The Iranians are very excited.

Seven out of seven top stories on the most official Iranian media were about the P5+1 plus Iran meeting (P5 for short from now on). Eleven out of thirteen front page stories for the second most official Iranian media were about P5, the lead story marked URGENT. Very excited.

And who can blame them? The ’stick’ of the huge Persian Gulf exercise was followed by the cordial ‘carrots’ offered in the meeting. The West, Britain in particular, was very warm toward Saeed Jalili, Iran’s Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, who masterfully represented Iran at P5. He had bilateral talks with everyone there… except Wendy Sherman, who turns out to be Hillary Clinton’s bosom buddy, whom the Iranians say is the Secretary of State’s ‘closest and most influential adviser’. Despite repeated invitations, Jalili refused to meet separately with Sherman. Obviously, the ’stick’ had not been entirely forgotten by Jalili.

It seems as though the Iranians caught a glimpse of an opportunity to slip in a wedge of their own between the U.S. and our EU allies. If so, that thinking was not discouraged by the Europeans. It may be that the Iranians will find this unlikely gambit disappointing, but it is an attempt without cost to them, so they may feel there is no reason not to try.

After all, Iran got just about everything they could have wanted from the meeting. First of all, time. They gave the West enough to keep everyone talking, so there will be a second meeting, scheduled for May 23 in Bagdad, on Iran’s turf. In the meantime, Jalili’s deputy Ali Baqeri and EU foreign policy deputy chief Helga Schmid ‘have been assigned to draft an agreement on cooperation between Tehran and the six world powers’ on not only the nuclear issue, but other areas of conflict as well (perhaps Syria?) according to the URGENT article in Iranian official media.

And now for the flies circling ’round the roses.

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The United Nations Security council will vote on Saturday to send a small team of unarmed UN observers to Syria. The vote nearly came on Friday, at the urgings of the U.S…. but Russia was not comfortable with the language. They say the last thing they want is a situation like that which came out of the Libyan resolution they were sweet-talked into.

So the Russians have submitted their own resolution, reportedly a very short one. Simple. It is to be seen whether it will be enough for the U.S. and Saudi Arabia and Turkey, etc. Turkey is loudly calling for humanitarian corridors, now, now, now. As is SecState Clinton. As is the House of Saud.

The small cadre of observers is almost a done deal. The questions are… whether Russia can hold the line to limit an incursion into Syria to a level Assad can accept,…and whether the West will take whatever it says in the resolution and use it to justify corridors and/or a buffer zone. Actually, both of those questions seem likely to be answered with a yes.

The brittle truce still holds, sort of. (more…)

Mid-level professional diplomats from the U.S. checked in Friday morning, Istanbul time, according to mainstream Israeli media. No one of importance from the Untied States will attend.

The Iranian delegation, headed by the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, did the same, according to Iranian official media. Jalili has cachet in Iran, which may make him the senior diplomat attending the meeting.

Functionaries from Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany also arrived Friday.

Official U.S. media says all seven nations have been holding ‘preliminary meetings’ throughout the day. Iran has said specifically that they have met with Russia and China, apparently to make sure all three countries are on the same page about what Iran will accept and not accept.

Usually, the pre-meeting sessions are the real meetings. The official meeting is just pro forma. A joint statement if all are in agreement - or individual statements if not - are usually issued after the official meeting. But by now everyone attending probably knows exactly what the bottom line will be.

As you know, Saturday morning Istanbul time is Friday evening U.S. time. So by Saturday morning U.S. time, it should be all over.

Maybe even sooner.

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“That monitoring mission will only be a force for peace and security if it enjoys the full freedom of action within Syria. And that means freedom of movement, secure communications, a large enough ground presence to bear witness to the enforcement of the six-point plan in every part of Syria.”
– Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, today in Washington, talking with reporters

The ceasefire in Syria is holding as of this moment. A few skirmishes, a few deaths, nothing unexpected. No tank fire, no large incidents. UN-AL Special Envoy Annan reported to the United Nations Security Council that he was “encouraged”… although concerned about the fragility of the truce. As the world goes, a pretty good start to a ceasefire after heavy loss of life.

But it is not fated to last. Agendas beckon, and they will not be denied.

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According to Israeli and U.S. mainstream media, Syria went quiet at the ceasefire deadline of 6:00 am Syrian time. There is no report of any conflict in Syria at present.

The Syrian government ceased all operations, as promised to UN-AL Special Envoy Annan.

Annan is scheduled to appear before the UN Security Council at 2pm New York time and brief the SC on the situation in Syria.

Syrian government forces have not pulled back, according to all sources.

The Syrian foreign ministry sent a letter to Annan saying that the Syrian government is “reserving the right to respond proportionately to any attacks carried out by armed terrorist groups against civilians, government forces or public and private property”.

U.S. official media says that the Russian stance is since the Syrian government has stopped firing, ‘it is now the armed opposition’s turn to do the same’.

Unfortunately, the Annan ceasefire plan requires the Syrian government to completely retire from the field of conflict. It is difficult to see how any government can do that and stay in power.

It remains to be seen which side Annan will come down on… (more…)

But first a few words about the scheduled P5+1 plus Iran meeting and the ongoing Western airwar exercise in the Persian Gulf.

Iranian official English language media just now put up Iran’s interim answer to the wargame. They quote the Iranian parliament’s chairman of their Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, as saying:

“If the parties negotiating with Iran refuse to change their policy of confrontation to one of collaboration, they will be the losing side in the long term as they have been in the short and medium terms.” The media capsulates his sentiments with the headline ‘P5+1 Will Lose With Confrontational Attitude’.

