This post is in the high alert category because of the potential for sudden war today.
It probably will not happen… but it might be wise to be prepared and keep vigilant.
Strong caveat: reader discretion highly advised. This post carries ‘High Alert’ category status because if true, it deserves that category. Perhaps even higher. But the information is not confirmed, despite all efforts to find independently confirming sources. Everything you are about to read depends upon sources who are very often both ahead of the curve and accurate… but not always. I believe the bulk of the information is actual and factual. But please take everything with a grain of salt and perhaps even a little cynicism. However… if even mostly true, war may be closer than it seemed a few hours ago. In any event, all this says volumes about the critical importance of the P5+1 plus Iran meeting this weekend, assuming there will be a meeting instead of a war going on.
In the run up to the P5+1 plus Iran meeting scheduled for some time between April 13 and 15, the West is pulling out all the stops to show Iran the massive firepower surrounding them, according to Israeli media with Mossad and military sources.
It is clearly a bald attempt to frighten the Iranians into rolling over at the meeting. It is meant to show them that if they do not do whatever the West wants regarding their nuclear program, Iran can be hit hard, very hard, militarily. It does not guarantee the West will actually slam the hammer down on Iran, now or ever. But certainly, it is gunboat diplomacy on the most intense level short of an actual attack.
It is he largest air-oriented military exercise ever conducted around the Persian Gulf. It started yesterday, Sunday local time, and is scheduled to end April 15, during the P5+1 meeting. On center stage are U.S. supercarriers USS Enterprise and USS Abraham Lincoln, both sitting in the Gulf launching massive air wings numbering a hundred or more. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain equal that number of warplanes in the air over the Persian Gulf.
There are simulations of: opening the Strait of Hormuz in case Iran closes it… protecting Gulf states’ oil facilities… airstrikes on Iranian naval ships, large and small… screening Western warships from Iranian missiles… and probably much more that we do not know about. I’m guessing the practice strikes on the Iranian Navy is particularly grating on the Iranians.
As soon as Iran perceived the aggressiveness and scale of the exercise, the Iranian ambassador to Kuwait delivered a message to the Kuwaiti Chief of Staff that Iran would ‘attack the Gulf nations taking part in the exercise unless they withdrew at once.’ That message was forwarded to the other GCC commanders and the U.S.
There is little chance of the Gulf nations withdrawing from the exercise. The West and Saudi Arabia has them locked into the exercise absolutely. Bahrain, headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, is also the headquarters for this exercise. Saudi Arabia would not withdraw under any circumstances, their hatred for Iran is so strong.
As of this writing, Iran has not come through on the promised attack.
That does not mean they will not do it.
But I personally think… maybe ‘hope’ is a better word… that they will calm down and realize it is a show for their benefit, trying to break them down before the P5 meeting, and demure.
If not, World War III is at the front door.
Syria news…
Get a cup of coffee… this may take some time.
There are a lot of very serious things going on at the moment, three of which could plunge the world into war. Two of those… instantly.
First up, the big news of the hour:
SYRIA: car bombs kill 27, about 100 other casualties
“The IAF destroyed launching pits of Fajr long range rockets that can hit Tel Aviv.”
– Ofir Gendelman, spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu
The quote above is the tip of a ponderously big iceberg bearing down on the Middle East. If it is not a mirage.
According to Israeli sources with Mossad connections, the Israeli government passed a ’stern’ warning to Jihad Islami through Egyptian Intelligence Minister Muwafi. The message was that if any of their Fajr-5 missiles - made in Iran, and far more deadly than Grads - were fired into Israel, the response would be ‘on a different scale’ from the current level of airstrikes.
That would seem to promise something on the order of 2008-9’s Cast Lead incursion into Gaza by Israel, ostensibly to clean out the missiles Gaza was hoarding and hiding back then. That operation was roundly castigated by most of the world for its callous collateral damage. Worse, in the eyes of the Israelis, it obviously did not destroy all the missiles… nor Gaza’s capacity to get lots more. Many in Israel, including high-ranking military leaders, say that was because it did not go far enough. They were pulled out before they could get the job done. Many in Israel have wanted Cast Lead 2 for a long, long time.
Sunday, Israel-Gaza time: the rain of missiles from Gaza into Israel continues.
Total since Friday is at least 110. If one adds up the numbers from consecutive reports since Friday, it could be as high as 140. Or even 180. Injuries to 18 people, only one serious. No deaths.
Israel has made perhaps 8 airstrikes into Gaza since the missile barrage began. The Israeli people might have expected more, but Israeli sources with Mossad connections say the IAF is being more cautious with their airstrikes because the Gazans are now sporting Russian-made, shoulder launched anti-air missiles. Confirmed are 3 strikes on Saturday night and Sunday morning. Gazans killed now totals 18.
As mentioned in the previous post, there are efforts centering in Egypt to reestablish a semi-truce along the lines of the previous truce, which held for some months before the current action began.
But there is a twist this time.
Topping the agenda of the Hamas delegation in Cairo is a directive to ’stop Israeli raids’, according to Israeli mainstream media. Same media is reporting that Egyptian Foreign Minister Amr ‘denounced IDF operations in the Gaza Strip, calling for the IDF to cease actions in Gaza immediately’.
