One of many concerns about the turmoil in Libya has been whether Qaddafi would use the tons of chemical weapons he had at his disposal against the Libyan rebels. Those weapons included deadly mustard gas packed into artillery shells. Protecting the rebels from a barrage of this sinister gas was one of the reasons cited for the US/Nato/UN Libyan Campaign against Qaddafi.

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, an independent agency sponsored by 98% of the world’s nations (188) and enjoying a ‘working relationship’ with the United Nations, had been overseeing the destruction of Libya’s mustard-gas stockpile with the permission of Qaddafi, who was once again trying to ‘make nice’ with the West. Unfortunately, that work was not complete when Libya went south.

Thousands of mustard gas artillery shells (MGAS) in were in Benghazi when the rebels took it.

Today, Israeli sources with Mossad connections confirmed that the rebels had seized a large portion of Qadaffi’s cache of MGAS as spoils of war.

That would be bad enough, since it is unknown how far the rebels would go in employing the MGAS against the loyalist troops of Qadaffi. But the Israeli sources today reported that the rebels have transferred a minimum of 2,000 MGAS to Hezbollah and Hamas for millions of dollars, bankrolled by their patron state, Iran. Perhaps that cash transited through Syria on its way. More about the Syrian connection later in this post.

That would be bad enough. But the Israeli sources also say that 1,200 nerve gas artillery shells (NGAS) were included in the deal.
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Today a conference of Foreign Ministers of 40 nations gathered in London to decide what to do next in Libya.
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I paused several hours after I realized that sentence would be the opening to this post. The implications are… I don’t have the right word for it yet… staggering? incredible? stupefying?… no, still don’t have it.

I’ve been trying to think of another time in the history of the world when a similar thing happened. My wife came up with the time that I think is closest to it: the situation after World War II, when nations and regions were cobbled together and hacked apart in a post-war orgy of political terraforming.

But then it was a handful of victor nations dividing the spoils. And the major lines were being drawn by the chief executive of each of the conquering nations. The details were handled by state departments, but the decisions were made at the top.

So even that time is not really similar to the current maelstrom with Libya at its eye.

Foreign ministers, appointees of the governments of each of those 40 nations, will determine the political objectives of the… okay, I’ve got to call it something… Libyan Campaign.
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Potassium iodide: should you stock some?

That is a big question in the wake of the Japanese nuclear disaster. The true extent of the release of radioactive materials from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station’s six reactors is hidden behind an inscrutable corporate wall, with the willing help of the Japanese government and all the governments of the world who want more and more and more nuclear power plants.

Radioactive iodine-131 from has been found, well, just about everywhere. (more…)

Libya No Fly War, two posts ago, contained comments on how Russia was using the Libyan… whatever it is… as a stepping stone for increasing their international relevance and power. That thought was encapsulated in the sentence, “The Russian Bear wants to get back its growl.”

Israel Gaza War II, the most recent post, asked, “Do (the Israelis) trust Obama to follow through on promises made by the US to Israel through the decades?

Today, the picture comes into sharper focus, as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu pays a visit to Russian Prime Minister Putin in Moscow while, in an unbelievably amazing coincidence, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal is in town at the same time.

Israeli sources outside the government reported earlier that Putin was trying to finesse a ‘discrete meeting’ between his two visitors, which he hoped would also include the Saudi Chief of Intelligence, whom Al-Faisal brought with him to Moscow.

This meeting is very likely to happen, whether we find out about or not. The odds against those four people being in the same place at the same time by chance (more…)

As the semi-US-led… whatever it is… in Libya flitters around like a leaf in the wind, and vicious rumors circulate that Egypt is contemplating coming in on the Qaddafi side…

As Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Qatar answer the House of Saud’s siren call to help pacify Bahrain with their troops, and Bahraini airlines suspend flights to Iran, Iraq and Lebanon for fear Shia fighters will use a commercial airlift to infiltrate that tiny country…

As the kidnapping of seven cyclists from Estonia marks the beginning of hostage season again in Lebanon, where 88 nationals of other countries were abducted between 1984 and 1990, and Prime Minister designate Miqati furiously attempts to cobble together a government before his hourglass runs out of sand…

… the real story right now is Israel.
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Marred by indecision, half-measures and second guessing before it was finally introduced in the Security Council, UN resolution 1973 is being prosecuted in much the same manner.

