Drumbeats of War - Libya No Fly War
Marred by indecision, half-measures and second guessing before it was finally introduced in the Security Council, UN resolution 1973 is being prosecuted in much the same manner.
The hundred million dollar (plus) barrage of Tomahawk cruise missiles, along with the bombs and strafing runs of French and British warplanes and VTOL assets from the USS Kearsarge, have made an impression on the world.
But not a good one.
The Arab League is decrying the Libyan civilian casualties caused by the missiles and bombing. League Secretary-General Moussa said today, “What is happening in Libya differs from the aim of imposing a no-fly zone, and what we want is the protection of civilians and not the bombardment of more civilians.”
Did they think that exploding boatloads of high explosives in populated areas could possibly come without the price of innocent lives? Do they seriously expect anyone to believe that they thought a no fly zone could be established without something blowing up on the ground?
But now the collateral deaths are being placed squarely on the shoulders of the US, whom they accuse of ramrodding the resolution through the UN Security Council. It’s almost like they wanted to be able to point the finger at the US. Like they gave the US and the rest of the West a lot of rope, and waited for the inevitable outcome.
Russia, which abstained on resolution 1973, is split on the amount of vitriol to pour on the US and the other Western nations of the anti-Qaddafi coalition. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, whom everyone sees as the real powerman in Russia, said, “To me, it resembles some sort of medieval call to crusade when someone would appeal to someone to go to a certain place and free something there.”
President Dmitry Medvedev, who is officially in power, but in reality demurs to Putin, took the unusual and perhaps dangerous step of chastising his patron in public. After Putin’s remarks, Medvedev called him to task, saying, “Under no circumstances is it acceptable to use expressions which essentially lead to a clash of civilizations. Such as ‘crusade’ and so on.”
This is an interesting public view of what may be a significant schism between the two Russian leaders that has been brewing underground like an earthquake that hasn’t happened yet. Question is whether it will turn out to be a meaningless minor trembler, or a 9.0.
Russia has plans to double both their strategic (ballistic) and tactical missile systems, starting in 2013, which is a pretty short timeframe as those things go. It will be part of a $650 billion rearmament plan. The Russian Bear wants to get back its growl.
The US is much more comfortable with Medvedev than we are with Putin. Secretary of Defense Gates will soon meet with Medvedev in Moscow. Putin has declined meeting with Gates.
Putin is an old judoka (student of the discipline of judo). Judo uses an opponent’s strengths to defeat them.
Russia was initially against the US/French plan for establishing a no fly zone in Libya. They were okay with certain sanctions, but not military action. Suddenly, they were okay with a live fire solution… that has predictably gone sour. Did Putin purposefully hand Medvedev enough rope to run with the US, but then hang himself in front of the Russian people? If so, that means hard line trouble for US-Russian relations, perhaps sooner rather than later in client countries throughout the Middle East.
Looking inward to the US military view of Libya, it seems like the US brass feels like they’ve been handed the short end of a rope, and are wondering what the politicians really have in mind.
According to official US media, General Ham, the U.S. commander in Africa and therefore head honcho for the Libyan… well, whatever it is… told reporters Monday, “I could see accomplishing the military mission which has been assigned to me, and the current leader would remain the current leader. Is that ideal? I don’t think anyone would say that that is ideal.”
It’s not generally considered a good thing for your top commander to be unsure what the end point of a mission is. Much less apparently disagree with… whatever it is.
Iran has no such confusion. Official news media reports with the certainty born of antagonism that ‘Britain, US and France have invaded Libya to topple Muammar Qaddafi’s regime’. They also jubilantly report that NATO is ‘unable to take over Libya war.’
They point out that, Turkey, which is leading the objections, has rejected any NATO intervention in oil-rich Libya,’ and that Turkey has ‘called for an immediate Western ceasefire’. Turkey upgraded its relationship with Iran significantly in the last year, equally downgrading relations with the US and Israel.
President Obama, who is de facto leading the current coalition, decided that Qaddafi’s offer yesterday of a cease fire was another one of the Libyan president’s lies. Obama seems comfortable with the continued prosecution of the… whatever it is… with a continuing barrage of cruise missiles (10 is the general consensus) and myriad smart bombs today on Qaddafi troops, anti-aircraft assets and other targets.
Item to note: Iranian official media confirmed the obvious, that there are special forces on the ground in Libya providing intelligence and setting up targeting lasers for the smart bombs. They say the bulk of the small teams are British. This kind of team rarely gets caught, and even more rarely captured alive. However. If that were to happen, it would add a completely new dimension to this… whatever it is.
Continuing the theme of schisms, there was a totally unusual article in Iranian official media about the protests, perhaps rebellion against President Assad in Syria. They reported it with facts that jived with Western media, saying Syrian government forces had killed a number of demonstrators. (Clashes between Syrian protesters and their government continued today, according to Israel mainstream media.)
What made the article unusual was that, although factual, it could be seen as negative reporting on an internal Syrian issue. The relationship between Syria and Iran is vital to the Iranian vision of a Middle East united against the West. News that Syria is also embroiled in the democratic zeitgeist of the moment would not be considered very supportive.
And so it has quickly disappeared from official Iranian media. Can’t find it now despite looking for it.
But it happened. So it makes you wonder what it actually was… a faux pas by a junior editor, or a brief tap on the knuckles for some Syrian intransigence on a level too deep to see the light of day. No way of knowing at this point.
But there are so many cracks forming in so many alliances on all sides, we may look back on it as the start of a more serious breach between the two countries.
Iran has things going all its way in Yemen. Militants of the Houthi insurgent group in Yemen, who are Shia, are reported ‘in control of the northern province of Saada,’ which borders Saudi Arabia. Yemeni President Saleh has ordered tanks to his capitol of Sanaa to make a defense.
Saleh also sent an urgent message to Saudi Arabia Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal to mediate between the government and the Shia rebels, according to Israeli sources. They also are reporting that ‘dozens of Yemeni commanders including armored corps chief’ have defected to the opposition.
Wonder how well the Sunnis of Saudi Arabia will be able to mediate with Yemeni Shia. Unless that ‘mediation’ is martial in nature.
Iran continues to seethe that the Saudis destroyed any chance for a peaceful end to the situation in Bahrain when they invaded that small country off the coast of Saudi Arabia. Official media is running the headline ‘Saudis left no way for peace in Bahrain’, citing statements by Sheikh Ali Salman, leader of Bahrain’s opposition Al-Wefaq party.
There are reports, not currently confirmed by unbiased media, that the onslaught against the Bahraini protesters include denial of medical facilities for the wounded, with medical staff being arrested along with supposedly neutral ‘human rights activists’. Even if the reports are half true, there is a huge amount of bad blood being created by the Saudi incursion into Bahrain. The sobering question is, what if anything will Iran do about it?
Closing the circle back on Libya, recent reports have Qaddafi’s naval base in Tripoli being bombarded today at 1900 GMT. Unconfirmed but likely, the attack spread through the nation’s capitol and may have reached Qaddafi’s residence, although what damage might have occurred is unknown.
As is so much, in this… whatever it is.