That confrontational stance could not be more perfectly expressed than with the current military exercises in the Gulf.

And once again Iran said clearly, ‘Tehran has repeatedly made it clear that it will not negotiate over any of its fundamental rights’.

So it looks like no Iranian attack on the Gulf states. But chances of anything positive happening at P5 are slim to none.

SYRIA

On October 20, 1998, Syria and Turkey signed the Adana Agreement under pressure from Iran and Egypt. (more…)

Strong caveat: reader discretion highly advised. This post carries ‘High Alert’ category status because if true, it deserves that category. Perhaps even higher. But the information is not confirmed, despite all efforts to find independently confirming sources. Everything you are about to read depends upon sources who are very often both ahead of the curve and accurate… but not always. I believe the bulk of the information is actual and factual. But please take everything with a grain of salt and perhaps even a little cynicism. However… if even mostly true, war may be closer than it seemed a few hours ago. In any event, all this says volumes about the critical importance of the P5+1 plus Iran meeting this weekend, assuming there will be a meeting instead of a war going on.

In the run up to the P5+1 plus Iran meeting scheduled for some time between April 13 and 15, the West is pulling out all the stops to show Iran the massive firepower surrounding them, according to Israeli media with Mossad and military sources.

It is clearly a bald attempt to frighten the Iranians into rolling over at the meeting. It is meant to show them that if they do not do whatever the West wants regarding their nuclear program, Iran can be hit hard, very hard, militarily. It does not guarantee the West will actually slam the hammer down on Iran, now or ever. But certainly, it is gunboat diplomacy on the most intense level short of an actual attack.

It is he largest air-oriented military exercise ever conducted around the Persian Gulf. It started yesterday, Sunday local time, and is scheduled to end April 15, during the P5+1 meeting. On center stage are U.S. supercarriers USS Enterprise and USS Abraham Lincoln, both sitting in the Gulf launching massive air wings numbering a hundred or more. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain equal that number of warplanes in the air over the Persian Gulf.

There are simulations of: opening the Strait of Hormuz in case Iran closes it… protecting Gulf states’ oil facilities… airstrikes on Iranian naval ships, large and small… screening Western warships from Iranian missiles… and probably much more that we do not know about. I’m guessing the practice strikes on the Iranian Navy is particularly grating on the Iranians.

As soon as Iran perceived the aggressiveness and scale of the exercise, the Iranian ambassador to Kuwait delivered a message to the Kuwaiti Chief of Staff that Iran would ‘attack the Gulf nations taking part in the exercise unless they withdrew at once.’ That message was forwarded to the other GCC commanders and the U.S.

There is little chance of the Gulf nations withdrawing from the exercise. The West and Saudi Arabia has them locked into the exercise absolutely. Bahrain, headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, is also the headquarters for this exercise. Saudi Arabia would not withdraw under any circumstances, their hatred for Iran is so strong.

As of this writing, Iran has not come through on the promised attack.

That does not mean they will not do it.

But I personally think… maybe ‘hope’ is a better word… that they will calm down and realize it is a show for their benefit, trying to break them down before the P5 meeting, and demure.

If not, World War III is at the front door.

Syria news…

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There has been a tremendous volume of news and analysis in the past 48 hours regarding the crises in the Middle East. We are coming up to crunch time on the Iranian nuclear program and the Syrian situation.

But much is froth and foam, speculation and misinformation and absolute lies.

The truth is, it will be impossible to tell what is happening until it happens.

The P5+1 plus Iran meeting seems firmer now. (more…)

Saturday night, local time, there was an Israeli air strike into Gaza. It was a small incident, not followed up by any other action, and would be insignificant if it were not for the Grad missile strike on Eilat a couple of days ago. Why it is significant will need some rambling down a round-about path, but I promise to tie it all together by the end of the post.

Israel has limited options for retaliation into the Sinai, from whence the Grad was launched. The wrong move could sink the fragile peace treaty between Israel and Egypt.

Egypt is aware of the fragility. Earlier Saturday, before the Gaza strike, the Egyptian government told Israel that they were going to do something about the situation in Sinai. Israeli mainstream media reported there would be an Egyptian ‘operation to gain control of Sinai’, or alternately, a ‘crackdown on north Sinai terror groups’.

That is easier said than done.

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A single Grad missile crashed into Eilat in the wee hours of Thursday morning, local time. Or maybe it was two. Or three. The good people of Eilat reported ‘explosions in the city’, according to mainstream Israeli media. Note ‘explosions’, plural. Israeli media with Mossad connections think it was three. No casualties beyond shock reported. No destruction reported, although that seems a little unlikely.

All accounts have the Grads being fired from the Sinai… which is in Egypt according to the Israel-Egypt treaty that ended the last major war between the Arabs and Israel, and has been the linchpin of peace ever since. Although since the Arab Spring, a great portion of the people of Egypt have been calling for the abrogation of that treaty.

The last time Eilat came under Grad attack was August, 2010. But that sentence is very misleading. The situation is much deeper. Here are the pertinent posts from two summers ago, Lawrence of Arabia, and Aqaba.

It’s probably not possible to get a good understanding of today’s missile attack without the information contained in those two posts, and there is so much information in them, it would be too bulky to repeat it here. The first one has the added perk of being unusually odd and perhaps especially interesting.

Those August missiles were not necessarily fired at Eilat. They carried a very specific set of messages. That set of messages, concerning Jordan and Egypt, may have been re-sent with today’s missiles…. along with an additional, updated message. I had been waiting to see if there were more missiles before posting. There seems to have been none. Which gives the message factor more gravitas.

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