The same Israeli source that predicted the sending the USS Harry S Truman Carrier Strike Group toward Iran (and was correct) now reports another carrier strike group, headed by the USS Nassau, has joined the pack.

Nassau came into the region through the waters between Yemen and Somalia, and the group’s presence was reportedly responsible for Iran turning back the ‘aid’ ship heading for Gaza. Under the new UN sanctions, the US ships would have had a covering for boarding the ship at sea.

This makes three carrier strike groups near Iran. The Obama administration has never had (more…)

According to Israel’s Ynetnews, Iran has announced that Iran will not send a ship to the Gaza blockade. Official Iranian news is sending mixed messages about aid to Gaza, with no clear announcement I can see. If I had to guess, and in this case I do, I would guess the Iranians have changed their mind about sending a ship to break the blockade. Although that is not certain.

That leaves one ship, the Julia, for whom Lebanon has the responsibility of having sent from their shores.

If I had to guess, etc., I would guess that ship will not hit the blockade either.

The only game-changer would be if the self-proclaimed activists on the ship decide to take life in hand, ignore whatever pleas there might be from whatever countries, and go for it on their own. That’s possible. But I think unlikely.

So unless there is a black swan event, Gaza may have quieted down for the moment.

The state of war alert in northern Iran is another story. And you will find that story in the post Iran On War Alert.

Redeux and reduction of previous post.

Despite the official efforts of many countries, there are as of this writing still two ships at sea that intend to run the Gaza blockade. One ship, the Julia, that originally set out from Lebanon, and one from Iran. (more…)

Despite the title, this is indeed an alert. Just bear with me for a moment.

In Stanley Kubrick’s 1964 masterpiece, Dr. Strangelove, a delusional air force general sends his bombers past their fail safe point into Russia, intent on giving the United States an opportunity to finish evil Russia once and for all. Marginally more sane, the President through a stroke of luck is able to issue recall orders to the bomber wing.

Except for one B-52. Damaged by a Soviet missile and flying low without a recall radio, it manages to bomb its target. That sets off a new Soviet “doomsday device” which is large enough to kill all life on the surface of the earth. The movie ends with a small portion of humanity heading for a few underground complexes, where they plan to emerge in about a century for the next round of war.

Two ships are still bound for Gaza. (more…)

No hostilities have actually occurred. I want to be clear about that.

However it is an unusual move for Iran. They have gone on war alert several times in the past, but it is the first time they have named the exact location of the ‘threat’ and backed up their alert with a large body of men and equipment.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Brigadier General Mehdi Moini announced Tuesday that “The Mobilization is due to the presence of American and Israeli forces on the western border…. (more…)

There is so much going on, going off, going nowhere… but there is definitely something going somewhere.

Saturday night, it looked like Gaza would draw the Middle East into war early this week. Then the screws were tightened in various places, and suddenly the ships going to Gaza aren’t… probably. Syria said don’t come here first, because that would start a war with Israel. Lebanon appears to have stood down their ships for the same reason. Turkey the same, with their friends in Cyprus suddenly not open to hosting any more ships to Gaza. And the ships from Iran… uh, good question. But no one seems to have a good answer. They seem to have evaporated in the gossamer dew of the morning. But all this may change again as quickly as a thunderstorm on a summer afternoon.

And what of the USS Harry S Truman Strike Group’s front line aircraft carrier and supporting ships? (more…)

Why was this necessary: on Thursday Israel local time, Israeli Defense Minister Barak had US Middle East envoy George Mitchell pass along a message to Lebanon that if their ships (plural) left a Lebanese port headed toward the Gaza blockade, there would be ‘consequences’. I’ve seen nothing about any Lebanese ships preparing to sail for Gaza. Apparently, DM Barak has deeper insight into Lebanese naval operations, as would be expected. Or he is brewing a tempest in a teapot, baiting the other side to make a move.

In any event, this goes beyond warning everyone that ships trying to run the blockade will be stopped. The act of sending ships is now forbidden to Lebanon. This dovetails with the Israeli pronouncement that certain Turkish ships are at risk even in their home ports.

Batten down the hatches, people. Things are getting tense.

Israel made a strangely low-key, quiet, almost silent announcement a few hours ago in an Israeli local TV station news bulletin. The news was that Israel now considers an important Turkish political party a terrorist organization. That party supports Prime Minister Erdogan’s political structure. Not widely reported worldwide, though it deserves to be, it is having the effect of a depth charge in the crucible that is the Middle East.

The IHH (Insani Yardim Vakfi) is now subject to national military action, as well as covert action by Israeli Mossad. It’s leaders are open to ‘retaliation’ because they promote ‘violence against Israel and its interests’, primarily the flotillas they have sent to run the Gaza blockade (the one that made the news was actually at least the fourth such attempt). This designation allows the IDF to prosecute any Turkish shipping sponsored by the IHH, on the high seas and even while anchored at their home port. Or in Cyprus.

In return, Turkey has announced their desire for an international boycott of Israel. They have also announced unilateral sanctions against Israel which include the immediate revocation of permission for Israeli warplanes to use Turkish airspace, and severing the longstanding military ties between the Turkish and Israeli military and intelligence establishments. This and a litany of other punishments was ostensibly spurred by Israel’s mishandling of the Gaza flotilla and the deaths that resulted from the action, as well as the lack of apology by Israel and the refusal to submit to an international inquiry on the incident.

Very important: Lebanese Hizballah leader Nasrallah has announced his plans to travel to Turkey immediately. Nasrallah is a prime target for drone munitions from at least two countries, so his movements are generally very secret. That this news is in the open before his departure from his hidden position in Lebanon means that the visit is of a most consequential nature. He has constantly called for the destruction of the Zionist state of Israel, perhaps the most definite and consistent voice in the Middle East for such a desire.

More. (more…)

If a person is hungry, who in their right mind would trade their food for a piece of metal. Not me. I wonder if gold will buy food if things go really south.

Guns. Most people think that having guns to defend their supplies and their families is a good idea. There are reasons I can understand for that. But remember that unless you are very, very good at killing, it is a hard thing to do when it comes down to it. And a bluff threat will not suffice. More, unless you are good at it, the ‘bad guys’ tend to be better at it. Think of the numerous times a police officer has been shot with their own gun. And then there are numbers. If you are greatly outnumbered, it would take an exceptional person to survive. Perhaps you are one of those. Then I leave it up to your conscience.

Wilderness first aid. If things go really south, there will be few things more valuable than a person who knows how to treat injuries. Even the hardest ass bad guy tends to look for help when they are seriously injured. If you have some knowledge of how to deal with, say, a stab or a gunshot wound, I believe that in many cases you have something more valuable than food. And a reason for people to keep you alive. (more…)

On May 20, the post on this blog Obama Sends Carriers to Gulf spoke of the Carrier Strike Group headed by the USS Harry S Truman being sent to the Persian Gulf. The first time the Obama administration put two such groups on line in the Middle East. This was not widely reported (to say the least) although I’m certain that any nation opposed to the United States had full knowledge of such a move.

A carrier group consists of 20-30 or more ships and subs. It is a big blip on anyone’s radar or satellite sensors. It is often used as a warning to other nations, simply because it is such a big, visible move. But I have to admit, I wondered if it was true. Apparently it was. Today, Israeli sources report the Truman group, which was on it’s way to the Persian Gulf, to instead support the US Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean.

The reason is, of course, Gaza. Things continue to heat up there. (more…)