War Clouds in the North
Today the Israeli Chief of Staff Lt. General ‘Gaby’ Ashkenazy denied seeing “war clouds in the north”. But he added that the Israel Defense Forces were keeping watch on the situation.
That mixed message caused the Army of Lebanon to place all their units on along the Israel Lebanon border on full alert status. They are said to be ready to “meet any Israeli aggression.”
Earlier, Lebanese media reported Israeli military movement along the border, including Chariot class tanks and Air Force jets flying over the Western Beqaa Valley in Southern Lebanon.
In response to this dangerous confusion, the United Nations forces along the border increased their alert status, monitoring the actions of both sides. This is both a bit comical and a bit tragic. In return for intelligence from Hizbolah about potentially violent action so that the UN troops can move out of the way beforehand, the UN apparently has a ‘gentlemen’s agreement to let Hizbolah do whatever they want in Lebanon. This is the UNFIL force that was tasked by UN Resolution 1701 almost three years ago to disarm Hizbolah and prevent military actions between the border and the Litani River.
Meanwhile, the Russians are modernizing and expanding their Soviet-era naval maintenance base near Tartus in Syria. Israel is concerned about the extremely sophisticated air-defense S-300PMU-2 and Iskander-E missile systems that the Russians will be installing, ostensibly to protect their naval facilities. But they could also serve as an anti-missile umbrella over Syria and Lebanon in case of war.
Which is very reminiscent of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton statement last week that the US would extend a “defense umbrella” over the Arab Gulf nations against an Iranian nuclear weapon.
However, Ms. Clinton told Iran today that “… if you’re pursuing nuclear weapons for the purpose of intimidating, or projecting your power, we are not going to let that happen. Your pursuit is futile. We believe as a matter of policy it is unacceptable for Iran to have nuclear weapons.” Contrary to some reports, her language did not include the phrase, “resistance is futile”.
Secretary of State Gates has been meeting with Israeli Secretary of State Barak, and has assured the Israeli government that conversation with Iran is not ‘open ended’. He said that his boss, President Obama, is anticipating a definite answer by September. Both secretaries made it plain that the military option remains on the table. Whether that is an empty bluff or Iran’s last chance remains to be seen.
But if we see rain clouds in the sky, do we not prepare for rain? Even if we are incorrect this time, we will be right some time in the future.
I think it is the same way now about preparing to survive very rough times ahead. It may not be now. Nor September. But the very nature of an disaster means it comes at an unexpected time. It would be nice to be able to mitigate the misery with some supplies you’ve laid down over time.