It looks like the Gazans are not so much looking for a temporary truce. Looks like they want a settlement where the IDF is no longer allowed to assassinate and make airstrikes at will.
Over 100 missiles have been fired from Gaza into Israel. 15 people have been ‘treated for rocket-related injuries. One, a worker from Thailand, remains in serious condition.
Israeli airstrikes on Gaza have killed at least 15. Number of airstrikes so far not known, but are known to have killed at least 15 ‘combatants’. Israeli sources with Mossad connections say the Israeli airstrikes are ‘tapering off’, presumably as a silent offer to deescalate the situation.
However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said on Saturday, Israel time, “We will continue to attack anyone who intends to attack the citizens of the state of Israel.”
Israel has admitted assassinating Zuheir al-Qaisi, head of the Popular Resistance Committees in Gaza, and Muhamad Ahmad al-Hanani, who was among the jailed Palestinians Israel swapped for Gilead Shalit. The Israeli official announcement said the two were planning another major terrorist attack along the Eliat Highway - also called Highway 12 - which runs along the Egypt-Israel border. Eight Israelis died in an August, 2011, attack.
Iranian media says that the Friday afternoon strike was carried out by an Israeli UAV firing missiles into a car carrying both men.
In response, over 60… some sources are saying over 80… Grad and Qassam missiles have been fired into Israel so far, starting Friday evening and continuing through now, Saturday morning Israeli time. Israel has sent in a number of airstrikes - at least three - into Gaza, saying they have hit missile launchers and their firing personnel.
Wednesday night in the Middle East, a Chinese assembly line started up in Syria. But it had nothing to do with making things. The purpose was to process ALL the Chinese nationals in Syria out of the country on hastily chartered aircraft as quickly as possible… save 100 brave and hearty souls who will be left behind to guard primarily oil equipment, possibly Chinese special forces. The Chinese had US$17 billion in oil and gas projects damaged when they left Libya too late and their equipment too unguarded, as the war/civil war there got suddenly too hot.
The question: is this exodus for fear of an escalated civil war in Syria? Or the real thing: full blown war between Syria and… whom? If so, which side will start it?
Smart money is betting on the war option, not just a civil war. Unless there has been a substantial influx of foreign arms or foreign troops, Syrian President Assad’s opposition is probably in no position to escalate their conflict with the government to such an extent as to make the Chinese flee for their lives.
So… is the U.S. et. al. about to invade Syria for ‘humanitarian’ reasons? Or is Israel et. al. about to make their preemptive strike on Iran, which would surely involve Syria?
Or has Syria and Iran been following the Obama-Netanyahu exchanges and decided to preempt the preemption?
Western and Israel mainstream media is carrying a report supposedly from the Iranian Student’s News Agency (ISNA) that Iran had not blocked an oil shipment to Greece.
The official and only English language ISNA website is not currently carrying any story relating to the Greek oil shipment.
There is an article saying funds from EU purchases of Iranian oil are going through, and are not being blocked.
Official English language Iranian media and official media intended for domestic Iranian consumption are still saying the shipment was blocked. The later source is now also saying that the tanker has ‘returned home unloaded’. Pretty definitive.
There is a pic of the tanker Stone Eagle associated with the story, but it is not clear if that is just a file photo having nothing to do with Sunday’s action, or if that is the ship that was refused filling. Information on an oil tanker called Stone Eagle, if there is one, does not seem to be on the net currently.
The Iranian Students’ News Agency may not be the most accurate source for this story. But, perhaps the Western and Israel media got a prerelease copy of their post, and it is still to come onto the website? That may be a little generous, though.
So at the moment, without some solid confirming source for the ISNA information, it does appear that Iran refused to fill the tanker bound for Greece.
In any event, whatever happened, even if it was an unfulfilled threat, one might expect the oil markets and stock markets to react strongly when they open for Monday trade.
In what may be Iran’s final warning shot across the bow on the issue of cutting oil to the EU, Iran “refrained from supplying the 500,000-barrel cargo to the Greek tanker which was due to deliver it to Hellenic Petroleum refinery”, according to official Iranian media.
Iranian Oil Minister Qassemi has been telling EU countries they would soon have to make a final decision on oil imports from Iran, warning them they would be sanctioned by Tehran otherwise.
Apparently… stress apparently… Greece will not be able to pick up any more oil from Iran unless they agree to the ironclad 2 to 5 year contract demanded by Iran. This could have disastrous effects on the Greek economy, since they have been getting oil from Iran on credit. That could have a tidal effect on the EU and world economy. The Greek bailout may have been torpedoed by this Iranian move.
Apparently… stress apparently… the cutoff to the rest of the EU may well follow in short order if Greece does not accede to Iranian demands.
Will anyone take this as an act of war? Or will it spur some action that will be taken as such? Things could happen quickly now.
ON another issue:
Aid corridors through Syria do not seem to be happening, and even if they do, Saudi Arabia and Israel are both very unhappy about President Obama stalling on the Syria issue, according to Israeli sources. Fireworks of one kind or another may ensue.
