Austere Challenge 12 (see previous post U.S. Troops Deploy in Israel) cancelled over U.S. and Israeli difference about Iran sanctions, Iran preemptive strike, Iran war… according to Israeli sources with military connections.

The cancellation by the Obama administration was sudden and was said to have been done specifically to disassociate America from any strike on Iran that Israel may be - apparently is - planning. The White House is saying that Israel is on its own in that venture. If they choose to pursue war with Iran, we will not help, and ‘Israel alone would be accountable’ for their actions.

Of course that is not real world thinking. Iran will retaliate against U.S. forces in the Middle East (and they have been inferring also in America itself) if the Israelis mount an attack, no matter how ‘disassociated’ President Obama wants to be. We’re too tightly tied to Israel in the minds of the Iranians. Even if we were not tied to Israel, there would be Iranian retaliation against America. We have been against Iran for too long… perhaps in the name of Israel, perhaps for our own benefit. Whatever. The U.S. association with Israel cannot be disassociated in a moment, not in a year, not in several years.

Besides that, it is really difficult to convince anyone that the U.S itself is not preparing to strike Iran… perhaps by ourselves, perhaps in association with Israel… whatever we say publicly.

There has been no mention of what will happen with the 9,000 American service personnel who have already been deployed in Israel for Austere Challenge and beyond. There has been no retraction of the announcement that Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff will be in Israel on Thursday to meet with his Israeli counterpart.

The Israeli sources mentioned above continue to say the USS John Stennis Battle Group is still south of the Strait of Hormuz along with the USS Carl Vinson Battle Group. Just now they also mentioned the USS Abraham Lincoln Battle Group for the first time recently. They now agree with U.S. military sources that Abraham Lincoln is also on its way to join Vinson. No definitive word as to when Lincoln will arrive. If all of this is true, there will soon be three supercarriers and their associated Battle Groups on station against Iran, plus all the other U.S. assets already positioned throughout the Middle East.

Israeli sources say a reason, or perhaps the main reason, President Obama wants to disassociate from Israel is so we can control the upcoming war without having to worry if Israel will go too far in prosecuting it. Fuzzy thinking at best. Once the feathers start flying it will be more than difficult to stuff them back into the bag. In for a penny, in for a pound. And other cliches that mean if shots are fired in anger, the chances of a Middle East regional war is almost certain, and the chances of it spiraling out of control into a World War is very high.

Preparation for war does not guarantee war. Consider the old Cold War and its hallmark acronym, MAD. Mutually Assured Destruction. Sometimes adversary nations find a balance of threats that can endure for decades.

But I’m not sure the concept of balanced threats is operable in the present circumstances.

So let’s take a look at the information that is publicly available about the military steps the United States is doing in preparation for war against Iran. Misinformation is patently mixed in with a big spoon, so the following is just a ‘best guess’ of what might be true out of what is being said. Feel free to take it with a large grain of salt. War is subterfuge, diplomacy is lies, and truth is a stranger in this realm.

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Alerted by a commenter on this blog (see comments for Whirlwinds of War) we have information directly from the U.S. Navy public record and an allied source. Apparently two more U.S. aircraft carrier battle groups are currently en route to join USS Stennis in the U.S. Fifth fleet area of responsibility(AOS). Reason given: ‘to support coalition efforts’.

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UPDATE 01.12.12 12:52 GMT – Israeli sources with military connections say USS Stennis has been replaced by USS Carl Vinson, older than Stennis by 15 years. Same source adds that USS Battan Amphibious Group is being replaced by USS Makin Island.

Vinson is said to be on station now, Stennis slinking back to home port without challenging the Iranian edict. This may or may not be true. No mention of USS Abraham Lincoln.

We are left wondering if there is one, two, or three U.S. carrier groups south of the Strait of Hormuz. My guess is that the uncertainty is on purpose, for the benefit of the Iranians.
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That seems to be the Western plan. See if you agree, given the following….

Yesterday, January 6, the British Admiralty suddenly announced that their superdestroyer HMS Daring - highly hyped as the most advanced warship the world has ever produced - will leave its home berth at Her Majesty’s Naval Base Portsmouth, on Wednesday, January 11. The official proclamation says the warship will proceed to the Middle East through the Suez Canal, then transit through the Strait of Hormuz and ‘enter the Persian Gulf in late January’. The Admiralty says this trip has been planned for ever so long a time and has nothing to do with Iran. Bollocks.

The ship’s speed is rated at 29-plus knots per hour. But like most military ratings, that is a minimum maximum. In speed trials, it achieved 29 knots in 70 seconds. It’s a bloody speed boat. And it is as long as one and a half football fields. It weighs 8,800 tons, 44 tons of which is paint. It is nicely carpeted throughout, with appropriately appointed accommodations for both the men and the women who have taken the Queen’s shilling. It has 54 toilets, 44 showers, and one bath. Sailors of both genders can recharge their iPods at dedicated stations in their dining rooms. It is just a touch posh for a warship. But after all, it cost over a billion English pounds sterling (about 1.5 billion US dollars).

