Drumbeats of War - Iran Nuclear in 2010 - US Calls for Negotiations
Israeli sources are reporting a high ranking member of the US intelligence community saying today that the newest CIA forecast for Iran’s capability of testing a nuclear device is… before the end of 2010.
Iran denies everything. And most US mainstream news is focusing on the information that Shahram Amiri, the confusing person claiming to be an Iranian nuclear scientist, has been giving the CIA for the past year about the Iranian nuclear program. In his version, Iran has only peaceful designs for nuclear power generation, and is far from being capable of producing a nuclear weapon.
The Israeli sources, known to have strong Mossad connections, say that both Israeli and United States intelligence communities are now thinking Amiri is a double agent who has laid a false trail of red herrings for the past year. Apparently what he is saying behind closed doors is raising more suspicion than giving comfort about the Iranian nuclear program.
On the basis of what they now believe to be true (and it is not clear what exactly has changed their minds) the possibility of Iran conducting an underground test of a nuclear device has been moved forward to within the next five months.
If Iran actually does want The Bomb.
Iran does want to be nuclear capable. No doubt of that. The Iranian Parliament passed legislation requiring Iran to continue enriching uranium to 20%. That is the level at which further enrichment for a nuclear device is relatively quick and easy. It is also a level useful for nuclear power generation, and nuclear medicine. Whatever the true intent of the Iranian military might be, this legislation proves that it is truly the will of the Iranian people that Iran become a nuclear state. It is not just Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs. The opposition parties want it even more.
Whether or not Amiri was sent to deceive the West about Iran’s nuclear program, it is certainly true that the Israelis and perhaps the United States are looking very closely at a greatly accelerated timeframe for Iran going nuclear.
No doubt that will affect the deliberations about a preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Is the following event related?
According to an official Iranian news source on Sunday, the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations said they were “ready to hold negotiations with Iran.” The offer came through the Swiss Ambassador to Iran, Livia Leu Agosti, ” whose embassy represents US interests in Iran.”
The Iranians showed little interest. Head of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, told a widely distributed Middle East new organization that since the US “imposed unilateral sanctions beyond [the UN Security Council] Resolution, how can it expect [us] to negotiate?” And “… they will only see change, after changing their own approaches first.”
Unraveled from diplomatic-speak, what the Iranians are saying to us is, “Your sanctions have failed, Russia has stepped in to help us, and we don’t like you very much.”
Israeli sources are confirming this Iranian version of the offer. There is no word I can see from the US side, which is to be expected since the offer was flatly refused. Of course it is also possible there was no such offer. But I think that unlikely.
Personally, I think the Iranians should grab with both hands any offer to negotiate. A great tsunami of Western military might is approaching Iranian shores. Like a tsunami wave, it is not very visible on the surface as it travels toward landfall. But the warning signs are there. Worldly wisdom dictates a move to higher ground.
The catch is, maybe the Iranians believe they are already on higher ground.
July 19th, 2010 at 10:05 pm
You reference Amiri and what he is saying in his meetings behind
closed doors. How would Israel know what is said there? Did I miss
something?
You also mention a great tsunami of Western military might heading
their way. Have you talked about that build-up in previous posts?
July 20th, 2010 at 2:55 am
Nikki, there is close cooperation between the Israeli and US intelligence communities. Much information is shared, both officially and unofficially… along with a certain amount of ’salted’ information that is meant to guide the other side toward certain conclusions. It is the Israeli agenda to establish the date that Iran might be able to test a nuke as near as possible. There are hawks in the US who want that also. It would be good to take the new CIA timetable with a grain of salt.
Yes, there are several previous posts that talk about the buildup of Western power. Three that tell much of the story are:
Drumbeats of War - 3rd Carrier Off Iran
Drumbeats of War - Iran On War Alert
Drumbeats of War - Obama Sends Carriers to Gulf