Iran’s Thursday Surprise
Two interesting statements, containing information that the major media felt was unnecessary for the public to know about, were made on February 8. One was by our Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, and one by Iran’s spiritual ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
I’ll start with the second one first. The Iranian ruler said to an audience that included the commanders of the Iranian Air Force, “The Iranian nation with its unity and God’s grace will punch the arrogance [of Western powers] on the 22nd of Bahman (Thursday, Feb 11, or the night of the 10th in the US) in a way that will leave them stunned!”
Speculation is wild and wooly about what he could be talking about. You may be reading this after the fact, and know whether it was Very Significant, or nothing of any importance. Pre-event guesses range from a political crackdown on demonstrators (why would that stun us?), to the possible unveiling of a new laser technology for upgrading their stores of nuclear material (which would be a game-changer), to a test of a nuclear device (which I doubt, but I suppose is possible).
A prime Iranian goal in this time period is to show the West that they are not a bunch of ragheads. Or if they are, it is because the turbans are there to conceal their large brain capacity. This is, after all, the nation that was once the center of power in the Persian Empire. We may have forgotten that, but they certainly have not They want to show us that they are smart (they had efficient, very green air conditioning centuries ago, and are still a nation with great engineering skill) and are not the pushovers our leaders apparently think they are.
A prudent nation might take that into account. But I think our leaders will see whatever the Iranians do as simply another reason we should take out their nuclear facilities. Perhaps that’s sensible. But if so, why do we allow Pakistan to have dozens of nukes? Talk about a loose cannon. They’ve already had one serious attempt by some crazy but very well trained people trying to get a portion of their arsenal to use against the West. And the Pakistanis, especially the military, really, really hate us. A lot.
The other piece of news you probably have not seen is what Secretary Gates said after a meeting with French president Sarkozy. Gates told reporters that he hoped “strong international sanctions on Iran will forestall the need for a military strike designed to end the country’s chances of developing a nuclear weapon.”
It’s the first time he has publicly stated that a military strike might be necessary. Previously, he spoke only of sanctions, and only implied the possibility of a military solution. It is a sea change in Administration policy. We are a step closer to the abyss.
I know, I’ve been saying we have been looking into the abyss for about three years now. But events of world-shattering importance can take a while to manifest.
On the other hand, the quick, nearly meaningless sanctions our President announced today against four Iranian Republican Guard companies is hardly earth shaking. The primary effect of the last round of sanctions was simply to propel the Iranians into making for themselves the things they were buying on the world market. Like state-of-the-art fighter aircraft. They are actually rolling off the assembly line now. They’re flying them now. Unmanned drones are next. And they can get most of the rest of what they want from Europe or the Chinese. And sometimes Russia.
On the economic scene, they created an oil market that is not dependent on the dollar. There’s now movement in the Arab nations (Iranians do not see themselves as Arabian) to do the same thing. Significantly, the last nation to abandon the oil dollar was Iraq, just before we decided they needed to be taught a stern lesson.
On the other side of the aisle, the Israelis are becoming increasingly shrill in their demand for something that actually works to prevent Iran from getting even one Bomb, which they feel is all it will take to wipe Israel off the map of the Middle East.
Are we deaf to the pleas from both sides, or are we simply prodding the Israelis into taking action by themselves? Either seems possible.
I’m sure curious about Thursday.
