismantle the underground nuclear facility of Fordo near Qom.

Iran has already said distinctly, many times, that they will do none of the above. (more…)

In the wee hours of Tuesday morning, Israel time, a surprising, dramatic, and quite fascinating event occurred.

Prime Minister Netanyahu formed a national unity government.

That means early elections, scheduled for September 4, will not happen. The dissolution of the Knesset (parliament) will not happen.

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The substance of the shadowy nuclear deal spawned by P5 and clandestine channels between the U.S. and Iran is appearing like invisible ink heated by a light bulb (lemon juice works like that, by the way).

If… stress ‘if’… President Obama is sanguine about handing Iran a pass on IAEA inspections for a continuing nuclear program that hopefully… stress ‘hopefully… maintains just below the threshold of actually making a nuclear weapon… what’s in it for Israel?

A couple of hours ago, we found out. The Republican side of the isle has proposed giving Israel more than 2/3’s of a billion dollars… 680 million dollars, to be exact, which we would need to borrow from China… to bring their domestic Iron Dome missile defense system from 3 units to 14. That’s the number the Israeli Defense Forces and associated military-industrial complex says is needed to make the country secure from missile attack. Of course the efficiency rate of Iron Dome is at most 80 percent… perhaps significantly less in a real barrage situation with thousands of missiles coming in… but never mind that. Note the offer is not coming from Democratic legislators, who traditionally like to give Israel money for domestic political reasons. Their assumed cooperation on this measure seems to make it an easy slam dunk.

Will the Israeli’s take the sop and let Obama have his way with the Iranians? It’s not clear.

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Just in a few minutes ago: U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon says the UN Observer mission needs both fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft and troops on the ground to ensure the Syrian ceasefire, according to U.S. mainstream media.

He said the proposed force of 250 observers are “not enough considering the current situation and the vastness of the country”.

Tomorrow, Ki-moon will formally propose at the United Nations that the EU provide the aircraft. It is not clear where he wants the troops to come from, nor the number of boots on the ground.

Also today, the Arab League (AL)… which has booted both Syria and Iran out of the group… met with the UN-AL Special Envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan. It is important to keep in mind that Annan is tied tightly to the AL, which makes Syria and Iran and Russia nervous about the real intent of his ‘peace plan’…

… with some reason. In the meeting, the AL representatives from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and other nations which also belong to the Gulf Cooperation Council, discussed with Annan ‘how to enhance the mission’. Shortly after this meeting, Ki-moon announced his proposal.

U.S. official media paints a bleak and dire picture of the Syrian ceasefire, using words such as ‘teetering’ and ‘unravels’. (more…)

A sort of funny thing happened to me today. Governor Romney called me.

Well, not actually him. One of his staff, who asked if I’d like to ask the governor a question on live radio, a ‘townhall’ kind of thing. I have no idea why.

I said sure.

They asked what question I’d ask.

I said I would ask him if he thought there would be a military strike on Iran before the presidential elections.

Very silent for a moment. Two. Then, “Yes, I’m sure Governor Romney would like to answer that question. Just hang on and we’ll try to get you on shortly.”

I waited. Until the time for ‘callers’ questions was over. I did not get to ask my question.

I do not wonder why.

Between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, the two of them have ruled out days, weeks, months and years until such a strike. If I were being facetious, I would remark that leaves only seconds, minutes, or hours.

Not being facetious, I’ll just say that the remark of some astute Israeli sources with Mossad connections said it best. A tower of Babel. So much talking, so little comprehensible said. Issues ignored. Fantasies promoted. And the lies. Oh, the lies.

Out of the babbling, there are a couple of flashes that may contain hints and insights. Or at least a fey sort of gallows entertainment. Though I’m sure that is not the word I should use for it. But gallows humor is no better. Perhaps fascination? Never mind… I’ll get on with it.

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“We’ve waited for diplomacy to work.
We’ve waited for sanctions to work.

None of us can afford to wait much longer.”

– Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, about an hour ago at AIPAC 2012

The above is the heart of Netanyahu’s speech.

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The previous post highlighted this phrase in Obama’s speech at AIPAC: “… Israel must always have the ability to defend itself, by itself, against any threat.”

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also found it to be the most significant moment of the president’s speech. He is being reported in mainstream U.S. media as saying that was the part that he ‘perhaps most appreciated’.

However, Israeli mainstream media headlines tend to quote it a little differently, saying ‘Prime Minister Welcomes Obama’s Recognition of Israel’s Right ‘To Defend Itself By Itself”.

What’s different? Just one word… Right… instead of Ability. Obama did say something like that in another part of his speech. He said Iran “… should not doubt Israel’s sovereign right to make its own decisions about what is required to meet its security needs.” But it was not part of the other phrase. The editors put the two together because the Israelis are hearing it together. Right to defend itself, by itself.

The rest of Obama’s speech is being analyzed and picked over. His defense of a sane peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and his put downs of war and ‘loose talk’ about it are being duly noted. Perhaps I should say dully noted. The dusty U.S. military strike option is just still sitting there on the table.

