In the July 12 post Drumbeats of War - Iran War Conference, I wrote:

But things change so quickly in the Middle East. There may be some surprises. No… there will be some surprises. I suppose we’ll find out together, when they happen.

Truer words were never spoken.

This unique and crucial conference is now firmly scheduled for this Friday, July 30.

The list of powerful oil kings scheduled to attend to discuss war with Israel has changed tremendously.

The agenda of the conference seems to have shifted even more seismically.

Whether the changes are for good or for ill, I’ll let you decide.

If you want the bottom line first, you’ll have to skip to the end of this post. But it makes more sense if you read all the way through first. Your choice.

In the previous post there was a listing of potentates who might attend:

Syrian President Assad His presences at the conference was doubtful. Now it is pivotal to the conference and is is almost certain he will attend.

Qatar Emir Khaled bin Khlaif al-Thani He has played the dual roles of peacemaker/kingmaker in Lebanon before. His presence was probable, and is now almost a certainty.

King of Bahrain Hamad bin Issa al Khalifa He was a possibility, but since the Bahrain is home to U.S. Naval Forces Central Command and the United States Fifth Fleet, it was kind of doubtful, considering the probable agenda mentioned in the July 12 post. But with the present agenda, he will almost certainly be there.

Now for the big surprises.

Saudi King Abdullah Not even on the list last time, his presence is almost guaranteed. That changes everything.

It looks like he has supplanted
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the centerpiece of the conference. He does not seem to be on the list any more, if in fact he ever was. If he does attend, feathers are almost sure to fly between Ahmadinejad and the Saudi… unless there are even more twists to this conference than are apparent, which I would not rule out.

Not clear is who the Lebanese host of the conference will turn out to be.

Is Lebanese President Michel Suleiman still in charge? I’m thinking not, because of the change of guests and agenda.

Or has the gavel has passed to Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri? I think that likely, because he just sent 1,500 additional Lebanese regular army troops to the border to protect the French UNIFIL forces that the July 12 post mentioned were being harassed by Hisballah.

Did I miss anyone?

Ah. Yes. Thanks for reminding me. Lebanese Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Since the previous agenda was widely touted as a war conference to decide when an attack against Israel might be most auspicious, Nasrallah was certainly going to be there. He was to meet Assad at the airport. Climb out of his hidey hole for a really big day in the sun, even at the risk of attracting a drone or two or three.

But now…

Israeli sources say the prime purpose of the conference is for Saudi King Abdullah to offer a new alliance to President Assad of Syria. Away from Hisballah and Iran. Toward Saudi Arabia and their satellite states… and by extension toward the West… and by further extension… Israel.

Gangbusters, brothers and sisters.

That would put an entirely new face on the Middle East.

As you may be already thinking, this is anathema to Nasrallah, who has vowed to destroy the current regime in power in Israel.

Reports from those who have ties with Israeli intelligence say he told his aids today that he will not allow the Saudis plans to succeed. This seems to be true, because today a car bomb decimated the Saudis’ Al Arabiya TV offices in Iraq, killing four and wounding many others. The Israelis are crediting a Hisballah-linked group for the hit.

The 1,500 Lebanese regular army sent precipitously to the border is another sign that the heat is being turned up by Hisballah.

And cementing the scenario is Israeli Defense Minister Barak, long known for getting his ducks in line to make a preemptive strike on Iran and anyone else who wants a piece of the action. He is the one who planned and ran the action on the deadly event that left 9 bodies on the ship that tried to break the Gaza blockade. And he has the earliest access to what Israeli intelligence turns up.

Sunday, Barak, told reporters in Washington DC, where he often visits, that time is up regarding rocket attacks from Hisballah. The Jerusalem Post headlined it this way: “If Hisbullah strikes, we hit Lebanon”

Barak was reported to have added, “If Hizballah fires a rocket into Tel Aviv, we will not run after each Hizballah terrorist or launcher… We will see it as legitimate to hit any target that belongs to the Lebanese state, not just Hizballah.”

Israeli media with strong intelligence sources say there is an extremely high probability that Nasrallah will try to bring about a causus belli on the border before the conference takes place. Whether he will be able to do that with the additional Lebanese regular army there is not certain. It is possible that even if such an incident takes place, some in the military, Israeli, Lebanese or both, might turn their head and try to ignore it, knowing it is the lives of their brothers and sisters that will be sent into the crucible.

But there are a lot of people on both sides yearning for war. As Barak also said yesterday, “probably, at a certain point, we should realize that sanctions cannot work.” War may come sooner than anyone had planned.

And now, as a famous broadcaster loved to say… the rest of the story.

There is a thin possibility, not dared to be whispered by any other source at present, that the Saudis will throw a flash-bang onto the world stage and offer an olive branch to Iran through this Syrian contact. Instead of trying to break up the alliance between Iran, Syria and Lebanon, join forces with them. Create a pan-Arab block of tremendous power, not seen in the better part of half a century. Would that make war with the West less likely… or more likely?

If war does come, there will be great disruption worldwide. Please be prepared best you can. If it does not happen now, or does not happen ever (bet me), having your household ready for a sudden emergency is always good.

Here’s my favorite online source for prepackaged emergency food and other necessary items: Nitro-Pak

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