Drumbeats of War - Lebanon to Syria
Lebanon has been in constant internal conversation about the crisis spawned by the violence in the streets of Beirut last week. Leaders of all Lebanese factions are terribly concerned that conflict between groups will tear Lebanon apart… soon.
Lebanon is extremely fractured and factionated, even for a Middle East country. It has been in shards for quite some time. But now things seem to be getting out of hand to the point that some Lebanese leaders are calling for the total band of weapons in the hands of ‘citizen groups’. But that is now part of current Lebanese culture. That dog won’t hunt.
So leaders are asking how to make Lebanon coalesce. The answer seems to lie in the direction of Syria and Iran.
The crisis on the border of Lebanon and Israel earlier in the month caused the US to pull away from supplying the Lebanese Army. Lebanon was disturbed by that. But when the US reoffered military aid, we added the codicil that the aid would henceforth be dependent upon Lebanon pledging never to use US weaponry against Israel. That instantly caused the bond between the US and Lebanon that had been so strong at one time… to dissolve like a cake in the rain.
There was a statement by one leader that put the Lebanese standpoint in sharp perspective. He said that guns pointed at Israel was honorable, but guns pointed at each other was not.
Iran stepped in and said they would gladly supplant the US in supplying the Lebanese Army, and, unsurprisingly, it would be perfectly fine with them if those weapons were pointed at Israel. When Iran’s Foreign Minister was asked if the offer included the most advanced missiles Iran has, the diplomat, being a diplomat, did not directly say yes. But he indicated a probable positive answer with a diplomatic ,’why not?’
So the Lebanese leaders of all stripes and spots seem to have come to a signal agreement. Let Iran arm Lebanon. Quickly.
Really quickly. If you read the previous post, you have an inkling of how the Lebanese are feeling. A little panicky.
In that spirit of urgency, Prime Minister Hariri has been dispatched by all parties to Syria. Quickly. Lebanese sources say early next week. That is quite unusually quick for visit by a head of state. I’m guessing he is going with a military armaments ‘wish list’ in hand.
Why not to Iran? Syria is the go-between. Consider the rumors reported in the previous post about Israel poised to strike arms depots in Syria that ostensibly are marshaling Iranian weapons with a Lebanese Hizballah delivery address on them.
I almost hate to bring up this next point, but it may be of value in trying to figure out what is going on, and when it will happen.
On August 6, there was a request from Israel for the US to sell two billion dollars worth of fuel to them at once. That sort of thing has to go through the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency, who reports the request to the US Congress for approval. Law requires the request to be open to public knowledge. There is no requirement for the answer to be made public, and the request had language assuring Congress that it did not impact the readiness of the US military, so no need for discussion.
The request was duly reported at the time on defense oriented sites in the webosphere, and a few people commented on it. After that, the issue went dark. There is no indication of whether the sale happened at all, or was a done deal at the time of the formal request for authorization.
However, it is at the forefront of Israeli sources today. Interesting.
Because the fuel requested was 60,000,000 gallons of unleaded gasoline, 100,000,000 gallons of diesel, and… the kicker… 284 million gallons of jet fuel. The type requested is the military version of regular Jet A-1 fuel, with certain additives for military purposes. It is NOT commercial airliner fuel.
The amount of jet fuel translates into one billion liters. Which is exactly what some military analysts have estimated as the amount needed for Israel to pull off a preemptive strike against Iran. Kinda too coincidental, don’t you think?
The Israeli sources bringing this to light certainly think so.
Shelf life of this particular jet fuel is up to a year and a half, but recommended use-by-date is 8 months for long range flights, as the one to Iran would be. However, if it has been in storage for a while already, usable life is reduced by the time of storage. If it comes from US jet fuel tank farms in the Middle East, it could be good for only a few weeks, or a couple of months, or half a year.
This stuff is not very stabile, because of the additives. It does not store well, especially in hot weather. Actually, it stores quite dangerously. I would think one would not want it around very long before one had need of it.
So there are a lot of unknowns. What it is really for. Whether the sale went through or not. If so, when. And how long the actual fuel delivered is good for.
But within the framework of current events in the Middle East, it is interesting. Very interesting.
