Exercise Eager Lion was held June 11-30, 2011 in Jordan. whose northern border is almost entirely shared by Syria. It was a ‘bilateral strategic cooperation exercise’ between the U.S. and Jordan only. The agenda was irregular warfare, special operations and counterinsurgency.

Exercise Eager Lion 2012 is about to begin, according to the United States Central Command. This time, however, they say it will involve ‘more than 19 countries from five different continents and more than 12,000 participants’. Other sources say that besides the U.S. and Jordan, “Arab and friendly states” make up the roster. Still other sources connected with Mossad name Saudi Arabia and Qatar as two of the countries, some of the others being the usual list of Britain, Canada and France (looks like the French election did not change everything overnight).

Official U.S. media says, “The focus of Eager Lion is to strengthen military-to-military relationships of participating partner nations through a joint, whole-of-government, multinational approach, integrating all instruments of national power to meet current and future complex national security challenges”.

They also say this year’s ’scenarios’ have been in the works for years… some sources say three years. So, clearly and absolutely, they sure don’t have anything to do with the situation in Syria. Nope. Not at all. In fact, Russian media quote the Saudi Defense Ministry as ‘insisting’ that Eager Lion is ‘in no way linked to the situation in Syria and Iran, despite the media claims to the reverse’.

It is sheer serendipity that the exercise is set to start May 15, the second day of the crucial IAEA-Iran meeting, according to Israeli media with Mossad connections. Interestingly, the first Eager Lion was held in June, shortly after the March onset of the Syrian crisis.

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The various faces of the Israeli government had been hemming and hawing for months about presenting a believable threat of a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities. Feet were placed in mouths, taken out, put back in. The threat was semi-credible, but not very solid.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political masterstroke of conjuring up a national unity government has solidified the threat and made it palpable.

The first action of the new government was to meet with European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, who is responsible for negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program vs. U.S./EU/UN sanctions in advance of the May 23 P5 meeting.

Aston few to Jerusalem today to meet with Netanyahu and his new Vice Premier Mofaz (Chairman of Israel’s Kadima party), his Defense Minister Barak, and his Foreign Minister Liberman, according to Israeli mainstream media. It was not reported whether Netanyahu or Ashton asked for the meeting, but it seems likely the UN official came at Netanyahu’s request.

Netanyahu and his posse had a distinct message for Ashton, one that was clearly meant to be transmitted to all those in the West who are trying to cobble together a deal with Iran.

They told her in no uncertain terms that in order for an agreement to be acceptable to Israel, Iran must:

1. Absolutely halt all uranium enrichment whatsoever.
2. Remove all enriched uranium from Iran.
3. Dismantle the underground nuclear facility of Fordo near Qom.

Iran has already said distinctly, many times, that they will do none of the above. (more…)

In the wee hours of Tuesday morning, Israel time, a surprising, dramatic, and quite fascinating event occurred.

Prime Minister Netanyahu formed a national unity government.

That means early elections, scheduled for September 4, will not happen. The dissolution of the Knesset (parliament) will not happen.

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First, note that the Arab League meeting was held today, Thursday, March 29, despite it being scheduled for Friday. I suppose that was a security thing… starting it before the announced date, to throw off any attacks against the meeting.

It may have helped. But not entirely.

Apparently there were at least two explosions, perhaps more, just after midday in Bagdad, Iraq, near and/or in the Green Zone where the summit meeting had just opened. Perhaps one, or more, were proximal to the Iranian embassy, which is outside the Green Zone. Perhaps one or more mortar shells were fired at the embassy. There were no reports of casualties or damage.

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Wednesday night in the Middle East, a Chinese assembly line started up in Syria. But it had nothing to do with making things. The purpose was to process ALL the Chinese nationals in Syria out of the country on hastily chartered aircraft as quickly as possible… save 100 brave and hearty souls who will be left behind to guard primarily oil equipment, possibly Chinese special forces. The Chinese had US$17 billion in oil and gas projects damaged when they left Libya too late and their equipment too unguarded, as the war/civil war there got suddenly too hot.

The question: is this exodus for fear of an escalated civil war in Syria? Or the real thing: full blown war between Syria and… whom? If so, which side will start it?

