This is not nearly as hot as what is going on in Lebanon (see Lebanon Civil War) with the possibility that the current clash between factions will evolve into a civil war, or spill into a regional or even whole world war. But it is the brink of a potential conflict that, again, could easily snowball into a world conflict.

Today South Korea Defense Minister Kim Tai-Young revised the rules of combat for South Korean forces, especially the SK navy.

He released a statement saying the “new combat policy for South Korean troops guarding the volatile sea border” with North Korea was to retaliate immediately. “If North Korea fires artillery rounds south of the NLL (Northern Limit Line, corresponding with the DMZ line established at the end of the Korean War in 1952) we will respond by firing north of the NLL.”
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Although all sides in Lebanon are trying hard to prevent sudden violence from snowballing into a new Lebanese Civil War, there is no guarantee they will be successful.

There is no telling whether the turmoil will coalesce and spill across the border into Israel. I would guess all forces in the Middle East have gone to highest alert status, although there is no hard news about that.

This is what is happening as of 4 hours ago, current time 9pm on the US East Coast.

Tuesday evening Lebanon time. Shortly after the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, investigating the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Hariri in 2005 but still at the top of the Lebanese collective consciousness, issued a statement calling Nasrallah’s evidence about Israel’s part in the slaying ‘incomplete’… heavy machine gun fire broke out in Beirut, near the al-Ahbash mosque in the Burj Abu Haidar section of the Lebanese capitol.

As of this post, at least three people have been killed, including some Hizballah party officials. A supermarket has been set on fire. The Lebanese Defense Minister has suspended permits to carry firearms in all of Lebanon. But violence seems to be escalating, and weapons heavier than machine guns are now sounding across Beirut.

A non-Hisballah faction in Lebanon called Al-Abash seems to have started the melee. Now Lebanese Hizballah and Lebanese army officials are meeting with leaders of that other group, to try and get everyone to stand down.

That has not been successful so far, and at 11pm Lebanon time ‘intense machine gun fire’ began in the Ras Al-Nabaa section of Beirut.

The larger danger is, of course, that with all the armies in the Middle East already trigger-happy and nervous, this may be the incident that throws the region into a wider war with all the armies joining in.

Hopefully not. Hopefully cooler heads will prevail, and this incident will join with scores like it as something that could have been worse, but wasn’t.

But I think checking all your disaster and emergency supplies to make sure they are sufficient in case of a sudden disruption of normal service, wherever you are in the world, would be wisdom.

Did you wonder why the US and Israel were eerily silent about the fueling of the Bushehr reactor in Iran?

I wondered. Both countries said almost nothing in the news. But apparently even that was too much.

From what I can gather from Israeli sources, the fix was in. But it didn’t work. Let me explain.
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I try to never post on Sunday. Only when it is unusual and important. I’m surprised how usual that is becoming.

But I do not want to be remiss, so here we go…

Iran came through with a surprise later Sunday local time. (more…)

Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson Levy issued a statement Saturday night in Israel:

“It is totally unacceptable that a country that so blatantly violates resolutions of the Security Council, decisions of the International Atomic Energy Agency and its commitments under the NPT should enjoy the fruits of using nuclear energy.

“The international community should increase pressure on to force Iran to abide by international decisions and cease its enrichment activities and its construction of reactors.”

That’s all.

Prime Minister Netanyahu had nothing significant to say. Defense Minister Barak had nothing significant to say. Israeli sources claim that those two powerhouses of the Israeli administration were part of a deal that allowed the activation of Bushehr in exchange for sanctions against Iran. I don’t know if I believe that, frankly. But I must admit the anemic statement by an underling at the Foreign Ministry fits the accusation.

In the meantime, Iran, flush with victory, earlier today promised to show the world a new military project tomorrow. That was reported in both Iranian and Israeli sources. Oddly, that promise no longer shows on official Iranian news.

In it’s place, Iranian President Ahmadinejad is shrilly trilling to anyone who will listen that any attempt to attack Iran would be “military suicide” for any country that tried it.

Apparently the Iranians are not taking it for granted that they are out of the woods yet. They’ve said it takes 164,000 pounds of enriched uranium to fuel the reactor, over a period of about two weeks.

I wonder if they are wondering….

Those of you steeped in history will recognize the infamous proclamation of Neville Chamberlain, British Prime Minister, as he stood before his residence at Number 10 Downing Street on September 30, 1938.

“My good friends, for the second time in our history a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time.”

