Drumbeats of War - The Dog That Didn’t Bark
In the Sherlock Holmes adventure titled Silver Blade, Holmes remarked that a very curious thing had happened the night that Silver Blade, the racehorse, was stolen. Watson said he had noticed nothing unusual. Not even the dog barked. And Holmes said, ah, that is what was unusual. The dog did not bark.
Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu has not bowed to US President Obama’s ultimatums, delivered in barked commands by Mrs. Clinton over the phone to Netanyahu on Friday. The central demand was to stop building 1,600 homes in Jerusalem’s Jewish neighborhood of Ramat Shlomo. Or else. End of conversation.
So far, the answer is not ‘no. Neither is it ‘yes’.
The closest thing to an answer so far is what Foreign Minister Lieberman, a member of Netanyahu’s inner cabinet said to the press… without contradiction from Netanyahu. “The demand to forbid Jews to buy or build in east Jerusalem is simply unreasonable.” He also said that if Israel disallowed Arabs from buying or building in West Jerusalem, it would be “characterized as apartheid”.
It may be politically impossible for Netanyahu to back down. Israelis see Jerusalem as their ‘eternal capital’. Every Israeli administration has built in Jerusalem since 1967. The neighborhood in question is just 5 minutes from Netanyahu’s office.
And Palestinian factions have jumped on the fracture in US-Israel relations to demand more preconditions for peace talks
However, Israel’s Channel 2 News said today that the Obama administration had told Netanyahu that until the answer was ‘yes’, he would not be allowed to meet any high level US officials when he goes to Washington DC next week to speak at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) conference. He had been scheduled to get together with both US VP Biden and Clinton during his visit. Btw, Clinton is also scheduled to speak at that conference.
Netanyahu spoke with Biden Tuesday night. The two were supposed to be very close before this crisis. No one is saying what either said.
US Middle East envoy George Mitchell, charged with jumpstarting the peace talks, cancelled his scheduled visit to Israel yesterday. Defense Minister Barak has been talking with him about possible solutions. No doubt so he can secure the arms he thinks are necessary for Israel in the soon-to-come war (see Drumbeats of War - The Mirrors Shatter, two posts ago).
Meanwhile, the Palestinian factor most counted upon by the Obama administration for the peace talks, Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah organization, has suffered a very major setback. Fatah in Lebanon lost 40 percent of its fighting strength in one day. Colonel Maqdah, the commander took men, arms and the most capable officers over to Hisballah’s side. Maqdah is rumored to have been involved in at least one rocket attack on Israel from Lebanon.
If you do not think this is a good time to start being prepared… please… tell me why not.
Btw, the groom tried to slice Silver Blade’s tendon so that he would lose the big race. The horse kicked and killed him. Then ran off to the competitor’s stables, where they disguised him until Holmes figured everything out, and Silver Blade won the race.
The dog did not bark, because there was no intruder, only the groom and his people.
I’ll leave the analogy to you.
