The March 5th meeting between President Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is being ballyhooed and promoted like a summer blockbuster movie.

The key hook is today’s White House proposal to the Israeli PM’s office that Mr. Obama and Mr. Netanyahu release a joint statement following their meeting ‘to present a single U.S.-Israeli front in order to leverage pressure on Iran’, according to Israeli mainstream media.

After that caviler move by the Obama administration, if a statement is not released after the meeting it will underline that the two countries are completely at odds with each other on the Iranian question. Especially if the Israelis accept this proposal. Great expectations are being created, and the most likely outcome is that those expectations will be cruelly dashed.

Which is perhaps the whole intent of the meeting. Deep distancing between the two countries. Obama showing Iran that it will not be America’s fault if Israel bombs them. For the umpteenth time, that will never be accepted by Iran, so why try? Good question. Either the politicos choreographing the two nations’ dance with war are not very bright, or there is something that is not obvious to us unwashed masses. Maybe I’m the one who is not very bright, because I can’t imagine what that would be, except to try and convince not very bright legislators that if there is enough distancing, Iran will not retaliate against U.S. assets in the Middle East. But who would be that gullible?

Of course, it is vaguely possible that there will be a joint statement. If so, it should be a doozy.

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At the end of the business day Tuesday in Iran, official Iranian news media for both Iranians and English speaking people confirmed that Iran had, indeed, stopped supplying crude oil to Greece.

“Not supplying crude to Greece was in fact an executive planning and arrangement made by the National Iranian Oil Company and was in line with fortifying the national interests and pride,” according to a statement to Iranian press by Majlis (parliament) member Elyas Nadderan. He is also a member of the Majlis Economic Commission.

Today’s article retained and expanded the information contained in the initial Sunday articles: ‘… a Greek tanker returned home unloaded after Iran refrained… from supplying the 500,000-barrel cargo to the Greek tanker which was due to deliver it to Hellenic Petroleum refinery’.

The Iranians acknowledge that hitting Greece could make things particularly difficult for that economically challenged nation. They also say Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have stopped sending oil to Greece over fears Greece cannot pay the bill. They iterate that Iran had been extending credit to Greece for oil purchases.

The current article also iterates that Iran has warned the EU that Iran ‘… would soon stop oil exports to these countries if they do not reverse their decision’ about sanctions against Iran.

The reason the Greek-Iranian oil issue is being heavily covered in this blog are several.

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I promise to explain the existence of the title of this post later, but first will get back into the vexed issue of the Iranian cutoff of oil to Greece mentioned in the two previous posts. It’s just that the title sets up the proper degree of cognitive dissonance required to understand what’s going on in the Greek deal.

All day Sunday, all day Monday, local time, Iranian official media said that Iran refused to load a Greek oil tanker. They never retracted the story.

Western and Israeli media at first reported the refusal, then reported that the refusal did not happen, then most pulled the disavowment of the refusal off the net. U.S. economic forums never touched the subject. Greek sources said it never happened, but the reliability of those sources approach zero.

Today, the Iranian articles have disappeared as though they never existed. Can’t even find them in their archives.

Same with Israeli articles.

Same with Western articles… except one large news agency that for some bizarre reason posted the initial refusal information only an hour ago.

But, by in large, there is complete silence on the issue from all sides now.

So what happened?

Perhaps Iran is tacking against the wind.

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Western and Israel mainstream media is carrying a report supposedly from the Iranian Student’s News Agency (ISNA) that Iran had not blocked an oil shipment to Greece.

The official and only English language ISNA website is not currently carrying any story relating to the Greek oil shipment.

There is an article saying funds from EU purchases of Iranian oil are going through, and are not being blocked.

Official English language Iranian media and official media intended for domestic Iranian consumption are still saying the shipment was blocked. The later source is now also saying that the tanker has ‘returned home unloaded’. Pretty definitive.

There is a pic of the tanker Stone Eagle associated with the story, but it is not clear if that is just a file photo having nothing to do with Sunday’s action, or if that is the ship that was refused filling. Information on an oil tanker called Stone Eagle, if there is one, does not seem to be on the net currently.

The Iranian Students’ News Agency may not be the most accurate source for this story. But, perhaps the Western and Israel media got a prerelease copy of their post, and it is still to come onto the website? That may be a little generous, though.

So at the moment, without some solid confirming source for the ISNA information, it does appear that Iran refused to fill the tanker bound for Greece.

In any event, whatever happened, even if it was an unfulfilled threat, one might expect the oil markets and stock markets to react strongly when they open for Monday trade.

In what may be Iran’s final warning shot across the bow on the issue of cutting oil to the EU, Iran “refrained from supplying the 500,000-barrel cargo to the Greek tanker which was due to deliver it to Hellenic Petroleum refinery”, according to official Iranian media.

Iranian Oil Minister Qassemi has been telling EU countries they would soon have to make a final decision on oil imports from Iran, warning them they would be sanctioned by Tehran otherwise.

Apparently… stress apparently… Greece will not be able to pick up any more oil from Iran unless they agree to the ironclad 2 to 5 year contract demanded by Iran. This could have disastrous effects on the Greek economy, since they have been getting oil from Iran on credit. That could have a tidal effect on the EU and world economy. The Greek bailout may have been torpedoed by this Iranian move.

Apparently… stress apparently… the cutoff to the rest of the EU may well follow in short order if Greece does not accede to Iranian demands.

Will anyone take this as an act of war? Or will it spur some action that will be taken as such? Things could happen quickly now.

ON another issue:

Aid corridors through Syria do not seem to be happening, and even if they do, Saudi Arabia and Israel are both very unhappy about President Obama stalling on the Syria issue, according to Israeli sources. Fireworks of one kind or another may ensue.

