The Iran War That No One Wants to Start
(Repost — Odd, part of this is missing. Either there was a mistake on this end, which is most likely, or… well, anyway, I will try to recreate it best I can. This is a repost March 6)
I was saying that the Obama Administration was backing down from confronting Iran, and Israel’s Netanyahu Administration seemed to be doing the same, and that Iran was probably not going to start a war, although they have been putting huge amounts of the
(old post continues here)
machinery of war into production and on their front lines. But so has everyone else, and I do mean everyone, including Saudi Arabia.
So, on the surface, it seems that the war that almost was… isn’t going to happen.
But.
There are three factors that could tip the scales at any moment.
1. Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah — Hizballah’s charismatic leader, the strongman of Lebanon. Of all the figures of the Middle East, he stands out as a man who keeps his word. Unfortunately, one of his promises is to end the current government of Israel. I can’t tell if he is purely anti-Zionist (anti Israeli government) or partially or wholly anti-Jewish.
But the bottom line is that he will not rest until war… in his view, the final war… comes against Israel. His vision will not be swept away by promises of peace, or anything else.
He is currently on a leash held by Syria, and by extension, Iran. But he is capable of breaking that leash if he thinks his patrons have abandoned the cause.
2. The United States Congress — As mentioned previously in these posts, we have two bills, one passed by the House, one by the Senate, which simply need consolidation to pass. The result of that consolidated bill, if it ever does get out of committee, is most likely a naval blockade of Iran, which will likely result in war.
Do they have the steel cojones to force the President’s hand? Will he sign the bill? They have enough cosponsors to override a veto. Will congress, for once, be the one to declare a war?
They do not seem capable of it. But maybe those who are most timid are the ones who suddenly make a bold move of desperation. Usually with tragic consequences.
3. The Unexpected Event — The Middle East is armed to the teeth, with more and more armaments being added daily. Hizballah has somewhere between 40,000 and 60,000 missiles, small and large, some of which are very sophisticated, pointed at Israel. There are warships of the nations of the world passing each other daily in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. There are commanders with more firepower at their disposal than whole armies during WW II.
It is inherently dangerous having that much military might in such close proximity.
4. Four? I thought you said Three — What is apparent in the Middle East is rarely the truth, and never the whole truth. Diplomacy, intrigue and a history of reciprocal hate makes what people say less than totally trustworthy. Beneath words of peace and accommodation may lie deception that is thought to be necessary for making a preemptive first strike successful. And real news is really hard to get these days. We have to extrapolate from shifting shadows.
The shadows will give way soon enough to whatever reality is coming our way, be it peace with a nuclear Iran, or war with… everyone.
I like having a stock of supplies, just in case. They will not last forever, but may help us over a sudden disruption. Certainly, I feel I can rest more easily, having prepared to some extent.
It’s a good feeling.