He had been to Munich. He had given the German Reich permission to annex a portion of Czechoslovakia which was of crucial strategic value to the Czechs, and he knew that would allow Germany to swallow Czechoslovakia whole. Which it did.

World War II began a year later, September 1, 1939.
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Swift reaction in Iran and the Arab world to the Obama administration press release that there is no need for a preemptive strike against Iran at this time.

Israeli sources with deep military, intelligence and direct Mossad connections are painting a picture with a crimson palette. The portrait has been hurriedly completed because they obviously feel time is of the essence. But the substance of the oeuvre more than makes up for the imperfections of haste. They have my respect.

Iran and Syria are prepared for war to come at any moment. In Iran, the Revolutionary Guards report “full readiness” to counter any moves by the US and Israel. Not US or Israel. US and Israel.

The Syrian ministers of security and emergency services were instructed by Syrian Prime Minister al-Otari to bring their resources to “immediate war readiness”.

On the West Bank, the leader of the Palestinian Authority Abbas is said to have dismissed the possibility of direct talks with Israel because “a big military surprise awaits the Middle East”.

Apparently the Iranians and Arab nations consider the Obama administration’s Times article curtly dismissing the possibility of war, and the Israeli scandal involving IDF generals, both as deceptions to cover war preparations. Amazingly and confusingly, the IDF scandal, which was over a few hours ago, has had new life pumped into it with fresh revelations of possible misconduct.

At this point may I say that confusion can be an effective tactic at the start of a war.

Confusion when one wants peace is the kiss of death.

That there are mixed messages coming from the West is absolutely clear. Despite the Times article, there is an overwhelming presence of American sea and land and air power in the Middle East, poised like the eagle which is symbol of our country, ready to swoop down at a moment’s notice. US Marines are at the border of Lebanon and training in the Negev desert of Israel, always in company with IDF troops. They have had their photos splashed across Israeli media, which can only happen with official military approval, rarely granted.

There is talk in Washington, the Israeli sources say… although I do not know the degree of accuracy on this… talk of a multinational strike against Iran that would include not only the US and Israel, but also Germany, Britain and France. True or not, this isn’t crazy talk. There have been innumerable exercises among those nations during the past two years, preparing for a join action against Iran.

But the big question remains. Is everyone shrieking up to their highest readiness levels only because there is an obvious possibility of imminent action by the West in response to the sudden fueling of the Bushehr reactor? Or are the powers of both sides actually ready to rock-n-roll?

None but the mighty men of the nations know, and they’re not telling.

In one of the more amazing acts of timing in the life of the present administration, just hours before the Bushehr nuclear reactor is fueled in Iran, the Thursday evening edition of the New York Times ran an article stating that the Obama administration “has persuaded Israel” that it would take a year or longer for Iran to complete a nuclear weapon. So don’t even worry about Bushehr.
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Israel

Remember yesterday’s big scandal involving the top generals of the Israeli Defense forces?

All over. No disarray in the ranks. Everything’s fine

Israeli Attorney General Weinstein has informed Defense Minister Barak that he is now free to continue the process of selecting a new IDF Chief of Staff as planned. Not even one of the IDF generals were involved in the so-called Galant document. Everybody’s clean.

I wish we in the United States could handle crises like that. Less than 24 hours. Is that some kind of record, or what?

Makes my head spin.

I wonder if there was any pressing need to have the IDF close ranks quickly….

Iraq

The last of the US combat forces left Iraq today.

What I found interesting is that the US forces just went next door to Kuwait, right on the edge of the Persian Gulf.
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Eleven Israeli warplanes violated Lebanese airspace so far today.

One flight of 8, one of 2, and a singleton.

Israeli reconnaissance over Lebanon is not unusual. In fact, it happens often. And only seldom do they get shot at.

They were not shot at today. The Lebanese just filed a protest with UNFIL, which of course will be ignored.

It just seems to me 11 violations is a bit much.

Especially just after the Israelis defined their own airspace so precisely.

Also…

Big hoo-ha is brewing in the top ranks of the IDF. A bunch of generals are wrangling for top spot when current Chief of Staff steps down, perhaps next year, perhaps now because of this scandal-in-a-teapot.

Israeli military sources are all atwitter (literally) about a disparaging letter that was sent in somebody’s name to somebody, who didn’t tell everybody about it. I really, really do not see what the big deal is. Perhaps I’m missing something.

Anyway, the outside world is supposed to look at this and think the IDF is in disarray.

And that’s all I have to say about that.