Drumbeats of War - Israel Gaza Battle Resumes With A Dangerous Twist
More than twenty Hamas missiles, a combination of harassing Qassams and heavy Grads, have been launched into Israel from the Gaza Strip since Thursday. The Iron Dome semi-effective missile defense, upon which Israel has pinned its hopes, on claimed two of those missiles before they exploded. No damage or casualties reported from any of the missiles.
There have been three Israeli Air Force attacks on Gaza, one very serious that killed or wounded a disputed number of civilians, but all accounts said the strike killed a 12-year-old boy. The IDF (Israeli Defense Force) issued regrets for that strike. But they put the blame on Hamas for blurring military targets with the civilian population of Gaza.
That may no longer be as large an issue in the future.
Israeli sources with Mossad and military connections have information that Hamas is transferring much of their offensive operations out of Gaza and into the northern Sinai. They are hurriedly relocating command centers, training facilities, metal foundries for rockets, and presumably many of their missiles. The move will put those new locations out of reach of the IDF because Sinai is Egyptian territory. An IDF strike into Egypt could easily start a war between Israel and Egypt. The recentering of their forces into Sinai also allows Hamas to strengthen their ties with Bedouin militias. Which is very bad news for Israel.
Apparently some Bedouins have decided to join the terrorist attacks against Israel. The Bedouin Sawarkah tribe is now being given credit for the August 18 incident in which eight Israelis were killed on the Eliat highway. The sources mentioned above say that because suicide bombers were part of that attack, there is evidence that some Bedouins are becoming more deeply enmeshed in the radical Salafi sect of Islam. They are changing from their traditionally opportunist character to more deeply held beliefs that make them much more dangerous.
The Sawarkah control the area between Gaza and… El Arish.
El Arish is the only port along that section of Egypt’s Mediterranean coast, and hosts the oil pipeline that leads to Israel and Jordan. El Arish was of immense strategic importance when Lawrence of Arabia led Bedouin tribes to take it during World War II. And it is of perhaps even more strategic value today.
But it is not just the northern border of Sinai-Israel-Gaza that is in peril. The Israeli sources mentioned above say the six Egyptian combat battalions and tank units that Israel allowed into the Sinai when the oil pipeline began to be sabotaged and blown up on a regular basis… have vanished like a mirage as the Bedouins became suddenly more aggressive, and Hamas and Jihad Islami swept out of Gaza into the wide reaches of the desert.
There were 300 militarized points on the Egyptian side of the border a few weeks ago. Most are essentially abandoned now. Israeli sources report that at least 100 of the positions were quickly filled by Bedouins. Another hundred were given by the Egyptian military to… and I shake my head over this one… inmates from Egyptian jails. They were supplied with uniforms, but no weapons. They immediately joined the Bedouins, who armed them with sophisticated anti-air missiles. Sophisticated enough to take down IDF warplanes.
Even if there were not the likelihood of starting a big war, there will very probably be no IDF airstrikes in the Sinai, neither retaliatory nor preventive, because the chance of losing a plane or two is now substantial. In fact, the IDF has suspended military sorties along the Egyptian border. Commercial flights have been ’sharply restricted’. However there are still civilian planes taking tourists to Eilat and other southern destinations for their seaside vacation. Combined with the absence of IDF protectors in the air, the Bedouins’ anti-air missiles put those flights in harm’s way. One hopes there is not a tragic headline in the making.
In the meantime, Iran reports that Turkey has deployed their Blue Berets, apparently specially trained troops, to Turkey’s border with Syria. They join an unknown level of tank forces sent there early last week.
Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu announced today, “Turkey has no desire to interfere in anyone’s internal affairs. But if a risk to regional security arises, then we do not have the luxury of standing by and looking on.”
Last week Turkey slapped a 30% customs duty on products exported to Syria through turkey. That includes oil. The Turks also totally shut down transit of Syrian oil to Middle East destinations
Israeli sources report that Syrian President Assad has given the citizens of Homs, where rebellion against the government has been quite strong, 72 hours to cease resistance. The alternative will be a ‘massive military assault’ on Homs. That rumor has been in circulation for some time, but the Israeli source’s reliability factor gives it a little more credence. And it is not inconsistent with the Assad government’s continuing crackdown on dissidents. Still, the original source for the threat was the Syrian opposition, so it may well be taken with a grain of salt, because it provides a little too handy casus belli for the Turks massing on the Syrian border, whether it actually happens or not.
Iranian official English language media say that if the Syrian opposition takes over, they will immediately start ‘developing relations with Tel Aviv’. Propaganda or not, the statement is one more indication of just how far Iran will go to keep Assad in power.
In the realm of electronic warfare, Iranian official media claims that the U.S. drone they captured was guided to a soft landing in Iran using ’satellites and ground stations in Afghanistan and the US’. They hacked ground stations in the U.S.? Could that possibly be true? Or are they experiencing a rush of hubris and are overstating the case? They continue to crow about their ‘ultra-advanced technology’. A member of their parliament proudly told the press today that, ” if a country has the technology to remotely control the drones, it can put spy drones on any course it wants.”
Possibly missiles also. Which is a rather sobering thought. If any of this is true. And if the feat is repeatable.
In any event, it would seem that everything currently happening would cause Israel’s timetable for a preemptive strike against Iran… if such a timetable exists… to be accelerated rather than delayed.
Israeli mainstream news has nothing about the missile barrage from Gaza right now. An oversight?
Or a signpost?
