Drumbeats of War - Eritrea
There are such odd rumblings in the basements and long empty corridors of the internet, coming from a room rarely visited, the door marked Eritrea in disappearing ink.
Who even knows where Eritrea is?
The Iranians do.
Put on a pot of coffee and slip into your storm gear. The waters get deep and rough, and it will be a while before we make landfall. And there are Pirates. Ready?
Currently, the only reprobate nations on our official list of State Sponsors of Terrorism are Cuba, which holds the distinction of being first and longest on the list… Sudan, which I’ll ignore for the moment because it’s complicated… and of course the prima donnas in the opera of fear… Iran and Syria.
Ed Royce, Republican Representative of California’s 40th District for the past seven years, and Representative of the 39th District for the ten years preceding, serves on the Foreign Affairs Committee. He was previously chairman of the Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation.
Ed wants to add Eritra to the list.
Congress may listen to him. But perhaps not exactly for the reason he offers. Which is that Eritrea may be supporting the Somali insurgents that the mainstream media portray as the Pirates of the African Coast, taking ships hostage and demanding ransom.
Now, as you know, on one side of Saudi Arabia is the Persian Gulf and its narrow bottleneck, the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large percentage of the world’s oil must pass on its way to the Arabian Sea and onward toward America and other ports of call.
The other side is the Red Sea.
Like the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea is landlocked at its northern end, with a single bottleneck passage at its southern exit to the Arabian Sea.
There is no doubt Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz.
Eritrea hugs the western shore of the Red Sea, including the bottleneck at the south end, the Bab el Mandeb Strait, which is only 17 miles wide.
Just as enticing, from a strategic point of view, the landlocked north end of the Red Sea is breached by the critical waterway of the Middle East, the Suez Canal, though which an extraordinary number of warships have recently passed in transit to the Arabian Sea.
Iran has entered into a formal partnership with Eritrea to help upgrade their gasoline refining capacity. They will work together to restart a Russian-built oil refinery that was shuttered for economic reasons in 1997. That is mainstream news. I see the picture of Iranian President Ahmadinejad shaking hands with Eritrean President Afewerki, sometimes called Dictator Afewerki, or much worse, by his opposition, who have little access to the state-controlled media of Eritrea.
But in the shadows, there are unconfirmed reports, hints and allegations wafting around the shores of Eritrea like supernatural fog from a Pirate movie. Are they true? Don’t know, but they have a certain ring of credibility about them.
They center on the prime Eritrean port of Assab, just a few miles from Bab el Mandeb, where that old refinery has been corroding in the African sun and saltwater spray of the Red Sea. The rumors are that Iran is turning Eritrea into a fortress. There are wild speculations about Iranian diesel submarines lying in wait on the shallow underwater shelfs of the Red Sea. And of course whispers about Iranian military personnel, the usual missiles, and other weapons…
… and small boats like those the Iranians have deployed in large numbers in the Strait of Hormuz, whose ’swarm’ tactics are thought by our Chiefs of Staff to be effective enough to close that oil-filled bottleneck.
So. Are the Iranians thinking of closing not only the Strait of Hormuz, but the other sea lane around Saudi Arabia and the other sheikdoms of oil-rich sands, if there is a great sea battle in the Middle East?
No wonder the West has such a mighty array of military power poised on the waters of the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.
For those of you who have been brave enough to read to this far, I offer the following for your consideration.
The main fount of early intelligence news from Israel believes that President Obama has concluded he has no option but to enforce the US sanctions against Iran, and will start interdicting Iranian shipping.
Iran has promised to retaliate in kind.
That will light the fuse to the powderkeg.
If the Israelis are right about Obama’s decision, the only question is… when.
Their answer is… soon.
July 23rd, 2010 at 3:23 am
Voice of America:
Analysts say Eritrea is Not Supporting al-Shabab
21 July 2010-The International Crisis Group has dismissed alleged links between Eritrea and Somali insurgent group al-Shabab following calls from an United States lawmaker to designate the country a state sponsor of terrorism.
In a letter sent Tuesday, U.S. Congressman Ed Royce advised Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to add Eritrea to the country’s list of State Sponsors of Terrorism.
The letter was sent following a July 11 terrorist attack in Kampala, Uganda that killed at least 76 people, including one American. Somali Islamist group al-Shabab has claimed responsibility for the bombings.
The group, which is loosely affiliated with al-Qaida, explained the attack was in retaliation for Ugandan Peacekeeping troops in Somalia supporting the U.N.-backed government.
Royce, the lead Republican on the Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade Subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives, said Eritrea’s support of al-Shabab was “well documented,” and urged Secretary Clinton to take action before the group begins targeting the United States.
There is evidence Eritrea has provided support to Somali insurgents in the past, but the Director of the International Crisis Group in Nairobi, E.J. Hogendoorn, says that support was aimed at groups fighting Ethiopian forces. Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1991 after a 30-year civil war and the two nations have maintained a tense peace since.
According to Hogendoorn, that support was not aimed at terrorism or given to al-Shabab fighters.
“There is very little evidence to suggest that Eritrea has, or is currently, supporting al-Shabab. In the past Eritrea has supported certain insurgencies in Somalia in an effort to continue its proxy war with Ethiopia. The evidence we have seen so far suggests that support for Hizbul Islam, rather than al-Shabab. While we are concerned about the activities of Hizbul Islam, there is no evidence to suggest that Hizbul Islam supports terrorist acts against neighboring states,” said Hogendoorn/
Hizbul Islam, like al-Shabab, is battling Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government to create an Islamic State on the Horn of Africa. But Hizbul Islam controls relatively little territory in Somalia and is considered a much less significant threat than the al-Shabab forces.
