Drumbeats of War - Nuclear Iran, Nuclear Saudi Arabia
Iran’s Bushehr reactor, built and nuclear fuel furnished by Russia, is ahead of schedule. The Chairman of the Iranian Atomic Energy Commission said yesterday that it passed the crucial ‘hot water’ test, and other ‘test runs’. Both Russia and Iran say it will be on line within 8 weeks. Israel has never permitted a nuclear facility in the Middle East to go on line, except of course for their own nuclear facilities.
The window for Israeli and/or US military action now seems to be clearly delimited.
On May 20, 2010, this blog posted Drumbeats of War - Obama Sends Carriers to Gulf, which spoke of a second US Carrier Strike Group headed by the USS Harry S Truman possibly steaming for Iranian waters. That has occurred.
The same post projected two or possibly three additional Carrier Strike Groups to be in striking distance of Iran by late July or early August.
One of those groups, headed by the USS Nassau, arrived in the area the last week of June. The Nassau is configured specifically for amphibious landings on foreign shores, as are Nassau’s contingent ships.
You can do the math.
Saudi Arabia, who is rumored to be sanguine about a Israeli preemptive attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, has decided to join the nuclear club with the help of France. The program is being fast-tracked.
Saudi Arabia is the counterweight to Iran in the Middle East, and is jealous of their hegemony in the area, especially the surrounding countries of Yemen, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. They have looked at Iran with a jaundiced eye since its power started growing in association with Syria and Lebanon, and of course with the construction of the Bushehr reactor. That reactor gives Iran tremendous cachet with Arab nations.
The Saudi move toward nuclear power is said by Israeli sources to be having a domino effect, with preliminary negotiations for nuclear power plants apparently proceeding between Egypt and Jordan and the nuclear supplier countries of the world. It is easy to believe Egypt is on that track: a little more difficult to accept Jordan wanting nukes. However, there has been previous talk about both nations joining the nuclear club, with the US mentioned as supplier, so it is a possible reality.
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