Drumbeats of War - So Much More
Last time I said there were many more things happening, and since then events have added to the backlog. I’ll do another list thing.
1. Although Arab League ministers have green lighted Abbas’ indirect talks with Israel via the US, Syria and Lebanon voted against the talks even taking place. That means whatever comes out of the talks, it will almost surely have no effect on the war plans between Israel and her neighbors to the north. It might even exacerbate them and move the timeframe up a notch.
2. On top of that, Iran and Syria have initialed an economic agreement to bolster the military agreements they already have in place. If the Obama administration ever seriously thought we could pry those two nations apart with some piddling economic carrots, they were sadly mistaken. This new economic block has put out feelers to Turkey and Iraq to join. I’ll let that soak in for a second or two …..
Turkey, who still leases to us the major air transit facilities used by the US for supplies into Iraq, Afghanistan, etc. Where, as far as anyone outside the military command knows, there are still perhaps 60ish nukes stored.
And Iraq, where so many American lives have been spent.
It gives a person something to think about.
3. The US denied visas to a number of delegates to the UN from… you guessed it, Iran. That was in preparation for the conference next week on the nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, which Iran has much to say about and apparently to which it wants to propose reforms. I’m guessing they will probably be talking to the issue of Israel having a few hundred ‘unregistered’ nukes. Perhaps only incidentally, the conference is concurrent with the timeframe in which the UN is scheduled to talk about the ‘harsh’ sanctions for Iran… the sanctions upon which peace in the Middle East is seen to hang, at least by Israel and the Obama administration.
Predictably, Iranian President Ahmadinejad lodged a protest, accusing the US of holding the UN ‘hostage’. Not an auspicious start to the negotiations. Just now, the Obama administration backed down and issued the visas after all.
I think one one should do something, or don’t do something. Not tick people off and then waffle. A sure sign of weakness… of character, of will, of moral fortitude.
4. Wierd-o-meter rating about a 9.8:
President Obama has non-issued a Presidential Policy Directive (PPD) on Iran. That is, people know he’s done it, but the contents are closely held by the US government. In other words, secret. It is said that he has decided to prevent Iran’s ‘nuclearization’… but does not say how he intends to do it. I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.
Frankly, with the kaleidoscope glasses worn by the Obama administration, they could be seeing the sanctions as likely to take care of everything. Or just the opposite. Visions of mushroom clouds. I really don’t know. But why a secret directive unless the contents are extremely volatile? And put that together with the Peak Oil statement from the Joint Chiefs of Staff I mentioned in the previous post.
5. An Israeli source, probably Mossad, says the United States’ bases around the Indian Ocean, which borders and perhaps includes the Persian Gulf, are ‘gearing up for a showdown’ with Iran. And Iran is preparing to fight a war with Israel/US using their allies Syria, and Hizballah in Lebanon. True? Not true? Misinformation? An early warning? Your guess is as good as mine.
The intelligence establishment of Israel certainly has an agenda. And that agenda does not always match the Israeli government’s agenda. What is clear is that they believe Israel must tale care of Iran’s nuclear facilities, and soon, or it will be too late. True or not, that is certainly how they feel. I believe the Israeli military has mixed feelings, as all good soldiers must, about the specter of war that shimmers on the horizon. Some may believe it is necessary, but looking at the immense amount of firepower, manpower, training and materials amassed by the opposing forces must give them sober pause.
6. and last, very important actually, but kind of funny, in a fey way (not to be confused with Fay Wray of King Kong fame… hey, got to lighten up sometimes with all this dark stuff going on.)
On April 23 I wrote, regarding the activity and noise surrounding the possibility of SCUD missiles coming into Lebanon from Syria:
Scud missile tubes are about 30 feet long, give or take, depending on the type. It is said they are not easily shipped in pieces.
But the bulk of the scud components and launch equipment apparently is easily broken down into their constituent assemblies. And containers for tractor trailers can exceed 50 feet in length. Unless we have technology to look into those containers from space or an UAV, it seems to me that saying we don’t see them does not mean they certainly are not there.
The same week, unbeknownst to me at the time, the Russian arms manufacturer Novator debuted at the Defense Services Asia exhibition in Malaysia a new concept in missile ground transportation and launching platform called in Western terminology the ‘Club-K’, for some indecipherable reason.
It is an ordinary looking tractor trailer container.
With something terribly uncommon inside. Cruise missiles.
Opaque to radar until activated, the container can be carried by a standard truck, put on a ship’s deck, or hidden alongside a hundred normal containers on a container ship, or in someone’s back yard, or… anywhere. And it is said by Western military experts to be virtually undetectable by UAVs or satellites, or, apparently, the naked eye.
It is a game changer, a world military game changer.
Cheap at just $15 million, the roof raises at the push of a button to reveal four highest-technology cruise missiles. Not just scuds. Super accurate cruise missiles, with an estimated range of 200-250 miles, that can destroy a modern aircraft carrier. Or hit US and Israeli military assets in the Middle East before they can react to the attack. Launch is also push-button simple. A child could do it. In this world, the way it is, perhaps one will.
Novator manufacturers the world’s highest-end missile interceptors, including the S-300, which Iran has purchased, but Russia refuses to release to them. Possibly because it is valid against Russian aircraft as well as US aircraft.
But the good ol’ Club-K is on the open market, ready to roll for anyone with enough cash to plunk down on the barrelhead.
Iran and Venezuela in particular were seen to show acute interest when it was unveiled at the show in Malaysia.
