Drumbeats of War - Ships on the Horizon
On May 20, the post on this blog Obama Sends Carriers to Gulf spoke of the Carrier Strike Group headed by the USS Harry S Truman being sent to the Persian Gulf. The first time the Obama administration put two such groups on line in the Middle East. This was not widely reported (to say the least) although I’m certain that any nation opposed to the United States had full knowledge of such a move.
A carrier group consists of 20-30 or more ships and subs. It is a big blip on anyone’s radar or satellite sensors. It is often used as a warning to other nations, simply because it is such a big, visible move. But I have to admit, I wondered if it was true. Apparently it was. Today, Israeli sources report the Truman group, which was on it’s way to the Persian Gulf, to instead support the US Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean.
The reason is, of course, Gaza. Things continue to heat up there. At least two Iranian ships are headed toward the blockade, and it is not clear how many more, if any, from what other countries, if any.
Israel: Foreign Minister Lieberman has told the press that the ships approaching Gaza are sent by ‘enemies with hostile intent’, and therefore should not be treated as international aid ships. He does not spell it out, but it is clear he thinks they should not be, and will not be, allowed to pass unhindered. This echos recent statements by Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Barak… previous to this weeks meek folding of hands and quiet acquiescence about making the changes in the Gaza blockade demanded by the international community, essentially rendering it useless to Israel.
The Israeli cabinet, pondering the changes in the blockade (see Gaza Blockade Dismantled from Within) has taken a break from their deliberations without approving the proposed changes. Clearly not a slam dunk. Are they waiting for events to render the decision moot?
Iran: Ali Larijani, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, who may be in Gaza on the Israeli border on Saturday (see Gaza in the Spotlight, Iran in the Limelight) says if ships of any nation transiting to Gaza are interfered with in any way, Iran will ‘retaliate’ upon shipping in both the Mediterranean and the Gulf, which surely includes the Strait of Hormuz. Our Joint Chiefs issued papers some time ago stipulating that Iran can close the Strait for at least several weeks, even with maximum US effort to reopen it. Possibly for months, or longer. It is the crux of the world’s oil supply system, and Iran knows it.
On the horizon: the same sources that talked about the Truman strike group… I’m going to digress for a moment: carrier groups used to be called Battle Groups, but a few years ago the name was changed to Strike Groups, in line with the new American policy of ‘nation building’… those same sources said the Obama administration was planning to send two or even three additional strike groups to the Middle East by end of July, early August.
According to mainstream media outlets, large numbers of US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq will soon have little to do. The major offensive in Afghanistan was recently called off. And despite recent events in Iraq, it seems we are headed outta there. Is there a use planned for them somewhere else? Somewhere close? Perhaps between Iraq and Afghanistan?
Are the forces arrayed against Israel going to try beating the Israel/US alliance to the punch by bringing things to a head earlier than that? It would not surprise me.
