Drumbeats of War - Russia, Iran Join Against US Sanctions
This is the story behind the news.
On October 17, 2007 an historic accord was signed by the nations bordering the Caspian Sea… Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Representatives of each state, including Iranian President Ahmadinejad and Russian President Putin came together to discuss how to divide the huge, proven oil and gas reserves in the shallow waters of the Caspian sea.
They made progress in solving the thorny issues of who gets how much of what. But the real work was done regarding military relationships between those nations. They created a mutual agreement that resulted in a non-aggression pact between the signatory powers.
The news release read, “under no circumstances will they allow the use of their territories by other countries to launch aggression or other military action against any of the member states.”
Ahmadinejad said afterward that, “All sides of the Caspian Sea countries asserted that their armed forces will never be used to attack or invade any of them”. Russia and Iran. Attack one, attack the other.
And there was a very significant additional agreement voiced to the media by then-President Putin. “All the Caspian Sea governments support the agreement, which is against the proliferation of nuclear weapons, but declares we all have the right to develop peaceful nuclear programme.”
Now, in mid July of 2010, we are seeing the fruits of those agreements.
Russia has honored it’s commitment to its comrades in Iran, and rescued them from the US oil and gas sanctions which were having deep effect on the Iranian economy, and looked likely to bring them either to their knees or the brink of war.
On Thursday, Iranian Oil Minister Kazemi secured from Russian Energy Minister Shmatko a ‘road map’ outlining full cooperation in supplying critical petrochemical products, including the bottleneck in the Iranian energy sector… gasoline. Shmatko declared, “The sanctions cannot stop us.”
Further and deeper, the Russians, who had said the UN sanctions forbade them from honoring their promised sale of the high technology S-300 anti-air missile system, now say the contract is still valid.
The World Aeronautical Press Agency reported that Sergi Chemezov, head of Rostekhnologil, which is supposedly privately held, but of course controlled by the Kremlin, said basically that unless the current Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev, stepped in and stopped it, the sale would be completed. Rostekhologil is the sole producer of the S-300.
And as you probably know, Medvedev is completely in the shadow of Putin. What Putin wants in this matter, Medvedev will do.
If the Russians renege on the contract, it will cost them about 800 Million USD in hard cash to repay Iran’s prepayment for the system, and might have an effect on the 500 Million USD per year deals they have to sell Iran other armaments.
Of course, Iran needs the gasoline more than anything else. But they really need the S-300 system to protect their nuclear facilities. Or at least it will help some. The Israeli’s practiced defeating the S-300 when they drilled in Greek airspace some months ago.
Which brings up the S-400, perhaps the most advanced defensive anti-air missile system on the planet. Russia has talked about selling this state-of-the-technology shield to both North Korea and Turkey. Is it possible that under the new umbrella of agreements they would offer the same to Iran, instead of the S-300? Or would Turkey dare ’share’ a couple of the new systems with Iran? No word on that from anyone. I’m just wondering.
That would not only put a bump in the road for an Israeli airstrike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, it would present some significant problems for the United States, if a preemptive strike… or more… is being considered.
Timing.
Timing is everything, as the superheated cauldron of the Middle East threatens to pour out its flaming elixir of oil and power upon the nations of the world.
July 17th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
You are such a good writer!! I just read your recent post and was struck by it’s concise clarity and poetry.It is a joy to read you.
Signed-
An admirer