Drumbeats of War - Lebanon War Conference
The meeting between Middle Eastern rulers on July 30 was going to have great significance from its inception. It started as a war conference between Iran, Syria and Lebanon, and then mystically morphed into a clash between the two hegemonic states of the region, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Now events are overtaking all involved, so that what happens on Friday may end with an agreement that will bring peace for the present time, or shatter the region with a great war that may spread far beyond the oil-rich sands.
Lebanese diplomatic sources now say that Iranian President Ahmadinejad will not attend. He has postponed his visit to Lebanon until after the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, which runs August 11 through September 9, more or less. None of the 70-member Iranian delegation will be at the conference.
King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia will have a clear playing field to try snatching Syrian President Assad out of the Iranian team, and press him to ally with the Saudi block.
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri seems overjoyed about the potential Saudi overtures.
On the one hand, he seems to be supportive of Hizballah and its leader Nasrallah, saying “any Israeli threat against any Lebanese party is like a threat against the whole of Lebanon.”
At the same time, he said that his “decision to open a new chapter in the relations with Syria was irreversible”, adding that he had intended “to visit Iran during the current month, but the remarks about a possible visit by President Ahmadinejad led to postponing the visit to a future date.”
Okay. What does that mean? After thinking about it, I’m not sure if he is promising Lebanon’s loyalty to Iran… or is rather messaging that Lebanon will side with Syria if Syria decides to shift camps from Iran to Saudi leadership.
Because something very poignant is coming up.
The Special Tribunal for Lebanon, a criminal investigative court in the Hague, Netherlands, set up by the UN under Lebanese law (how weird is that?) is about to indict some high ranking Hizballah officials for the assassination of Rafik Hariri, who was Lebanese Prime Minister at the time of his murder.
Rafik Hariri… Saad Hariri. Any relation? Yep, father and son.
Hizballah Secretary General Nasrallah is livid over the indictments. Talking about how the evidence is tainted. Blaming Israeli spies. He is extremely worried about them, and has every right to be worried.
The indictments could open a festering wound in Lebanon that could take down the Presidency of Michel Suleiman, destroy the alliance between Hizballah and the elected Lebanese government, restart the Lebanon Civil War, and remove Lebanon as a credible threat against Israel for the foreseeable future.
Or…
It could induce Nasrallah to do whatever it takes to goad Israel into war with Lebanon before Syria can gravitate toward the Saudis and the national Lebanese party of Hariri. As reported in the prior post, Israeli is on the brink of war with Lebanon already. It would take just a little push. Defense Minister Barak has said plainly, “If Hizballah strikes, we hit Lebanon.”
Or the Saudis will tell the Syrians they will join with them and Iran in the great struggle against the West, and it’s a whole new ballgame. I admit that is a far fetched idea. But anything seems possible during this grand alignment of Middle East luminaries.
Friday, the conference begins.
Sunday, Nasrallah is scheduled to give a major speech.
Sunday is the first of August.
The last month before the Bushehr reactor in Iran goes on line, and Iran becomes the Middle East’s second nuclear state.
If Israel, the first nuclear state, allows it.
