For background, see posts HMS Daring Leaves Gibraltar, HMS Daring Arrives Gibraltar, and Middle East War Scheduled for January 16-31, (which I must admit was a little precocious.)

HMS Daring left Gibraltar January 21. It took 9 days to get to the Suez Canal, transiting last Monday, January 30, according to commercial global naval media reporting information apparently directly from an official Royal Navy press release. That’s maybe 2,200 miles, depending on the sea route she took.

That would infer she averaged a little over 9 knots… a fraction of her top speed of at least 29 knots. Maybe she loitered a bit, waiting for the other British ships sent to the Middle East after her departure, HMS Ledbury and HMS Westminister, to catch up with her? Maybe she had a layover somewhere along the way? Maybe she experienced one of her chronic propulsion system breakdowns? Maybe we should take public press releases of the Royal Navy with a grain of salt?

From the Canal, through the Red Sea, to the Sea of Oman is very roughly 1,800 miles. If Daring maintained the same reported speed as from Gibraltar, that would put her in the Sea of Oman maybe Tuesday, steaming by the Yemeni island of Socotra perhaps Sunday.

Or she could have revved up her engines and be off the shores of Iran now.

You know the story about the blind men sent to India to find out what an elephant was like. One feels the elephant’s trunk, says it’s like a great snake. One feels the tail, says it’s like a mouse, and so on.

There was a study done with twenty-four Emergency Room surgeons. They were each asked to mark the place on a volunteer’s body where they would insert a needle to release air if a patient had a collapsed lung (tension pneumothorax). The correct place is the second intercostal space on the side that has the collapsed lung, just above the third rib, lateral to the mid-clavicular line. That makes it the upper part of the chest more than halfway to the side, so that you miss things like the heart when you insert the needle.

None of the trained and certified ER surgeons marked the correct place. None. Several marked insertions that would have pierced the pericardium, and probably the heart itself. Some would have hit the liver. Not very reassuring, is it?

Today’s international spotlight was on when Iran would have a nuclear weapon.

The timing of a preemptive strike by Israel, or the U.S., or a coalition, would ostensibly be based on the perception of when Iran could weaponize the nuclear material they have.

Today was the last day of the 12th Annual Herzliya Conference (see previous post). This year has turned into an especially important event, globally spotlighting the viewpoints of top military and security officials from Israel and other nations.

Iran’s nuclear program was, in all meanings of the phrase… the elephant in the room.

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Iran has taken their top card off the deck and placed it at the bottom, for now.

The pending legislation for shutting off oil to the EU has been taken out of play, for now.

Iranian media talks instead about the EU embargo of Iranian oil hurting the EU more than it does Iran. They mention the price of gas in Ireland already having doubled during the EU debt crisis, and project more economic dislocations throughout the EU as the sanctions against Iranian oil falls into place. No more threats by Iran about immediately turning off the oil spigot to the EU.

Instead, Iran appears to be pinning all its hopes on continuing meetings and negotiations with not only the IAEA, but the G5+1 group of top Western nations.

The IAEA has issued a statement that the next meeting in Iran will be held February 21 and 22. Director General of the IAEA Yukiya Amano said today, “The agency is committed to intensifying dialogue. It remains essential to make progress on substantive issues.” Spoken like a true bureaucrat. Dilbert’s boss comes to mind.

Iranian official media reports that Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Saleh said Iran ‘is always ready to settle its nuclear issue in an appropriate way’. He announced that Iran will ’soon send a letter to the six world powers to reiterate its readiness for talks, and he thinks that those talks with the G 5+1 “…will be a successful meeting, because I feel the other side is now interested to find a way to settle Iran’s nuclear issue.”

So the recent get-together between Iran and the IAEA appears to have born fruit.

But it is it fresh fruit or old fruit?

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I hated disco. But now that it’s been gone for decades, I feel a certain nostalgia about it. Bad songs bring back happy memories of that time, which have nothing to do with disco.