Smart money is betting on the war option, not just a civil war. Unless there has been a substantial influx of foreign arms or foreign troops, Syrian President Assad’s opposition is probably in no position to escalate their conflict with the government to such an extent as to make the Chinese flee for their lives.

So… is the U.S. et. al. about to invade Syria for ‘humanitarian’ reasons? Or is Israel et. al. about to make their preemptive strike on Iran, which would surely involve Syria?

Or has Syria and Iran been following the Obama-Netanyahu exchanges and decided to preempt the preemption?

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What happened to the report of North Korea testing a nuke for Iran? There are at least 2,300 news articles about it in the internet right now. It was never mentioned in the ’summit’ talks between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, so far as we know, nor in any of the AIPAC speeches. Why not? If there is a shred of truth in it, that would mean time has indeed run out for Israel to make a decision whether or not to strike Iranian nuclear sites. And if it does have a shred of truth in it, that would be far more than was needed to start the Iraq no-WMD war.

There may be some people saying it is not true, but I don’t see that happening. The bulk of the commentary community says it is a reasonable claim. So why are the leaders of both the U.S. and Israel ignoring it? Is that because talking about it would be a dead giveaway that a military strike is about to happen? Can you think of another reason?

Why did Netanyahu ask Obama to pardon convicted and admitted Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard, sentenced to life in 1987 for giving U.S. military secrets to Israel?

While it is true that Netanyahu promised the Israeli electorate he would get Pollard pardoned during his time in office, doesn’t the Prime Minister of Israel have bigger fish to fry right now? Wasn’t asking for the pardon inappropriate while the PM was trying to get the U.S. to back Israel for a military strike against Iran?

Ah… but Pollard is a high-ranking poster boy for the concept that Israel must survive at any cost. He never showed any remorse for helping Israel obtain military secrets from the U.S. He justified it as necessary in order for the state of Israel to exist. Many people in Israel see him as a hero, and see Netanyahu a sort of hero for pushing the U.S. to release him. So asking Obama to give Pollard a pardon was a message… Israel stands behind people who will act for Israel regardless of the costs, who are not afraid to act ‘by themselves’. He meant that message for Obama. He has already taken that message to heart for himself.

Now into even more disturbing things, on an even more serious level.

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Iranian capture of an advanced RQ-170 Sentinel stealth aircraft after it ‘briefly’ violated Iranian airspace from the east… probably from Afghanistan… is being extremely widely and quickly reported in all world press.

No confirmation from the U.S. on this significant event. Official U.S. media is quoting Iranian media as their source. Which is a little fatuous. We certainly know if it was shot down or not.

Iran has claimed to have captured two U.S. drones in the past. But from what little information is available about those events, they were not nearly as sophisticated as the Sentinel.

According to the Iranians, they in some way engaged the Sentinel through ‘electronic warfare’. They also say their army ’shot down’ the UAV. And that they now have it in their possession with ‘minimum damage’.

Putting all that together, it seems likely that they hacked into the UAV’s electronics, took control of it, and landed it… possibly in an area not perfect for landing, or they were just unpracticed at landing it… but in any event, it was minimally damaged upon landing.

If it had been under complete U.S. control at the time of the ‘engagement’, one would imagine it would have self-destructed, just like the Israeli spy device in Lebanon did yesterday.

If they had actually shot it down using missiles or artillery, one would think that it would have a great deal more than minimum damage.

If the Iranians did hack into the extremely sophisticated UAV, that infers they have had the capability to do so for some time. Lebanese Hezbollah, an Iranian ally, has revealed information they hacked from Israeli drones years ago. But only reluctantly, in response to what they thought was terribly inaccurate information promulgated by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.

To blatantly showcase their ability to affect the United States’ top-of-the-line UAV’s reveals much about Iran’s electronic war capabilities… capabilities that should optimally be kept secret until a war starts. Or is about to begin.

The fact that they have done so now… if indeed it is true about the capture, which it very much seems to be… is extremely important. But not as important as the words they used when they announced their trophy.

