Drumbeats of War - Will Quds Day be War Day?
Everyone is wondering.
First, you must know that Quds, or al-Quds, is the Muslim name for Jerusalem.
World Quds Day is an invention of the late founder of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, Imam Khomeini. It’s purpose is to show ’solidarity with the Palestinian nation’ and ‘express hate for Israel’.
This year the Iranians are putting a great deal of effort into publicizing the date, which is always the last Friday of Ramadan. Which happens to be tomorrow, September 3, Iran local time. A couple of hours from the time this post will appear.
Rallies are encouraged across the Muslim world. Iran assures everyone that Iran will be holding many such events. In pre-celebration, roving bands of hoods are attacking opposition clerics and leaders, with the Iranian police turning their heads and letting it happen. The security head for one of the clerics is in hospital in a coma. The son of same cleric, when asked if he and his father would attend a Quds Day rally, said, “Will we still be alive tomorrow?” Kind of gives you the feeling of the holiday, yes?
Israel is concerned. According to Lebanese mainstream media, ‘Israeli security authorities’ sent warnings (note: warnings, plural) via Israel radio, urging Lebanon to be “vigilant against border disturbances”, especially “attempts by Hizballah to create disturbances near the border on the occasion of Jerusalem (Quds) Day.”
Those Israeli authorities charged the Lebanese Regular Army (LRA) and the UNFIL troops in Lebanon with making sure any such disturbances do not turn “this occasion in to chaos.”
Yesterday, LRA and UNFIL forces conducted joint drills in southern Lebanon near the border with Israel. UNFIL’s Field Artillery Group, part of their Quick Reaction Forces let loose a number of live rounds along with the LRA artillery in an exercise named Neptune Thunder… I suppose because the targets were at sea.
I do not know if the drills were meant to help reassure the Israelis that the proximal Lebanese artillery was at least partially under the control of the UNFIL forces. Or if it was a statement that the LRA and UNIFL were keeping an eye on possible approaches by sea of any unnamed forces that might be coming in from the south. Or if they were just limbering up their guns to be ready for anything that might happen tomorrow.
Surely, any thing could happen, any where, tomorrow. Emotions are running quite high these days, and Quds Day is meant to fan those emotions. I would be surprised if there are not at least a spate of minor incidents, in perhaps many places. I would not be surprised if one of those ‘disturbances’, turned into something much larger. I would not be surprised if something full-scale began on Friday.
But war has been incipient for many months. It is most likely that tomorrow will be just another possibility that does not go all the way.
Still, I think it would be quite wise to, as mariners say, ‘keep a weather eye open’ for trouble on Quds Day.