Ears perk up slightly at his promise the U.S. will certainly not allow Iran to get the bomb. But then he lapses back into sanctions and the world audience lapses back into coma. Nothing at all concrete about how long the sanctions must drag on first. No red line, of course.

All the excitement was about Obama seeming to signal a green light for an Israeli preemptive strike on Iran, if they should choose to do so. Netanyahu’s glee at apparently receiving a green light may suggest that decision is about to be made.

In current world headlines… oddly… the most quoted piece of Obama’s speech is a phrase that seems to amplify the green light AND promise the U.S. will reinforce the Israelis once the shooting starts: “So there should not be a shred of doubt by now. When the chips are down, I have Israel ’s back.”

Hard not to apply that as an absolute promise that America will throw its military weight behind Israel after a preemptive attack on Iran.

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In Las Vegas, the headliner always appears last. Same with most everything. Whoever is considered most important gets the last word.

The speaking order for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has been published. It had not been formalized before today, and there were some doubts what the order would be. Always the pinnacle annual affair of U.S.-Israel political relations, this year’s festivities have been given overarching significance as the forum in which both nations will elucidate their positions on a military strike on Iran.

Since the two sovereign powers seem to be in some degree of disagreement on what should be done about Iran, speaking order becomes quite important. The last to speak gets to hear the other side’s arguments and can answer them in rebuttal if they so choose. Or even change their stance to one-up the prior speakers.

Of the three most crucial speakers, Israeli President Simon Peres is scheduled to go first, on Sunday morning. The presidency in Israel is a somewhat honorific office. What the president says is sometimes listened to, but he has little actual power. Sort of like an American vice president. Except the Israeli president does not take the place of the head of government in time off need like a U.S. VP does. Perhaps it is fair to say he is a functionary. So it makes perfect sense that he would take the least important position of speaking first.

President Obama will follow the Israeli president, also Sunday morning.

The two presidents will meet privately at 11:15 after both have given their speeches.

————— Obama and Netanyahu ——————-
Addendum: As of the wee hours of Sunday Morning, Washington D.C. time, when this addendum was posted, the meeting between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu on March 5 is still scheduled to take place before Netanyahu makes his speech at AIPAC. There is still some talk about a joint statement being released after their meeting, but no official word that the Prime Minister has agreed in advance to such a release, nor whether it would be released before or after Netanyahu’s speech to AIPAC.
——————- March 5 meeting ————————

These meetings will give the two nations a last chance for some fine tuning of their message before the main event.

Which is Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. The real power in Israel.

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“At a time when there is not a lot of sympathy for Iran and its only real ally is on the ropes, do we want a distraction in which suddenly Iran can portray itself as a victim?”
– President Obama, in remarks made earlier this week, published today, Friday, March 2

Sometimes in the heat of action… which for a politician is always words… a president, or a president’s ghost writer, says just a bit more than they intend to reveal. This may be the case here.

One might wonder under what circumstances an action, one that may result in beginning World War III, could be considered merely ‘a distraction’. The only sane answer is that the speaker must not think that a strike on Iran could lead to such a cataclysm. And frankly, how sane is that?

But we must include in our considerations that there is a faction in the Obama administration which has been reported by world media as whispering in the president’s ear… softly saying that Iran would surely make only a ‘limited response’ if their nuclear facilities were razed by either a U.S. or Israeli strike. Has Obama believed those whispering voices? If so, why does he not just green light the Israelis? Boom. Mission accomplished, with minimal risk to U.S. assets in the Middle East. Russia and China are sure to look the other way. Why wait for sanction after sanction to fail?

Unless he truly believes sanctions are working their slow poison on the Iranian body politic.

Then he would believe that a strike against Iran, no matter how small a price would have to be paid for it, would be premature. Which is how all media is summarizing today’s statements by Obama. Which bodes ill for the March 5 meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who continues to pressure our president toward a ‘red line’ statement for a clarity as to exactly when a military strike on Iran would become necessary.

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The March 5th meeting between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is being ballyhooed and promoted like a summer blockbuster movie.

The key hook is today’s White House proposal to the Israeli PM’s office that Mr. Obama and Mr. Netanyahu release a joint statement following their meeting ‘to present a single U.S.-Israeli front in order to leverage pressure on Iran’, according to Israeli mainstream media.

After that caviler move by the Obama administration, if a statement is not released after the meeting it will underline that the two countries are completely at odds with each other on the Iranian question. Especially if the Israelis accept this proposal. Great expectations are being created, and the most likely outcome is that those expectations will be cruelly dashed.

Which is perhaps the whole intent of the meeting. Deep distancing between the two countries. Obama showing Iran that it will not be America’s fault if Israel bombs them. For the umpteenth time, that will never be accepted by Iran, so why try? Good question. Either the politicos choreographing the two nations’ dance with war are not very bright, or there is something that is not obvious to us unwashed masses. Maybe I’m the one who is not very bright, because I can’t imagine what that would be, except to try and convince not very bright legislators that if there is enough distancing, Iran will not retaliate against U.S. assets in the Middle East. But who would be that gullible?

Of course, it is vaguely possible that there will be a joint statement. If so, it should be a doozy.

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