Drumbeats of War - A Major Update
First an overview, then the news. Most recent at the bottom of this post.
OVERVIEW
The last three years have seen the ebb and flow of military preparations and minor actions in the Middle East, centered on Israel. Currently, the tide is surging ever higher.
There is great tension now between two heavily armed camps.
On one side there is Iran, Syria, Hizballah of Lebanon and Hamas of the Gaza strip.
On the other, there is Israel and the United States.
Shifting like the sands is Saudi Arabia, the leadership of which is closely tied to the US. They see themselves as the preeminent Arab power. So they are nearly hysterical over the power plays their archrival Iran has made to threaten their leadership. They are also hard pressed by an insurgency in Yemen which may spill over into their kingdom. If war starts, they will most likely be on… their own side. And align with whomever they see will promote their own interests the best. Their population would be very happy if they moved closer to the anti-US muslim world.
Turkey. Until the last year, Turkey was firmly in the US camp. Somewhere between 30 and 100 US nukes are still stored at the their airforce base at Incirlik, which is the major facility the US has used to get supplies by air into the Middle East wars. But Turkey’s new government has realigned from wanting to be in NATO, to wanting to be the ‘honest broker’ for peace between Israel and her neighbors. That is not working out very well. The pendulum keeps swinging anti-Israel, anti-US, partly because the Turkish population would like to be more involved in the muslim world, and partly, it must be said, because the US has not seen the need to treat Turkey as a close partner.
Egypt is in chaos and disruption. They are having a hard time just getting enough water to their people. They have built a fence to keep out the starving Gazans, at US request, but the antigovernment Muslim Brotherhood keeps gaining strength. If Israel and the US were to depend on Egypt in time of war, I think we would find them a ‘broken reed’ that would hurt more than help our side.
Then there are Bahrain, which hosts the US Fifth Fleet, Qatar, where we have a number of air and naval bases, and the UAE, whom we have promised to help build a nuclear power industry. At the latest meeting of Arab States, all shifted to a more aggressive stance against the US, and therefore Israel, in their policies. Saudi Arabia was pleased as punch to not only join the bandwagon, but make unusually inflammatory statements against the US.
And you have no doubt heard a lot lately about the row that is going on between Iran and the US/Europe/Russia/China over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. By all accounts, the diplomatic overtures of our President… however strong or weak you perceive them to have been… produced absolutely nothing.
NEWS
Two significant things are happening.
First, the US congress has passed legislation in both houses to strictly enforce a gasoline embargo on Iran. They are the Senate’s Dodd-Shelby Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability and Divestment Act, S. 2799; and the House’s Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act, H.R. 2194.
Those bills are awaiting a consolidation conference between the two houses of congress that will produce a single bill for our President to sign into law. This could move slowly… or be done in a day.
The bright red warning flag in this legislation is the requirement… not suggestion… for the President to make the embargo work. There is talk about canceling the insurance of gasoline tankers going to Iran, and then ‘quarantining’ them. But those are weasel words. It is said that over half the congressmen who passed this legislation understand that the only way to keep gasoline from reaching Iran is a naval blockade.
A naval blockade is not an act of war, according to International Maritime Law. But enforcing it … yes, that is an act of war. If the US stops and boards a gas tanker going to Iran, there is little doubt it will be seen as an act of war. Of course Iran can choose to just make some diplomatic noise about it. But Iran imports a large percentage of their gasoline because they do not have enough refining capacity. (They are, however, working at breakneck speed to increase that capacity.) A true embargo of gasoline would have very significant effects in Iran. Chances are, they would act in some way.
Second, President Ahmadinejad of Iran goes to the Syrian capitol of Damascus on Thursday to meet with Syrian President Assad to discuss in detail the mutual military support they have promised each other. Lebanon’s Hizballah and Gaza’s Hamas have already been included in pre-meeting phone calls by Ahmadinejad.
They are spelling out to each other, so that there can be no misunderstanding if things suddenly go south, what exactly the military responsibilities of each would be during a war with Israel.
The conference could go poorly, and end with disagreement and discord. Or they might get all their ducks in a row and become a great united front against Israel, the likes of which has not been seen since the 1960’s.
In the meantime, Israeli Defense Secretary Barak is in Washington today talking with our Defense Secretary Gates. This happens from time to time, so it does not have the same major significance of the Damascus meeting. But still, it is very interesting timing.
COMMENTARY
Everyone, on all sides, are saying, ‘no, there will be no war… we are not planning for war’.
But surely, they are not planning for peace.
Personally, I think we are reaching the end of our string in this deadly game of cat and mouse. Both sides will have to calm down and stand down if they truly want peace. Or events will inexorably lead to war, whether by design or from a minor affair or accident that will tip the scales.
I’ve been waiting and preparing for over three years for those scales to crash down upon us all. I could have to wait another three, or it may not even happen in my lifetime.
But I wouldn’t bet my life on it.
