Drumbeats of War - U.S. and Israel Fall out… Apparently
Sunday, January 15th, 2012Austere Challenge 12 (see previous post U.S. Troops Deploy in Israel) cancelled over U.S. and Israeli difference about Iran sanctions, Iran preemptive strike, Iran war… according to Israeli sources with military connections.
The cancellation by the Obama administration was sudden and was said to have been done specifically to disassociate America from any strike on Iran that Israel may be - apparently is - planning. The White House is saying that Israel is on its own in that venture. If they choose to pursue war with Iran, we will not help, and ‘Israel alone would be accountable’ for their actions.
Of course that is not real world thinking. Iran will retaliate against U.S. forces in the Middle East (and they have been inferring also in America itself) if the Israelis mount an attack, no matter how ‘disassociated’ President Obama wants to be. We’re too tightly tied to Israel in the minds of the Iranians. Even if we were not tied to Israel, there would be Iranian retaliation against America. We have been against Iran for too long… perhaps in the name of Israel, perhaps for our own benefit. Whatever. The U.S. association with Israel cannot be disassociated in a moment, not in a year, not in several years.
Besides that, it is really difficult to convince anyone that the U.S itself is not preparing to strike Iran… perhaps by ourselves, perhaps in association with Israel… whatever we say publicly.
There has been no mention of what will happen with the 9,000 American service personnel who have already been deployed in Israel for Austere Challenge and beyond. There has been no retraction of the announcement that Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff will be in Israel on Thursday to meet with his Israeli counterpart.
The Israeli sources mentioned above continue to say the USS John Stennis Battle Group is still south of the Strait of Hormuz along with the USS Carl Vinson Battle Group. Just now they also mentioned the USS Abraham Lincoln Battle Group for the first time recently. They now agree with U.S. military sources that Abraham Lincoln is also on its way to join Vinson. No definitive word as to when Lincoln will arrive. If all of this is true, there will soon be three supercarriers and their associated Battle Groups on station against Iran, plus all the other U.S. assets already positioned throughout the Middle East.
Israeli sources say a reason, or perhaps the main reason, President Obama wants to disassociate from Israel is so we can control the upcoming war without having to worry if Israel will go too far in prosecuting it. Fuzzy thinking at best. Once the feathers start flying it will be more than difficult to stuff them back into the bag. In for a penny, in for a pound. And other cliches that mean if shots are fired in anger, the chances of a Middle East regional war is almost certain, and the chances of it spiraling out of control into a World War is very high.