And, according to Hogendoorn, evidence suggests that Eritrea withdrew its support of the group in 2009.
While al-Shabab has made threats against the United States in the past, the analyst also told VOA the group posed a much greater threat to the security and stability of east Africa than to the interests of the United States.
Congressman Royce previously voiced concern about Eritrea’s terrorist connections in 2009. The representative introduced an amendment affirming that the country’s support of Somali insurgents posed a direct threat to the U.S., which was voted down in the U.S. Congress.
If added, Eritrea would be subject to a variety of sanctions including diplomatic isolation, economic restrictions and weapons embargoes. The country would become the fifth state to receive the designation, joining Cuba, Iran, Sudan and Syria on the list.(VOA)
July 23rd, 2010 at 3:26 am
http://www.somaliweyn.org/pages/news/Oct_09/31Oct18.html
Somalia: Al-Shabab says they will attack Asmara, Eritrea
Mogadishu Saturday 31 October 2009 SMC
Al-Shabab an Islamist faction in Somalia which America say is Al-Qaida proxy in Somalia has disclosed that they will sooner or later attack Asmara the capital of Eritrea.
They said Eritrea is a country which is against the interest of the Muslim people, and has included it the list of the countries which they have sent their threat massages.
In their statement they also said that Eritrea is not a friend and has no relationship with the Muslim countries in the world wide and in this case they will attack her.
“Somalia consists of 18 provinces and 10 out of the 18 are in our hands and soon we shall bring the others into our hands, these regions we are talking about include the semi-autonomous region of Puntland and the breakaway state of Somaliland” said Sheikh Suldan Mohammed Aalla Mohammed addressing a huge crowd in the town Marka in the lower shabelle region in southern Somalia.
Apart from Eritrea the other countries they said that they will attack include Djibouti, Ethiopia, Sudan, Kenya, Ghana and Israel.
Al-Shabab has earlier threatened to attack the capital cities of Uganda and Burundi, and after their declaration of the attacks on these two cities the government of Uganda has putted extra oppressions on the Somalis in Kampala the capital of Uganda.
July 23rd, 2010 at 3:29 am
United Nations Security Council accused Ethiopia and Uganda for Arming the Al Shabab in Somalia
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL24158241._CH_.2400
May 24 (Reuters) - The United Nations says the Horn of Africa nation is awash with weapons despite a 1992 weapon ban that followed the collapse of the central government a year before. Somalia has been engulfed in civil conflict ever since.
Dumisani Kumalo, chairman of the U.N. Security Council’s Somalia sanctions committee and the South African envoy to the body, accuses “elements” of an AU peacekeeping force in Somalia and Ethiopian and Somali government troops of arms trafficking.
Boats, planes and donkeys mainly transport weapons and military hardware to Somalia’s numerous arms markets.
The South African envoy said 80 percent of ammunition on sale in Somali markets come from Ethiopian and Somali troops.
July 23rd, 2010 at 3:31 am
Ethiopia is supporting terrorist groups in Somalia
Ethiopians, Pakistanis Arrested For Uganda Bomb Attacks
http://www.rttnews.com/Content/GeneralNews.aspx?Id=1361449&SM=1
(RTTNews) - Ugandan police made more arrests in connection with the weekend twin bomb attacks that killed 76 people.
Kale Kayihura, the Inspector General of Uganda, told reporters on Friday that 17 suspects, including six foreigners, had been arrested for questioning as they have ties with al-Qaeda-linked Somali radical al-Shabaab militia.
They include four Ethiopians and two Pakistani Sheikhs.
The Twin bomb attacks targeting football fans watching the World Cup final in the Ugandan capital Kampala on Sunday killed 76 people and injured dozens of others.
The country is observing a week-long mourning.
Al-Shabaab militia in Somalia claimed responsibility for carrying out the attacks, as Ugandan troops are part of the African Union military Mission in Somalia (Amisom) fighting the Islamist insurgents.
A three-member team of FBI experts is in Uganda to assist investigation into the bomb attacks.
by RTT Staff Writer
July 23rd, 2010 at 11:16 am
what a load of crap!
Your writing about rumours that have been proved to be false.
Read this article, from Gulf News, they went to Eritrea to verify the false claims.
Here’s the link - http://gulfnews.com/news/region/eritrea/eritrea-in-pursuit-of-the-truth-1.615302
July 23rd, 2010 at 4:04 pm
How odd. More comments on Eritrea than almost any other post. I was thinking few people would read it. Does it hit some sort of nerve?
I’ve posted responses verbatim. I figure that gives you the opportunity to try sort out this issue for yourself. As I noted in the post itself, there is a lot of conjecture and rumor surrounding Eritrea. I try to clearly delineate foggy new reports from what seems to be more solid.
The Camus response above references a Gulf News article. I read it. It includes this paragraph:
—
Gulf News did not pay a visit to Assab port, for which prior permission is essential. Gulf News had not sought permission from the Eritrean authorities for the visit to the controversial port. This correspondent regretted failing to seek permission to visit this important Eritrean port.
—
So although they did get the grand tour of what is meant to be seen, I think it raises more questions than answers them.
But something is happening, and it is far from clear exactly what. That is always of interest.