Which has little to do with the IAEA leaving Iran today. Except that we may soon be remembering this time as the good old days, as bad as they may be. And except that this visit may have been the last dance, the last chance for a little love between Iran and the West.

Herman Nackaerts took his IAEA team home today, leaving Iran precisely on the schedule he had insisted upon before arriving, even though the Iranians kept pressing him to stay just a little bit longer.

All sources say that the only thing the team did was talk. No visits to any facilities. Just talk.

The best thing Iranian media, official or otherwise, could say about the affair was that the meetings were ‘held in a positive and constructive atmosphere’.

Then the spin fell off, and a little more temper hit the official English language Iranian media. Headline: ‘Iran to Ban IAEA Inspectors If They Lie’

A member of Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee is quoted as saying that if the IAEA publishes an ‘“unrealistic report” on Iran’s nuclear activities and “misleads the global community” after leaving Iran, they must be denied entry into the country’.

Looks like the date did not end with a kiss on the porch.

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The status of legislation in the Iranian Parliament appears to be back where it was on Saturday.

The boilerplate text being used in more than one official Iranian article is, “… members of the Iranian parliament finalized a draft bill on Saturday on cutting the country’s oil exports to the European states in retaliation for the EU’s oil ban against Tehran. ”

So we’re back to ‘finalized.’ But no mention of debate or vote. No mention of a timeframe until they hand it to their Guardians Council for rubber stamp approval, the only other step needed for it to be put into effect immediately.

Some specifics of the legislation were publicized Monday, also reused as boilerplate. Vice-Chairman of their parliament’s Energy Commission, Nasser Soudani, is quoted as having said on Saturday, “The bill has 4 articles, including one which states that the Islamic Republic of Iran will cut all oil exports to the European states until they end their oil sanctions against the country.”

He also said that another article of the bill ‘requires the government to stop imports of goods from those countries which are a party to these sanctions against Iran’.

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Confusing? Yes. Because everything is morphing back and forth very quickly. But bear with me through the changes, and it will get more solid before the end of this post.

Sunday morning, Iran time, an important United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) team, led by Deputy Director General Herman Nackaerts, Head of the Department of Safeguards, arrived in Tehran for a much-heralded three-day “mission to Iran to investigate allegations of secret military dimensions to the Iranian nuclear program,” as official U.S. media put it.

This visit seems to have been seen by the Iranians as a last-ditch, do-or-die, final chance to bring the IAEA around to their point view regarding their country’s uranium enrichment. As a welcoming present, all mention of the Iranian legislation that would immediately stop the flow of Iran’s oil to the European Union, and which was to be passed as early as today… disappeared from Iranian media.

Except for a very confused yes-no-yes-no article early Sunday morning in official English-language Iranian media…

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An incorporeal specter is wafting on the winds of war, unseen or at least unreported by Western sources. Is it that our media mavens do not believe in it? Or are squinching their eyes tightly shut because of the horror it manifests?

Or is that overstating the case? You decide.

The issue is legislation in the Iranian Majlis (mäj’lis - parliament) that would immediately halt oil exports to the European Union. This would circumvent the phase-in period for EU sanctions on Iranian oil.

Everyone is talking about how Iran may or may not close the Strait of Hormuz, and speculating how a military closure would be partial and gradual as the EU sanctions slide into place, and Europe secures oil from the nations of the Arab League. Frankly, how could the closure be gradual? Once military actions start, it is difficult to comprehend how they would not escalate logarithmically in a flash. Perhaps literally.

This legislation bypasses all that, and accomplishes much the same thing for the Iranians without a military component.

One can only wonder how great a shock it would be for world markets. Greece, one of the EU’s shakiest economies, depends heavily on Iranian oil, which they have been receiving on credit. Other EU countries have varying dependencies on oil from the sands of the ancient Persian empire.

