Drumbeats of War - Oil Ship Attack
Updates chronicle the shifting story of the attack on the Japanese supertanker M. Star.
Even the UAE officials have discarded the rogue wave fantasy. The head of the port at Fujairah where the M. Star is anchored now says the ship was involved in a collision, maybe with a sea mine, maybe with a submarine. Although no one aboard the ship saw anything that could have caused such a collision. And if it had been a mine, the ship would very likely have been much more extensively damaged.
Mitsui OSK Lines, owners of the M. Star have retained a Dubai-based specialist in military attacks to inspect the M. Star and report his findings.
New photography of the ship reveals paint damage at the seams, some buckling above the square where the impact occurred. The point of impact, just above the waterline, is more pronounced. It looks like a relatively small object hit the ship 3 to 4 feet above the waterline with great force, but little explosive power. That is in line with the Lloyd’s List DCN assessment of a rocket propelled grenade.
It is interesting that the UAE is still trying hard to convince people the cause of the damage was not an attack. The hit was on the side of the ship facing the UAE at the time. The flash of light seen by a crew member immediately before the ship was hit apparently came from the UAE side. I stress ‘apparently’. There is no solid word on that.
Clearly, the UAE does not want anyone to think that they instigated the attack, nor that any ‘rogue element’ from theirs or any other country fired a weapon at the ship from their territory. Understandable. I’m personally sure the UAE did not sanction such an attack. But in the heat of the Middle East, tempers flare easily, and actions can be taken that might be regretted after it is too late to take them back. So again, very understandable.
Who did it?
Pirates are still at the top of the list for pretty much everyone. That’s probably good, although kind of fanciful. They seek ransom, not random destruction.
The only other place to pin the rap is Iran. Whether perpetrated by a ‘rogue element’ of the Republican Guard, or an official act, I have little doubt it would lead to war if it was decided the weapon had Iranian origins.
Could whatever it was that hit the ship have come from Iran? Yes. Fired from an Iranian small boat that was on the UAE side of the ship. Very possible. Very unlikely, I think. Could it have been fired from Iran, and tracked around the ship before impact? Yes. And it is not certain which side the crewman saw the flash come from. Even if he was sure it was from the UAE side, flashes like that can be perceived incorrectly.
But the Iranians are pushing hard to disassociate from the incident. They issued a statement confirming that the ship ” had been in Oman waters when the incident occurred.” (Which puts it almost in or in the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier reports suggested it was not so close to the Strait.) And the Iranians were quick to note that in 2007 a US sub collided with a Japanese crude tanker south of the Strait. Although where the M. Star incident occurred, there is very little room for a submerged sub the size of two football fields. But a lot of room for a mini-sub, which the Iranians have in large numbers.
Could it have been a ‘false flag’ incident with the perpetrator being the United States, as some in the blogisphere are suggesting? I think not. If we had done did it, the ship would have exploded and gone down. And I think we are not ready for war quite yet.
The United States so far is quite willing to accept that Iran had nothing to do with it. They are quite willing to accept that we had nothing to do with it. So far.
The incident is far from closed. We’ll see what happens as the story keeps shifting.
