That’s the surprising news of the day. Every private and mainstream Israeli media indicate that Israel will go along with the deal President Obama and the West have been negotiating privately with Iran, and that deal is promised to be trotted out into the light of day May 23 in Bagdad at the P5 meeting.

Although the leaked details are still subject to whatever happens between now and Wednesday, here is a sketch of the basics:
(more…)

Israeli media with Mossad connections are detailing what they say are the inner secrets of the U.S.-Iran deal on the Iranian nuclear program. They warn us that Iran has not signed off on it yet, so the final deal may be somewhat different. But if Iran does accept it as is, the deal will ‘endanger’ Israel.

They also say that the way the deal is structured, it would be very difficult for Israel to make a unilateral strike on Iran after it is finalized… if it is actually finalized… on May 23.

So. Reading between the lines, they seem to be saying that the window for an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities is only between now… and May 22. Which is this Tuesday.

I can’t say if any of this is true or not, especially the conclusion that is between the lines. No one outside of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s closest inner circle knows if he is actually thinking this way.

It is just barely enough of a possibility that I must bring it up; because of the potential gravity of the situation, it requires High Alert status… although most likely it is yet another false alarm.

But you know… the Stock Market has been sliding downward in a very scary way lately, which I’ve always thought would be a prerequisite for war. Stock futures, as of this moment, are down yet another 78 points.

A word to the wise is sufficient.

Much happening suddenly in and around Syria since the large deadly explosions of yesterday morning in Damascus.

First, Israeli media with Mossad connections say the target of the blasts was an important Syrian government ’security headquarters’. Even if true, the high body count of civilians in the urban neighborhood of Damascus is still the most significant factor of yesterday’s event.

Either way, the cataclysm has catalyzed the Assad government. Same sources say Syria sent out a call to their Hezbollah associates in Lebanon, who have been armed by Iran through Syrian intermediaries for years. Since that request went out, heavy weapons have been flowing upstream back to Syria. No word of direct arming of Syria by Iran. Perhaps Iran believes they need all they have at the moment.

The only way to view the upflow from Lebanon to Syria is that Assad is arming against a possible incursion into Syria upon the imminent death of the ceasefire.

(more…)

Exercise Eager Lion was held June 11-30, 2011 in Jordan. whose northern border is almost entirely shared by Syria. It was a ‘bilateral strategic cooperation exercise’ between the U.S. and Jordan only. The agenda was irregular warfare, special operations and counterinsurgency.

Exercise Eager Lion 2012 is about to begin, according to the United States Central Command. This time, however, they say it will involve ‘more than 19 countries from five different continents and more than 12,000 participants’. Other sources say that besides the U.S. and Jordan, “Arab and friendly states” make up the roster. Still other sources connected with Mossad name Saudi Arabia and Qatar as two of the countries, some of the others being the usual list of Britain, Canada and France (looks like the French election did not change everything overnight).

Official U.S. media says, “The focus of Eager Lion is to strengthen military-to-military relationships of participating partner nations through a joint, whole-of-government, multinational approach, integrating all instruments of national power to meet current and future complex national security challenges”.

They also say this year’s ’scenarios’ have been in the works for years… some sources say three years. So, clearly and absolutely, they sure don’t have anything to do with the situation in Syria. Nope. Not at all. In fact, Russian media quote the Saudi Defense Ministry as ‘insisting’ that Eager Lion is ‘in no way linked to the situation in Syria and Iran, despite the media claims to the reverse’.

It is sheer serendipity that the exercise is set to start May 15, the second day of the crucial IAEA-Iran meeting, according to Israeli media with Mossad connections. Interestingly, the first Eager Lion was held in June, shortly after the March onset of the Syrian crisis.

(more…)

In the wee hours of Tuesday morning, Israel time, a surprising, dramatic, and quite fascinating event occurred.

Prime Minister Netanyahu formed a national unity government.

That means early elections, scheduled for September 4, will not happen. The dissolution of the Knesset (parliament) will not happen.

(more…)

This post is in the high alert category because of the potential for sudden war today.

It probably will not happen… but it might be wise to be prepared and keep vigilant.

(more…)

Strong caveat: reader discretion highly advised. This post carries ‘High Alert’ category status because if true, it deserves that category. Perhaps even higher. But the information is not confirmed, despite all efforts to find independently confirming sources. Everything you are about to read depends upon sources who are very often both ahead of the curve and accurate… but not always. I believe the bulk of the information is actual and factual. But please take everything with a grain of salt and perhaps even a little cynicism. However… if even mostly true, war may be closer than it seemed a few hours ago. In any event, all this says volumes about the critical importance of the P5+1 plus Iran meeting this weekend, assuming there will be a meeting instead of a war going on.

In the run up to the P5+1 plus Iran meeting scheduled for some time between April 13 and 15, the West is pulling out all the stops to show Iran the massive firepower surrounding them, according to Israeli media with Mossad and military sources.