According to official Iranian English language media, quoting ‘a senior Iranian military official’, “due to the clear border violation, the operational and electronic measures taken by the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Armed Forces against invading aircraft will not remain limited to the Iran’s borders.”

Combined with yesterdays pronouncement (see previous post) that they ‘will not hesitate in closing the Strait of Hormuz’ if Iran’s ‘national interests are jeopardized’, we have to wonder with great concern what Iran’s next move will be.

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Israel is in a tough spot.

Israeli Defense Minister Barak made fun of the Iranian claim of being able to cause a million Israeli deaths with 3 or 4 missiles.

Then an Iranian missile exploded in Iran, and 20 square miles around the blast were ‘laid waste, as though ravaged by a nuclear blast – except for the absence of radioactivity’, according to Israeli sources with Mossad connections.

Tel Aviv has a population density of around 20,000 people per square mile. I did the math. If that missile warhead had exploded in Tel Aviv, and if that warhead was as powerful as the sources say, it could have killed up to 400,000 Israelis… nearly the total population of Tel Aviv. So 3 or 4 of these warheads in the most populated cities of Israel could conceivably reach the million deaths mark.

Using an apparently conventional weapon. As the Iranians have been saying all along.

Is such destruction possible with a non-nuclear weapon? (more…)

Any time from now until next Friday is looking pretty good, but Tuesday is crunch day in the Middle East.

That is when Gilad Shalit release day is scheduled. Israeli media has pictures of Gilad, pictures of the Shalit family, pictures of Israeli flags… sometimes pictures of all three together… plastered at the top of everything. Hope, joy and tears. Israeli expectations have been juiced to the max in expectation of the end of five years of waiting for the return of their captured young sergeant.

His father is wiser. He keeps saying, ‘let’s wait and see if it really happens, then celebrate.’

But emotions are running wild, running rampant throughout Israel, and if the prisoner exchange with the Palestinians, at a ratio of 1,000 to 1, does not go through… one can only imagine the guttural roar that will rise from the shattered crowd.

Hamas keeps adding last minute conditions. More women are required to be released. Palestinian terrorists released to Egypt may stay there indefinitely without being deported. It is definitely not a done deal yet.

There are uncountable numbers of reasons for almost everyone in the entire Middle East to not want the exchange to go through. If successful, it will alter the balance of power in the Middle East. One man. But the diplomacy of entire nations hinge on the machinery of his exchange for a thousand Palestinians, including hardcore terrorists. There are many who have something to gain… but even they have the uncertainty of an altered mosaic in the political pattern, and uncertainty always brings danger along with opportunity.

Israeli sources with Mossad connections keep reporting that Iran and Syria are really angry about Hamas’ headquarters being transferred from Syria to Egypt as part of the deal. They may be too close to the action to wonder if that transfer is really a tightening of the relationship between Syria and the Muslim Brotherhood. Either way, it’s just one reason why some may want to sink the exchange before… or while… it’s happening.

To detail all the reasons would take more time than there is. So I’ll cut to the chase.

The U.S. will initiate a military exercise of the most profound importance on Monday in the Middle East.

(and please remember that Monday local time in the Middle East is Sunday night in the U.S.)

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This is the story of the hour: Hamas is not behind the missile blitz into Israel. The Popular Resistance Committees in Gaza are not behind them, either

Jihad Islami, controlled by Iran and Hezbollah, is responsible.

Jihad Islami, Iran and Hezbollah are also responsible for the Thursday terror attacks. Hamas is innocent of them, as they said at the time.

Never mind that Hamas specifically took responsibility for some of the later missile attacks. Those are Iran’s doing, as well. Which, unlikely as it may appear, is possible, since Iran contributes both funds and military ordinance to Hamas, and there is a direct tie between Hamas and Hezbollah command and control.

(ed note: English spelling of Hezbollah is a vexed question. It can appear as Hezbollah, Hizbollah, Hizbolla, Hezballa… you get the idea, and you can take your pick.)

Is is not clear how nor where this story originated. But it is repeated, without substantiation, by Israeli sources both clandestine and open, including op ed pieces in Israeli mainstream media. With little doubt it is now the story most believed in Israel.

Is it true?

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