Drumbeats of War - U.S. Troops Deploy in Israel
Look out kid, they keep it all hid…
– Bobby Dylan,
somewhere on Highway 61
There is much more going on than meets the eye.
In 2009, the United States and Israel held their biggest joint exercise ever. It was called Juniper Cobra. It was called an air defense exercise. It tested the Israeli’s Arrow-2 anti-missile system and our Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THADD) missile defense system. 17 warships of the American Navy participated, as did elements of the U.S. Air Force. About 1,000 U.S. military and systems experts participated. If memory serves, only 500 were U.S. ground troops, mostly special forces. I have to rely on memory for that last figure because only a few meager references to 2009’s Juniper Cobra remain for public viewing.
Today, the first word about Austere Challenge 12 came to global consciousness. It is the United States and Israel’s biggest joint exercise ever. It will be an air defense exercise. It will test Israel’s Arrow system and our THADD system. But this time the U.S. Navy will ante up a frontline aircraft carrier (which carrier it will be has not been announced) and at least 9,000 military personnel, according to news today from Israeli sources with Mossad and military connections. Same sources say the first elements of the 9,000 have already been flown into Israel, and are bivouacking as this post is being written.
The Obama administration swears that the exercise has nothing to do with Iran, that it was planned long ago, and is part of the normal series of U.S.-Israeli readiness drills that are held at least once a year.
This is both true… and patently untrue.
A joint exercise to take place in Israel this year was indeed planned. But that exercise was called Juniper Stallion 2012. Whether or not it was meant to be an exercise of such grand scope is of course not known, but it seems unlikely unless it was part of a long-standing plan to get ready for war with Iran. Which this exercise quite transparently appears to be.
Also, it is seriously doubtful that Juniper Stallion required many of the U.S. troops participating in the exercise to continue their deployment in Israel until the end of the year. Which is exactly what the Israel sources say will happen under Austere Challenge. Yes, deployment. Not a temporary visit for an exercise. The Israelis underline a telling comment by the Austere Challenge commander, U.S. Air Force General Frank Gorenc, when he visited Israel in December, saying that ‘the coming event is more a “deployment” than an “exercise”‘.
In 2009, the U.S. personnel were flown in from the U.S. European Command. Where the Austere Challenge troops are coming from is not publicly known. But thousands or tens of thousands of U.S. personnel left Iraq only to go next door to Kuwait and wait. For… what? This?
So we have a choice. Either the U.S. has been planning for a long time to deploy a humongous amount of assets and boots on the ground into Israel for months or years. Or we just now decided to turn an exercise into a deployment and shoehorn a humongous amount of assets and boots into Israel long-term. In both cases, if the reason is not Iran… what is it? Every bona fide analyst places the origin of the missiles pointed toward Israel at Iran’s doorstep. Hamas, Hezbollah, Jihad Islami… you name it, and the armorer is always said to be Iran.
Which begs the question: are the new, impending U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil the only reason that Iran has chosen this precise moment in time to threaten closure of the Strait of Hormuz?
Or did they already feel the hot breath of Juniper Stallion breathing down their necks? If it was planned to be anything like it is turning out to be, surely the Iranians could see the writing on the wall. In that case, why not play their ace in the Strait before U.S.-Israel called trumps?
Iran is definitely, unequivocatingly, repeatedly reiterating their promise to close the Strait if the new U.S. sanctions, or the proposed EU sanctions, are put into effect. They have clarified their position and set it in stone. Obama signing the sanctions turned out not to be their red line. Applying the sanctions is the red line. Any previous statement by anyone in their government that was interpreted to mean that closing the Strait was not a current option is wrong, wrong, wrong.
The threat of closing the Strait also applies to the U.S. attempting to send the aircraft carrier USS Stennis back through the Strait into the Persian Gulf. It apparently also applies to any large U.S. warship (reference previous post).
The U.S. is repeatedly reiterating that we will send capital ships of the U.S. Navy through the Strait any time we feel like it. But of course we just don’t quite feel like it right now.
Some U.S. analysts on the official U.S. news outlet are making light of the Iranian threat, literally calling it laughable. From what our Joint Chiefs of Staff have said publicly, it is no laughing matter. How long it would take to reopen the Strait - or whether Iran has the true capability of closing it - may be a subject of debate. But just an attempt by Iran to close the Strait would be an event that would have a serious impact on the global economy. Oil spiked up about 4 percent on publication of Iran’s threat. No wonder the stark reality is being downplayed as much as possible in the media.
The European Union is reportedly revisiting their proposed sanctions. They seem worried that they may have bitten off more than they can chew. EU diplomats are talking about a ‘grace period’ of up to a year before any sanctions are put into effect.
South Korea has already said they will ask for an exemption to the U.S. sanctions against Iran. Just a little while ago, word came in that Japan may also. The Iranians have latched onto a statement by ‘a Japanese Foreign Ministry official’ who is purported to have said, “We are not considering banning imports”.
And there are quiet little sounds echoing within the White House that seem to indicate that President Obama is not at all anxious to apply the new sanctions.
And on Thursday, elements of USS Stennis (what irony) rescued 13 Iranians from pirates in the Arabian Sea. The Iranians were given food and a medical checkup, and immediately released for return to Iran, making sure the U.S. and Iran would not slip into any sort of ‘hostage’ scenario.
In addition, according to the Israeli sources previously mentioned, the Russian destroyer Admiral Chabanenko and frigate Yaroslav Mudry will make landfall at Syria’s primary military port of Tartus on Saturday, apparently in support of President Assad… and by extension, Iran.
Bottom line… there are a number of factors taking pressure off a quick Iran-U.S confrontation, but Austere Challenge is pumping up the pressure exponentially.
And Iran is saying they will be holding another big Naval drill that includes the Strait of Hormuz… soon.