Back to travel times. It is 3,398 miles from London to Abu Dhabi in the UAE. At 29 knots (33-1/3 miles per hour), it would take less than five days. That means the HMS Hubris… sorry, HMS Daring… could easily be at the Strait of Hormuz as early as the 16th, if all goes perfectly. Add possible transit delays at the Suez Canal, and leaving room for breakdowns along the way, and one can see why the Admiralty is estimating ‘late January’ as the projected time of arrival at the Strait of Hormuz.

Why would there be a chance of breakdown along the way? Didn’t I mention it yet?… this is the first combat cruise of HMS Daring.

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Look out kid, they keep it all hid…
– Bobby Dylan,
somewhere on Highway 61

There is much more going on than meets the eye.

In 2009, the United States and Israel held their biggest joint exercise ever. It was called Juniper Cobra. It was called an air defense exercise. It tested the Israeli’s Arrow-2 anti-missile system and our Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THADD) missile defense system. 17 warships of the American Navy participated, as did elements of the U.S. Air Force. About 1,000 U.S. military and systems experts participated. If memory serves, only 500 were U.S. ground troops, mostly special forces. I have to rely on memory for that last figure because only a few meager references to 2009’s Juniper Cobra remain for public viewing.

Today, the first word about Austere Challenge 12 came to global consciousness. It is the United States and Israel’s biggest joint exercise ever. It will be an air defense exercise. It will test Israel’s Arrow system and our THADD system. But this time the U.S. Navy will ante up a frontline aircraft carrier (which carrier it will be has not been announced) and at least 9,000 military personnel, according to news today from Israeli sources with Mossad and military connections. Same sources say the first elements of the 9,000 have already been flown into Israel, and are bivouacking as this post is being written.

The Obama administration swears that the exercise has nothing to do with Iran, that it was planned long ago, and is part of the normal series of U.S.-Israeli readiness drills that are held at least once a year.

This is both true… and patently untrue.

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11:17:11 GMT Thursday

As of this moment, the armed forces of the United States, Iran, and the Arab League (spearheaded by Saudi Arabia) are on highest war alert, according to Israeli sources with strong military connections. There is every indication that Syria and Turkey are also on highest alert. Israel’s alert status is not available… they are being unusually quiet amidst all the turmoil … but it would be utterly surprising if they too did not have their forces in an advanced state of readiness.

There have been high war alerts in the Middle East in preceding months, but this seems to be more widespread and possibly precedes the real thing.

It had seemed that President Obama, like Falstaff in Henry IV, had chosen discretion as the better part of valor. Words like ‘calming things down’ issued from White House, as well as the continued fiction that USS Stennis is simply following pre-planned operational orders by moving away from the Persian Gulf.

Iran, flush with a signal victory in the game of verbal brinkmanship the U.S. and Iran have been playing, did not pocket their winnings and go home. The official Iranian media outlet quoted Nader Qazipour, member of the Majlis (Iranian parliament), as saying on Tuesday, local time, that Iran’s legislative body was ‘working on a relevant plan’ for ‘defending the Islamic Republic of Iran’s territory’.

According to a mix of Israeli and Iranian sources, on Wednesday night Iran local time the Majlis began actually drafting legislation that prohibits any non-Iranian warship from transiting the Strait of Hormuz without prior permission from the Iranian Navy. Iranian official sources quote Qazipour as saying the legislation will be presented to the Majlis’ Presiding Board ‘next week’.

This gamechanging threat has caused the House of Saud, which despises Iran, to become head cheerleader for the U.S. to send Stennis, or some other aircraft carrier, or, well, pretty much anything big and naval… through the Strait of Hormuz at the first possible opportunity.

They are not alone. The world is waiting to see if the U.S. calls Iran’s raise in table stakes… or folds. Refusal to respond to Iran’s big bet will not be seen as simply acting responsibly. It will paint the U.S. as a paper tiger, running away from “the power and self-confidence of the Islamic Republic Armed Forces,” as Iranian Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Larijani put it.

Still, it might be a totally sensible thing to do… if one does not consider Israel.

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Quoting verbatim from this morning’s Iranian official English language media… because small errors in translation on this one can mean big mistakes… ‘Commander of Iran’s Army Major General Ataollah Salehi has warned a US aircraft carrier not to return to the Persian Gulf, adding that the warning comes “only once.”’

Then, a paragraph later, the warning is repeated: “General Salehi said on Tuesday that we recommend and warn the aircraft carrier not to return to its previous position in the Persian Gulf, “since we are not in the habit of repeating a warning and we warn only once.”

Okay, I suppose that counts as one warning. No doubt it was iterated in an attempt to be clear.