Although the Friends of Syria meeting Friday fizzled, Secretary of State Clinton in sideline meetings with influential Arab nations got the strong replies President Obama was hoping for (see last post). The same day, a convoy of eleven ambulances plus ‘other vehicles’ from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in association with the Syrian Red Crescent drove into the Baba Amr district of Homs, Syria, and evacuated 27 people… 7 seriously injured Syrians and 20 women and children. No journalists.

According to Israeli sources with Mossad connections, it took a threat from the U.S. and Turkey to make that convoy happen. Syrian President Assad was told through channels that the convoy was going through, come hell or high water, and if he interfered with it, U.S. and Turkish warplanes would ‘take off from air bases in East Turkey and give the medical convoys air cover’. If they had to kill a bunch of people to get injured people out of Syria, that was fine with them.

Apparently there was no reply from Assad. But there also was no attempt by the Syrian government to stop the convoy. The fact that the Syrian Red Crescent got involved with the relief effort may have helped that to happen, since it allowed Assad to save face to some extent.

But it is not clear at this time where the medical vehicles actually came from, nor if they were actually International Red Cross or Red Crescent, the Arab equivalent.

From there, the story goes really wonky.

Edith Bouvier, wounded journalist and posterchild for the effort to make Syria accept humanitarian aid, was not evacuated, nor was her less seriously injured (or perhaps uninjured) compatriot Paul Conroy.

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“There is no other means but transferring power either voluntarily or by force.”
– Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisa as he walked out of the first Friends of Syria meeting

Despite Madam Clinton’s smoozing with the prince over tea and baklava, the House of Saud’s representative was apparently disgusted with the mild resolution the conference danced around but did not even bring to a vote. It will have to wait for the next one. If there actually is a next one.

The draft resolution left mouldering on the table says the FoS are ready to supply humanitarian aid within Syria 48 hours after the government of President Assad stops its “assault on civilian areas” and permits unlimited access to UN and other aid organizations. If he doesn’t, then, by golly, there should be some kinda sanctions.

That’s it.

Originally to be attended by as many as 80 nations, the figure slipped downward to 70, and today official U.S. media put the number of attendees at 60. Mainstream Israeli press put it at 50. It looks like a number of nations that were not so heavily courted as Saudi Arabia saw the writing on the wall, that this affair would be less than productive, and simply stayed home.

During the meeting, there were strong calls for heavy action.

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Good News

The hail Mary play mentioned in the previous post… about the possibility of a revival of Russia’s July, 2011 plan to take care of the Iranian nuclear program in a peaceful way… has some substance to it.

A Russian Deputy Foreign Minister has stated that the IAEA and Iran have in fact not reached an impasse, according to Iranian English language official media. Okay, although he is ostensibly a ’senior official’, he is - no offense intended - hardly top drawer. Which puts the move into the ‘plausible deniability’ category, or even ‘pipedreams’. But let that go for now.

Gennady Gatilov’s actual words were, “I would not draw any final conclusions saying that the dialogue has failed and deadlocked during the visit” of the IAEA team to Iran. That is patently false. The team leader said they failed as soon as he got off the plane in Vienna. Done deal. Over. But the Russians pushing the fantasy that it’s not over, well, that says a great deal.

Substantiating the underlying message even more, Gatilov next pointedly mentioned that the P5+1 ‘can still continue diplomatic efforts to resume nuclear talks in order to find a negotiated solution to Iran’s nuclear issue’. Clearly the hail Mary play is in motion.

“Russia stands for a sooner resumption of the talks,” Gatilov declared. And so says Iran.

Bad News

Unfortunately there is no time nor venue set for the next P5+1 plus Iran meeting. And there is no telling if such negotiations would defang or precipitate an Israeli strike on Iran. Which is just part of a truckload of bad news on the information superhighway.

First up and most serious is Syria.

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A statement from the IAEA team getting off the airplane from Iran effectively put an end to hopes that a solution to the Iranian nuclear program could be supplied by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency.

As everyone with any sense knew before they left for Teheran.

A little surprising, however, was how fast they reported their failure. That report was promised within a few days. They essentially gave it at the airport as soon as they returned to Vienna.

More bad news: Israeli sources with Mossad connects now put the timeline to Iranian weapons grade uranium at just six weeks, if they so desire.

So… sanctions have backfired, the IAEA has reached a dead end, and Iran may have the material to make a nuke in three fortnights… and to put the icing on the cake, Iran has said that they may take action if they simply ‘feel’ endangered.

What’s left to stop Israel from making their long-awaited strike on Iranian facilities soon, very soon, which may plunge the world into a nuclear conflict?

Not much.

However, there does seem to be one desperate, last-ditch attempt in the works… currently as gossamer as threads from a silkworm… but if spun with enough skill, perhaps enough to provide a safety net for the whole world.

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I still read printed newspapers as well as online U.S. mainstream media. How else could one know what the bulk of Americans are seeing and feeling? Okay, network TV news… but I have to draw the line somewhere, and that’s where.

Today, the big page 3 article in our local newspaper… owned as most are by a conglomerate, fed stories as most are by the central news agency, so it is eminently typical… was headlined “More supply than demand” with the large subhead “Yet oil and gasoline prices are surging”.

The article blames Iran, flat out. There is also grumbling about oil speculation by the robber barons of Wall Street, but that is secondary. The top culprit, in no uncertain terms, is evil Iran, and the ‘growing fear of a military confrontation with Iran in the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz’. Even the speculation is all Iran’s fault: ‘… today’s high oil and gasoline prices is because of excessive speculation, driven by Iran fears…’.

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