Drumbeats of War - Iran Promises Action Against Saudi Invasion of Bahrain
Mainstream media is reporting a lot about the crisis in Bahrain, and none of it is good news for the Bahraini protesters.
But the situation it is creating in the Middle East is far more serious than simply another entrenched Arab monarch performing acts of violence on his unruly people.
There is extreme anger in Iran over the Saudi invasion of this tiny kingdom. So much anger, that it may appear to be grossly out of proportion with the admittedly grim situation. But it is the ’straw that breaks the camel’s back’.
Bahrain is about three-quarters Shia, the same Islamic sect as most Iranians. Bahrain has been dominated by a Sunni kingship for two centuries. Seeing the widespread people’s revolt against tyrants in the Middle East, the Bahraini took a chance to peacefully lobby in the streets of Manama for a change toward more representative government.
That scared the living daylights out of the Sunni House of Saud. They have always been anxious about the Shia minorities in their own kingdom. Even more so about the Shia in their neighbor countries, particularly Yemen. As reported in the previous post, the Yemeni have gone so far as to take a city right on the border with Saudi Arabia.
So the Saudi government felt compelled to go against every peaceful precept of the Arab world and send special forces from the Arab League, which they control, into Bahrain to put a lid on the situation before it could incite the Shia of Saudi Arabia into rebellion. Reports put the number of troops at ‘over 1,000′. But Israeli sources with Mossad connections say the incursion is much heavier. Their military sources put the number at 3,500: a tank battalion, a Saudi army mechanized brigade, and a Saudi National guard brigade, plus a few United Arab Emirates and Kuwaiti units.
This is a lot of foreign firepower for a tiny country with the same population as the state of Hawaii.
The Royal Bahraini Army totals about 6,000 total personnel including file clerks and the marching band. It is comprised of 1 armored brigade, 1 mechanized infantry brigade, 1 artillery brigade, plus 1 air defense battalion and 1 special forces battalion. Their equipment is mostly 70’s and some 90’s vintage. The field personnel and advanced military equipment of the Saudi incursion of 3,500 soldiers roughly equals or may even surpass the field strength of the entire Bahraini ground defense forces.
Current tactics against the Bahraini protesters include attacks from groups of armed men without uniforms, setting fires to protester’s tents, beating people, and using a variety of firearms that include live rounds. Incidents of snipers killing protesters with headshots have been reliably confirmed.
Did I say there was anger in Iran? Rage is a more appropriate term.
Iranian President Ahmadinejad today made a series of impassioned statements that spoke of “unjustifiable and irreversible” acts of violence against the protesters. “This military invasion was a foul and doomed experience,” he told Iranian official media.
It gets worse.
Ahmadinejad is not alone. The Majlis, which is the Iranian version of parliament, said it would take diplomatic actions to ‘put an end to the slaughter of people in Bahrain.’
A member of the Majlis Committee on National Security and Foreign Policy told Iranian official media, “The Saudi’s should know for a fact that Tehran will use all the power and potentials at its disposal to halt the oppression of the people of Bahrain.”
Iranian press reported that he went on warn that Iran ‘would take measures to ensure regional security’ and said Iran ‘would confront and neutralize invaders that bring instability to the region.’
“Of course, we hope the Islamic Republic of Iran will not be forced to take such actions,” the lawmaker finished ominously.
Iranian Defense Minister, Brigadier General Vahidi, added a peculiar sort of fuel to the fire. He’s the military spokesperson for Iran who often warns the United States and Israel that if they were to attack Iran in any way, his forces would instantly respond with their total strength and destroy every Western military asset everywhere. He’s usually a little over the top.
But today he toned down his usual rhetoric, telling Iranian media, “Should such miscalculated and legally-unjustified actions become a norm, the region would turn into a center for incendiarism, hostility and conflict.” He went on to say that it will ‘heighten tensions and deteriorate stability and security in the entire region.’
When a bombastic military type starts speaking more softly, it’s probably a good time to listen more closely. The closer to actual conflict, the more somber and quiet they tend to become.
From three different angles, Iran seems poised to make a move in Bahrain.
Question is, what sort of move?
Almost certainly, Iran will supply funds and armiments to proxies in and around Bahrain through their usual channels. That should mean an uptick in military action in Yemen, and perhaps Oman. Shia in the UAE and the other littoral states of the Gulf will probably be encouraged to act more boldly against their governments. Certainly, disaffected Shia in Saudi Arabia will be told to make a maximum amount of trouble for the House of Saud.
In Egypt and Lebanon, Iran could initiate serious actions that could have grave consequences for the United States and Israel. Iran blames America for the Saudi invasion of Bahrain. Ahmadinejad stressed today that Iran and other “regional nations hold the US government accountable for such a heinous behavior…. The US seeks to save the Zionist regime (of Israel) and suppress popular uprisings. So, it supports certain governments.”
Iran has been shoveling money to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Will it now call in the favor and request a sudden stronger effort to unseat the military junta there, throwing US and Israeli regional policy into further disarray? No doubt such a request would be looked upon favorably, because the popular revolutionaries of Egypt surely see kindred spirits in the Bahraini rebels.
Iran has a direct line to Hezbollah in Lebanon. That crucial Arab crucible of different religions and peoples has been teetering on the brink of civil war and/or war with Israel for years. It is very near a tipping point. Will Iran breathe on the shaky Lebanese house of cards and bring it down in a fall that will mean regional war for all concerned?
The above actions would mean serious trouble for the United States, Israel, and all the Western nations. Oil prices, already extremely volatile from the current line of crises that stretch from Egypt to Libya to Japan, would go into afterburners in a sprint toward $200 a barrel if the prime oil fields of Saudi Arabia are perceived to be in danger. If that happens, bid a fond farewell to even the slimmest hope for an economic recovery.
But will Iran go further?
Could they be seriously contemplating direct action in Bahrain?
The Saudis’ intransigence of sending government Arab troops against the Arab people of another nation has opened Pandora’s box. It is possible Iran now feels empowered to respond with military force on the side of the protesters. If so, that should blow the lid off the Middle East entirely. Iran may not be willing to start the final showdown. But they may consider the showdown to be already in progress.
Most likely their response will be limited to proxies. They have built up enough clandestine power in the other nations of the region that they will probably go that route to confront the Saudi escalation.
But if they go the direct route, you will probably be very happy you made the decision to have emergency and disaster supplies and a reasonable store of food and water on hand at your location 24/7.
You have made that decision, yes?
If not, please consider a few eyewitness reports coming from Japan, bless them all.
Japan has long been considered the nation most prepared for disasters.
“… supermarkets were open but shelves were completely empty. Many children are sick in this cold weather but pharmacies are closed. Emergency relief goods have not reached evacuation centers in the city.”
“I’m wondering how long we can manage with the food we have in stock. Everyone is anxious and wants to get out of town. But there is no more petrol. We are afraid of using a car as we may run out of petrol.”
‘Millions have been left without water, electricity, fuel or enough food and hundreds of thousands more are homeless and facing harsh conditions with sub-zero temperatures overnight, and snow and rain forecast.’