The hundred million dollar (plus) barrage of Tomahawk cruise missiles, along with the bombs and strafing runs of French and British warplanes and VTOL assets from the USS Kearsarge, have made an impression on the world.

But not a good one.

The Arab League is decrying the Libyan civilian casualties caused by the missiles and bombing. League Secretary-General Moussa said today, “What is happening in Libya differs from the aim of imposing a no-fly zone, and what we want is the protection of civilians and not the bombardment of more civilians.”

Did they think that exploding boatloads of high explosives in populated areas could possibly come without the price of innocent lives? Do they seriously expect anyone to believe that they thought a no fly zone could be established without something blowing up on the ground?

But now (more…)

First Libya…

1. 20 plus French warplanes are forcing Qaddafi air force out of the sky. They decided not to wait for the multinational conference held today to talk about how to implement the UN resolution 1973. The French are there first because the France has long considered Libya, part of their old North African territories, as within their current sphere of influence, economically, politically and militarily. They were quite happy to go. Overjoyed, in fact.

2. French aircraft are also destroying targets on the ground. Tanks, APCs and other Qaddafi mechanized armor seems to be first order of business. No word about radar, anti-missile batteries being hit yet, but expect that news soon.

3. Iranian official news reports that the flagship of the French navy, the nuclear aircraft carrier Charles De Gaulle is on its way to Libya. Why it is not already there is a little hard to explain. (more…)

Since the passage of the UN resolution authorizing a no fly zone in Libya, there has been absolutely no visible action by any of the supposed ‘coalition of the willing’ toward implementing it. Despite the fact that on the eve of the vote it was said over and over that planes were ready to fly, and the rebels needed help immediately. That perhaps even a few hours of delay would make all the difference.

Well, it’s way past that point now. And still the bickering goes on.

The US wants European and Arab nations to do the heavy lifting. We will provide ‘logistical support’.
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It’s on.

The UN Security Council at 6:33 pm passed the French resolution for a no-fly zone in Libya, the language of which allows the UN member nations who decide to participate complete freedom to do whatever they decide it will take to establish such a zone.

In other words, whatever Obama and his generals think is necessary is okay.

I believe we can expect warplanes to be taking off from the decks of the US carriers in place within hours. That is the timeframe the French ambassador to the UN mentioned in his presentation… that the UN “had only days. Perhaps has only hours,” before it would be too late to help the Libyan rebels.

A barrage of missiles from US assets off the shores of Tripoli will possibly precede the anti-radiation (radar) Weasel-type aircraft who will most likely then take out Qaddafi’s anti-aircraft batteries.

Whether there will be boots on the ground from the Kearsarge Amphibious Group remans to be seen.

Whether Qaddafi’s bold threats to attack everything from the shores of Tripoli to the Eiffel Tower actually materialize remains to be seen.

Although there will be very likely be no immediate military effect in the United States itself from this action, it is difficult to say what repercussions might occur in terms of oil and food supplies, and how soon we might feel those repercussions. Economic repercussions will occur at some point in time.

My recommendation is as always. Have enough food, water, first aid and other emergency supplies on hand 24/7. Do not wait until stores are empty. Benefit from the lessons of Japan. It is too late for them to stock for an emergency. It is not too late for you. Yet.

Egypt refused Secretary of State Clinton’s request for airfields from which to stage a no-fly zone in Libya.

The UN, however looks poised to sanction military intervention immediately.

Up for a vote this evening is a measure that would at the least establish an instant no-fly zone for the rebel stronghold of Benghazi. Perhaps establish a no-fly zone for the entire country. Perhaps go as far as allowing military action that would completely emasculate Qaddafi’s army and air force. The latter choice seems to be what the Obama administration is now recommending to the UN.

The vote is due to take place around 6 pm local time New York City.

That’s 90 minutes from the time of this post. Although it could drag on interminably, or not even come to a vote tonight.

That seems unlikely, however. If there is not a resolution this evening in New York, it may come too late for the rebels in Benghazi.

“We are coming tonight,” Qaddafi told the people of Benghazi via radio, after he heard of the imminent UN vote. He emphasized, “there won’t be any mercy.”
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