Drumbeats of War - Diplomacy is Dead
The United States apparently fired a nuclear-capable Trident in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia last week. The US both denies and confirms, in conflicting reports. The most ‘official’ source denies. Other sources confirm. My guess is we did it. But it really doesn’t matter if we did or not. The official news agency of Iran is deathly quiet about the subject. Even if a Trident did not launch, the Iranians got the ‘message’. And what message is that?
Mainstream US media reports that Defense Secretary Gates has told the Saudis that diplomacy with Iran has failed. So we are asking the Saudis to back ‘biting’ sanctions against Iran. The Chinese want to talk about sanctions, which seems a positive step forward, but that can also mean they are simply stalling, in the same way Iran has always stalled on the nuclear issue. It’s effective. Given enough time, a problem goes away. Replaced by a reality. In this case, a nuclear Iran. Sanctions seem unlikely at this point in time.
There is supposed to be a back-door channel that the US has tried to open with Iran’s Republican Guard. The idea is that by appealing to their capitalistic instincts, an accommodation with the West can be secured. We did force them to form new capital companies to get around banking sanctions we put in place when we declared them a terrorist organization. Maybe that was step one in this plan, and this is step two. I suppose it had a chance of working. But what Gates told the Saudis may mean that we have determined that it did not work. There are reports the Guard simply ignored the offer.
If that channel has been abandoned, I think we’re pretty much out of non-military options. And Israel will probably come to that conclusion earlier than the United States.
