Iran today claimed to have exported gasoline, for the first time in history.

Recipient country is unnamed, and the amount of gasoline exported is unmentioned, so we must take this announcement with a grain of salt. However, it is clear that the Iranians’ intent is to prove that they have achieved self-sufficiency in this vital realm, despite all the efforts of the West, including sanctions and the Stuxnet computer malware.

There is total controversy about whether the computer worm has affected Iran’s new nuclear facility at Bushehr. (more…)

“On the face of it, this should be a non-event. They sail. They get stopped. They get towed to Ashdod.”
- previous post

And so it happened. Pretty close, anyway. The ship was boarded by IDF forces. It has been ‘diverted’ to Ashdod.

Not sure if they are being towed, or if the IDF is on board sailing the ship.

Contact with the crew and activists was terminated upon boarding.

No resistance, no violence, according to the IDF.

A non-event.

The Stuxnet computer attack is perhaps the most significant development during the current crisis in the Middle East.

This extremely sophisticated computer worm targets industrial control systems, specifically Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition systems, that manage nuclear power plants, petrochemical production facilities (including oil rigs), electrical generation stations… everything having to do with the production of energy. It can change settings. It can take over a system remotely. It is mega dangerous. And it is ‘mutating’.
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Dateline Cyprus

Sunday noon Cyprus time

Jewish activists from Israel, the United States, Germany and Britain set sail for Gaza aboard the 32-foot catamaran Irene, with a list of lading that includes medical supplies, fishing nets, and toys.

The Irene is making speed to enter the interdiction zone within 36 hours. But the extent of that zone keeps expanding over time, so there is no way of saying when they will reach the point that Israel considers them to be in violation of the blockade.

A former IDF helicopter pilot is on board to help crew the ship. (more…)

Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to extend the construction freeze to keep the Palestinian Authority at the peace talks,
or by letting the freeze expire without some sort of compromise in place… end them.

Looks like Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has come down on the side of… end them. As they expire at midnight Sunday, there is no compromise in place, at least publicly (sentence edited 9/26).

PA’s Abbas has not formally walked out of the talks yet. (sentence deleted 9/26).But his last word was, ‘no freeze, no talks’

In the meantime, (more…)

The disparate parties of Lebanon seem to be trying very hard to keep things together in the face of the crisis caused by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.

Saudis are trying be oil on troubled waters, as are, from all accounts, the Syrians. Hizballah is making non-provocative statements and keeping a lid on things at this time, although no word that their militia has come off ready status.

Most parties seem to be trying to work out things so that when the indictments from the STL arrive, which should be any day now, the country does not sink into civil war.

Which is still a definite possibility. I don’t know whether or not this is the calm before the storm, or a prelude to blue skies.

There is so much disinformation, misinformation and misdirection going around, I find little solid to post about, so I’ll post just a little.

Just one item.

Iran is having Army Week, showing off their new locally made military hardware. Usual fluffery, except for one thing.

Always avowing their military is for defense only (as all nations do), the Iranian official news media spoke of the “pre-emptive quality” of their armed forces. For the first time, as far as I have seen.

With the crisis in Lebanon, the tension on the border of Israel and… well, on all their borders… and the Israeli-Palestinian negotiators getting hot under the collar, and all sorts of other things maybe happening or maybe not happening, the declaration that Iran too considers a preemptive strike ‘defensive’ is… interesting.

Against Saudi advice, Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri returned to Lebanon today.

A crucial Cabinet session is scheduled for Tuesday local time at the Baabda Palace, which overlooks Beirut, as thousands of Hizballah armed militia swarm around Beirut in preparation for a possible coup.

Accusations as to who is responsible for former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri’s assassination, and the apparent coverup that followed, are also angrily buzzing back and forth. The same old story.

But there are some interesting twists. At the center of the beehive is General Sayyed, who just got out of prison. He was accused of complicity in the plot and spent four years in jail without charges being filed. Now the Hariri side is again accusing him, this time of fabricating lies about the plot and wants to ‘question’ him again.

But Hisballah had already accused the Hariri side of “the biggest fraud” in Lebanon’s history. And Hizballah is saying the the party to have most benefited from the assassination is… Israel.