It is clearly a bald attempt to frighten the Iranians into rolling over at the meeting. It is meant to show them that if they do not do whatever the West wants regarding their nuclear program, Iran can be hit hard, very hard, militarily. It does not guarantee the West will actually slam the hammer down on Iran, now or ever. But certainly, it is gunboat diplomacy on the most intense level short of an actual attack.

It is he largest air-oriented military exercise ever conducted around the Persian Gulf. It started yesterday, Sunday local time, and is scheduled to end April 15, during the P5+1 meeting. On center stage are U.S. supercarriers USS Enterprise and USS Abraham Lincoln, both sitting in the Gulf launching massive air wings numbering a hundred or more. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain equal that number of warplanes in the air over the Persian Gulf.

There are simulations of: opening the Strait of Hormuz in case Iran closes it… protecting Gulf states’ oil facilities… airstrikes on Iranian naval ships, large and small… screening Western warships from Iranian missiles… and probably much more that we do not know about. I’m guessing the practice strikes on the Iranian Navy is particularly grating on the Iranians.

As soon as Iran perceived the aggressiveness and scale of the exercise, the Iranian ambassador to Kuwait delivered a message to the Kuwaiti Chief of Staff that Iran would ‘attack the Gulf nations taking part in the exercise unless they withdrew at once.’ That message was forwarded to the other GCC commanders and the U.S.

There is little chance of the Gulf nations withdrawing from the exercise. The West and Saudi Arabia has them locked into the exercise absolutely. Bahrain, headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, is also the headquarters for this exercise. Saudi Arabia would not withdraw under any circumstances, their hatred for Iran is so strong.

As of this writing, Iran has not come through on the promised attack.

That does not mean they will not do it.

But I personally think… maybe ‘hope’ is a better word… that they will calm down and realize it is a show for their benefit, trying to break them down before the P5 meeting, and demure.

If not, World War III is at the front door.

Syria news…

(more…)

Location, Location, Location. As any good real estate agent will tell you, the value of a property depends on its location.

In the past couple of hours, Middle Eastern media started winding up the siren over the venue for the P5+1 plus Iran meeting scheduled for April 13-14. The date has been solid for a week or more; totally locked in by Saturday, when Secretary of State Clinton announced it at a joint press conference with Saudi Foreign Minister al-Faisal after the Friday Gulf Cooperation Meeting. Iran agreed that the date was firm.

The location of the meeting has never been solid. On Saturday, Madam Clinton said it would be in Istanbul, Turkey… but the reality was that Iran had not yet agreed to Istanbul or any other location.

Now the Iranians are saying they want the meeting in Bagdad, Iraq.

(more…)

First, note that the Arab League meeting was held today, Thursday, March 29, despite it being scheduled for Friday. I suppose that was a security thing… starting it before the announced date, to throw off any attacks against the meeting.

It may have helped. But not entirely.

Apparently there were at least two explosions, perhaps more, just after midday in Bagdad, Iraq, near and/or in the Green Zone where the summit meeting had just opened. Perhaps one, or more, were proximal to the Iranian embassy, which is outside the Green Zone. Perhaps one or more mortar shells were fired at the embassy. There were no reports of casualties or damage.

(more…)

Joint Special Envoy for the United Nations and the League of Arab States Kofi Annan announced on Tuesday that the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad has accepted his 6-point program for peace in Syria.

Before passing out champaign and party favors, we may want to consider a poll that started running today in Iranian English language official media:

POLL
Syria has accepted Kofi Annan’s peace plan. What do you think the initiative will entail?
1) Syrian opposition and armed groups backed by the US, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will use the initiative to make peace with the government.
2) Syrian opposition and armed groups backed by the US, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar will ultimately reject the initiative and launch a war with the government.
3) There will be rifts among them as the Syrian opposition and armed groups as well as the US and its allies will fail to agree on how to do deal with the initiative.

Perhaps a little slanted? Yes, of course. Polls always beg the question. Which is why most of us have a genetic aversion to them. Unless we are politicians, skewing the facts in an attempt to prove our viewpoint is the most popular one, the right one. Whether it really is or not. It’s like a magician trying to ‘force’ a card… skillfully enticing you to pick the one he wants you to pick.

But if you deconstruct a poll, you can see what’s really on the mind of those who created it.

The primary ‘force’ in this poll is obviously to make sure the mark… sorry, poll taker… internalizes the idea that the “Syrian opposition and armed groups (are) backed by the US, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar”. Well… actually, they are. Not much question about it, considering that 200 of them were invited to the Friends of Syria meeting starting Sunday. The primary sponsors include the US, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Although Qatar does not usually come to mind as a Middle Eastern powerhouse, they are surprisingly active in Arab League affairs, providing military assets to enforce AL edicts.

The second level of this game is the choice between peace, war, or chaos. (more…)