Or is it meant to be unclear? The U.S. aircraft carrier is not named in the official Iranian warning from Salehi (although Iranian media do name it… USS John C. Stennis. Really, that’s the only choice I know of. It’s the only choice any of the media know of. But… it is odd and interesting that USS Stennis is not specifically named.)

Iran’s Chairman of their Joint Chiefs of Staff, Major General Hassan Firouzabadi, spoke later in the day on Tuesday, reported in official Iranian English language media as telling ‘naval units on parade’ that ‘any party that threatens the Iranian nation “will have to pay a heavy price.”

The Obama administration responded within hours of the initial threat.

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Iranian official English language media is indicating that Iran has thrown the ball back to the United States regarding Iran’s closing of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranians now say they will wait until the sanctions President Obama signed into law 2 days ago ‘materialize’, or in other words, are actually put into effect before they will take action to close the Strait. If the schedule of the legislation is followed, the first phase of implementation can take 30 days, and it could be up to 60 days until full implementation occurs.

The legislation gives Obama wiggle room, saying he does not have to do anything that will disastrously affect oil prices or U.S. security. So he has the option of watering down the sanctions. In order to assuage the Iranians, the applied sanctions would have to be diluted to the point of making them of little or no effect.

Iran is doing all they can to give Obama an out. They are reiterating over and over that a strong application of the legislated sanctions will cause them to close the Strait, which “would have serious consequences for the global economy as it would greatly reduce supplies of crude oil, petroleum and liquefied natural gas”.

However, if our President minimizes the new sanctions, the Israelis may take it as a final admission by the Obama administration that sanctions have gone to their limit in pressuring Iran to abandon their nuclear program. That would leave it to Israel to make a preemptive strike. If they have the chutzpah for it.

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Wow, that was quick!

Vacationing in an 8 million dollar estate on the island of Oahu in Hawaii, President Barak Obama suddenly, about an hour ago, signed defense legislation which contains provisions designed to stop other nations from buying oil from Iran. These are the sanctions Iran has promised would result in the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

The timing of the signing was ominous. Obama had said he would probably sign the bill, but not until next month.

What made him change his mind and interrupt his vacation with such a heavy decision?

It would appear that the Israeli sources mentioned in the previous post have it right: Iran must have, through trickery, closed the Strait for five hours Saturday morning, local time… despite the fact that one can find only a single mention of the event, and only if you already know to look for it.

As posited in the previous post, one possible reaction from the White House… if the bogus closing of the Strait did indeed take place… would be for President Obama to immediately sign the legislation that includes draconian sanctions against Iranian oil.

That occurred. To think that the immediate signing of the bill was not tied to the closing of the Strait assumes a level of coincidence too great to be even considered.

Now the ball is in Iran’s court.

Will they stand and deliver, as promised? Or back down. They have given no sign that they will not follow through with closing the Strait. Iranian official media has articles currently running that reiterate that promise. They would have to cower down to an extreme degree in order to break their pledge. After their ego-boosting downing of the U.S. stealth drone, and getting their blood up with the huge Velayat naval drill… which is still going on, and includes Iranian warships active in the Strait… it is difficult to imagine that they will back down.

Almost certainly, given the current state of affairs, the next time Iran closes the Strait… if they do close the Strait… it will be through military means, not light trickery.

When talking with my best friend just before writing this, going over the news together as we often do, I asked what they thought the bottom line was. They said, “Oh, clearly, it’s on.”

I think that entirely likely. And if so, the beginning of war may be not weeks away, or days away, but much sooner, since the escalation of the signing occurred so quickly.

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This seems more like April Fool’s Day than New Year’s Eve Day.

Israeli sources with Mossad connections, some of the finest reporters on the planet with guts to match, say that Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz Saturday. No one else in the world is reporting such a thing at this point in time, so far as I can see.

At roughly 4AM local time Saturday morning, Iran announced they were going to test-fire a number of different types of missiles. That was widely pre-reported in global mainstream media. The sources mentioned above say… and they are the only ones saying it… that Iran closed its territorial waters for the test. Iran’s territorial waters include the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran’s reckoning.

No ship, merchant or military… except the warships of the Iranian Navy… moved through the Strait for 5 hours, according to the sources.

If true, Iran de facto closed the Strait of Hormuz. Through trickery, perhaps, but isn’t that what war is all about?

Around 9 AM local time, the Iranians said, um, changed our minds, no missile test today. We’ll do that sometime soon, ain’t tellin’ when. That announcement is now being widely reported with a reasonably absolute degree of reliability. Or uncertainty. You choose.

If the Strait was indeed closed… why is it not being widely reported?

Because if true, it throws serious egg all over the face of the United States. We pronounced in thundering tones that we would not allow the Strait to be closed. The Iranians said they could do it, ‘easy as drinking a glass of water’. If true, they were right and we were not.

And now?

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