Now… the burning question. How likely is it to happen? …Read the rest of this entry… »

Drumbeats of War - Iran To Stop Oil To EU

“A number of representatives of the Majlis and I are seeking to approve a bill according to which all European countries that made Iran the target of their sanctions will not be able to buy even one drop of oil from Iran, and oil taps will be turned off to them so that they will not play with fire again.”
– Nasser Soudani, member of Iran Majlis (parliament) Energy Committee

This proposed legislation could be ratified as early as Sunday, says official Iranian media… quoting Russian media. Why do they do that? I think when the Iranians quote another source for their own actions, it is to give it more gravitas, more weight, in the eyes of English speaking people who may have a bias against Iran. Is a Russian source more acceptable? Apparently they believe so.

Be that as it may…

Legislation to deny all Western warships entry into the Persian Gulf without Iranian permission was supposed to have been ratified some weeks ago. It is still hanging fire in the Majlis. Seems to have been an empty threat. But it could go though at any time, I suppose. Probably would mean war, though, so there is a good reason to bury it in committee.

This new legislation stopping oil from going to the 27 countries of the European Union may be the same sort of deal, and may never pass.

On the other hand… if it does, the EU is going to be in very dire straits short term. Saudi Arabia can increase oil production some, and other OPEC nations could do the same. But that takes time. The shortfall in the EU would have to be made up from strategic oil reserves… the Saudi’s, the U.S.’s, or any other country willing to donate.

But even that takes time to organize. In the meantime there would be some degree of shortfall.

One wonders what that would do to the price of oil.

One projection based on similar events …Read the rest of this entry… »

Wednesday, Iranian media formally stepped back from the importance of the Iranian section of last night’s State of the Union address. They are now saying his ‘hostile remarks toward Iran’ are ‘only meant for propaganda purposes’… their boilerplate response for everything that issues from the U.S.. The single oblique reference to a diplomatic solution that was in Iranian media last night no longer appears today.

Their hard and blustery tone makes it appear they have chosen not to accept Obama’s wan hope that peace is still possible. And that is because, they say, war is not possible. The U.S. is simply doing psychological warfare to scare them into giving up their nuclear program and their oil. The naval buildup in the Sea of Oman is only theater.

And they have some reason to say that. There are very mixed messages being thrown at them from the West. Secretary General of NATO Anders Rasmussen today assured Iran that military intervention in the Middle East should be “completely” excluded from their thinking. But why should he even mention it, if it is so impossible?

The British today made the incredible statement that their military pressure on Iran is not serious, only pressure, it doesn’t mean anything real. Really. “This is not a set of actions designed to lead to any conflict but to lead us away from any conflict by increasing the pressure for a peaceful settlement of these disputes,” said the British Foreign Secretary today… as key elements of the British fleet approach the Persian Gulf.

Whether or not the Iranians believe in their hearts that war is not possible… and how could they, since they frantically continue to build up their defenses… their answer is clear: we shall not be moved.

Perhaps this signifies that negotiations are at a dead end also.

If so, that would tend to make a person agree with the inescapable conclusion from President Obama’s ‘peace is still possible’ message… war is most probable.

When I read President Obama’s State of the Union Address delivered Tuesday night at 9 pm EST, I scanned it to see if anything was said about Iran. Toward the end of the hour-plus speech, there it was…

“Look at Iran. Through the power of our diplomacy, a world that was once divided about how to deal with Iran’s nuclear program now stands as one. The regime is more isolated than ever before; its leaders are faced with crippling sanctions, and as long as they shirk their responsibilities, this pressure will not relent.”

I wondered several things, like how China’s agreement to take all the oil Iran can produce could fit into President Obama’s vision of a world that ’stands as one’… but I shrugged it off.

“Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal.”

Okay, standard boilerplate. Exactly what Israel and the Israeli lobby wants to hear. Expected. Ho hum.

Then my eyes opened wide with surprise.

“But a peaceful resolution of this issue is still possible, and far better, and if Iran changes course and meets its obligations, it can rejoin the community of nations.”

Peace… still possible.

Not probable. Things that are ’still possible’ have moved out of the realm of probable. They have passed through the time when all things are possible but some are less likely. They have arrived at the sad place where something is, sigh, still possible, perhaps. But no longer probable.

The opposite of peace is war.

War has replaced peace as most probable.

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