A few months ago, that claim would not have stood. But with the circumstantial evidence Hizballah provided in counter to the indictments, a lot of Lebanese do not think the claim very far fetched at all. This makes the current crisis all the more potent.

If there is a coup, or civil war, or whatever, then when the smoke clears, if Hizballah ends up being the party that controls Lebanon, who will be next on the list for retribution… Israel?

There is an alignment of Hizballah with Syria, and a further alignment of Lebanese President Suleiman with Syria. That would seem to put Hariri against Syria. But no. Hariri told Lebanese mainstream media that he is, “committed to this strategic relationship with Syria that is built on ties between a state and another.”

Yet Hariri is the main motive force in Lebanon pushing for the Special Tribunal for Lebanon’s indictments against Hisballah to become public record at the earliest possible moment.

Hedging his bets a little? Yes, I think so.

The problem is that he has admitted that the last few years of viewing Hizballah as the perpetrators was… wrong.

So where does he go from here? Continue to castigate Hizballah, or join with them? It looks like he is trying to do both at the same time. But I can’t see how that can be successful. Maybe the Saudis agree, and that is why they advised him to stay with them a while longer and miss the fireworks.

All of the above is why tomorrow’s Cabinet meeting is crucial. Hariri will be walking the high wire without a net. Maybe he can get to the other side without igniting a Hizballah coup attempt: maybe not. Emotions are red hot in Lebanon, and the STL indictments are said to be quickly on their way to official Lebanon, with a helpful push by the French.

Again, tomorrow will be Anything Can Happen Day in Lebanon.

Middle East sources are suddenly raising the alarm about a possible coup attempt by Hisballah in Lebanon. The timeframe seems to be hours from now, perhaps a day or two, although who knows for sure. Could go on for a few days. But it looks like we have hit the cusp, the crisis time, in Lebanon.

An deeply connected Israeli source reported the incipient coup Sunday night local time, giving weight to the importance of the alert.

The indictments against Hisballah personnel are on their way, despite all attempts to delay or stop them. Hizballah has said.. and it certainly looks like their leader Nasrallah is again doing exactly what he says he will do… that they will not allow the indictments to be issued in Lebanon. Thus the coup.

Apparently Iranian President Ahmadinejad and Syrian President Assad discussed this issue during their sudden two-hour meeting yesterday. Apparently they gave their blessing to the coup, and think that Israel will allow it to happen without interfering in a military way… or that if they do interfere, it is worthwhile going ahead with the coup anyway.

According to solid Israeli sources, Hisballah called a general mobilization right after that meeting, and now have several thousand militiamen deployed throughout Beirut, the capitol of Lebanon.

According to a totally unvetted source, there are several thousand more Hisballah in the Christian region north of Beirut. They are said to be on alert for armed action if the coup actually occurs.

Will it happen? Will it be successful?

Lebanese mainstream news sources report that Lebanese President Suleiman (see previous posts) has been on the phone to Syrian President Assad as this crisis unfolds. They say Suleiman sought and received Syrian support to help Lebanon through the crisis. The Syrians are said to see Suleiman as ‘the arbiter’ in this crisis, as he was during the previous crisis in Lebanon between Hizballah and the other factions.

Making all of this easy to believe is the fact that Saad Hariri, the Prime Minister of Lebanon whose father’s assassination is the centerpoint of the crisis in Lebanon… is not in Lebanon.

He is in Saudi Arabia. Some sources say the Saudis are advising him not to return at this time. Hizballah definitely is calling for Hariri to return as soon as possible. Some media reports him about to return. Others, not.

As I said in the previous post, somewhat presciently, ‘It is always Anything Can Happen Day in Lebanon.

Looks like it’s about to happen.

If you’ve been following these posts, you know that the Obama administration’s new Comprehensive Peace Plan for the Middle East depends on the cooperation of Syria and Lebanon.

When US Middle East envoy George Mitchell left Lebanon, he did so apparently empty handed.

The question then returned to how Syrian President Assad was thinking about the US-backed Israeli offer of the return of the Golan to Syria.

In public statements, it didn’t look good for the offer. But what is for public consumption in the Middle East does not always reflect the deal about to be made under the table.

Enter Iranian President Ahmadinejad.
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