Today’s big announcement in the major media is that Royal Dutch Shell and ‘oil-trading giant’ Vitol have suspended gasoline sales to Iran. That news has been met with much applause and patriotic glad tidings. Yea! They’re on our side!

The move by Shell isn’t new. You are just now hearing about these things. Don’t you find that odd?

Truth is, the world’s three largest gasoline suppliers, Vitol, Trafigura and Glencore, have been stopping their sales to Iran beginning late last year. (Why they’re doing it is a matter of conjecture. Its it pressure by the US and allies, or just a businessman’s instinct to get out of the way of big trouble? They aren’t saying.)

But in any event, it is not working. The Chinese’ shadowy gasoline interests… including Shen Hua, their very aggressive oil exploration company that has been making deals all over Africa… have been picking up the slack in gasoline sales to Iran. So have some Dubai traders, who obviously will do pretty much anything for money since their economy collapsed.

The world now knows that ‘harsh sanctions’ on gasoline for Iran obviously will not work. The ’sanctions’ are de facto in place, and it isn’t making a grease spot of difference.

It would take a naval blockade to keep gasoline from Iran.

Are we ready for that?

Vacuum. I love that word, because I can never spell it correctly. It’s always a challenge. I remember there are two same letters, but then I think maybe there are two pairs of same letters.

Apparently the Obama Administration has a similar problem with the word ’sanctions’. Not in spelling the word, but in figuring out what should go into it at the United Nations discussions with the other veto nations.

Instead of the crippling terms promised Israel to keep them from striking Iran, now there are vague references to ’strengthened vigilance’. Oil and gas are off the table. No arms embargo. And even then, China keeps saying, ‘well, I don’t know… too harsh still…’

Poof. …Read the rest of this entry… »

(Repost — Odd, part of this is missing. Either there was a mistake on this end, which is most likely, or… well, anyway, I will try to recreate it best I can. This is a repost March 6)

I was saying that the Obama Administration was backing down from confronting Iran, and Israel’s Netanyahu Administration seemed to be doing the same, and that Iran was probably not going to start a war, although they have been putting huge amounts of the

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machinery of war into production and on their front lines. But so has everyone else, and I do mean everyone, including Saudi Arabia.

So, on the surface, it seems that the war that almost was… isn’t going to happen.

But.

There are three factors that could tip the scales at any moment. …Read the rest of this entry… »

Ain’t nothin’ like the real thing, baby…

… but a dress rehearsal is as good as it gets until the real thing arrives.

So every once in a while, we go through the motions as though it were the real thing. We put on our gear, get the appropriate things out of storage and into action locations.

Most of our First Aid supplies are stored at the proper temperature for long term storage, so we need to put them someplace more at hand during an actual emergency. Some kits go into cars, depending on …Read the rest of this entry… »

According to KB Mashynostroyeniya, the Russian manufacturer of the IGLA-S man-portable air defense missile system, it is:

“…designed to engage front line aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles and UAVs under direct visibility conditions and in the night time, head-on and tail chase, in background clutter and thermal countermeasures environment. IGLA-S MANPADS is a new-generation system featuring considerably extended firing range and enhanced kill probability against aerial targets and possessing a new quality for this class of systems - high engagement effectiveness against small-size targets like cruise missiles and UAVs.”

Why am I posting this information?

Because according to Israeli sources, the Syrians have given these things to Hizballah in Lebanon.

Israel has warned Syria not to give Hizballah such high value strategic weapons, or Israel would be compelled to strike targets INSIDE SYRIA. …Read the rest of this entry… »

In an abrupt about face, the Obama Administration has backed off sanctions for Iran.

Hillary Clinton told reporters that the US was no longer fast-tracking any sanctions whatsoever for Iran’s pursuit of nuclear materials.

“We are moving expeditiously and thoroughly in the Security Council, I can’t give you an exact date, but I would assume some time in the next several months,” she said.

It is a deliberate slap in the face to Israel. The US has been promising sanctions on the deepest level of commitment.

Israelis are not taking it lightly. Jerusalem Post comments run from ‘let’s bomb Iran now’ to ‘let’s bomb Iran now.’ Not much of a spread.

Is that the Obama Administration’s plan? To have Israel start a war? Looks like it.

The only other player that could make a difference is the US Congress. There is legislation pending that would force unilateral US sanctions on Iran. Does Obama just want to be forced, so he can throw up his hands and say ‘they made me do it’? How do you feel about that?

Surely, the Iranians now will NEVER back down. They have made the greatest military nation on earth kowtow to their ambitions.

Oil is above $80 again.

Buy food. Get water. Store it.

I never post on Sunday. But I’m doing this anyway, because I feel that time is of the essence on this one. It may be quite important. Or not. We’ll see soon.

Yellowcake is a concentrate of uranium ore that is used to make nuclear material. It is the first step on the road to fuel for a peaceful nuclear reactor for power, or the makings of war materials.

Remember just before the Iraq war, when we were told that North Korea was supplying Iraq with yellowcake for their Weapons of Mass Destruction? Remember how that turned out to be based on forged documents? Remember how it helped start that war?

Now there is ‘intelligence information’ circulating that North Korea was shipping 45 tons of yellowcake, enough for 3-5 nuclear devices, to Syria at the time the Israeli airforce destroyed something in Syria, which is widely accepted to have been a war-oriented nuclear plant under construction. After the bombing, the Koreans turned the ship around for home port.

But now ‘intelligence sources’, which can probably be traced to the Israeli Mossad (their equivalent of our CIA but with a much better track record), say that those 45 tons of yellowcake were re-shipped to the Middle East last summer. More specifically, to Iran. This information has also been published by the New Agency of India, although they attributed it to a ‘Western diplomatic source’, which indicates to me that the United States is either involved with this story, or will gladly accept it as true.

Woah Nellie! That’s a game changer… if true. …Read the rest of this entry… »

Sayyed Nasrallah went to dinner on Thursday. …Read the rest of this entry… »

This is difficult, because there are not a lot of sources. But this is what seems to be happening.

As detailed in the Major Update two posts ago, Iran’s President Ahmadinejad hosted the leaders of Syria, Lebanon’s Hisballah, and Gaza’s Hamas to put the finishing touches on who does what in time of war. The question was whether that meeting would end with discord for some reason, or with all parties agreeing on what they were to do.

Apparently, it was agreeable.

Ahmadinejad is going on to host in Tehran this weekend an extraordinary meeting of …Read the rest of this entry… »

- Secretary of State Clinton told the Senate Appropriations Committee today that the US has little choice but to impose sanctions on Iran. However, she asked congress not to restrict her ‘flexibility’ by passing specific legislation. Instead, she ‘hopes’ the Administration will put together some sort of sanctions in ‘30 to 60 days’.

- In the meantime, a delegation headed by US Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg, including representatives from the National Security Council and the Pentagon are headed to Israel Thursday for more ’strategic dialog’ on Iran.

- Israeli Secretary of Defense Barak today told United Nations Secretary Ban today that Iran and Syria are arming Hisballah in Lebanon and Gaza with 40,000 missiles to be used upon the population of Israel.

- Little chance of Russian support for sanctions at the UN, as Russian official Oleg Rozhkov told press today that Russia will decline to work together with the US on any sanctions that could isolate Iran. The Chinese continue to back away from commitment.

So there are two paths down the road.

Congress stands down and lets the Administration do it their way, which has been mostly ineffective, which is why Congress put together the legislation in the first place. But if they do stand down, that gives at least 1-2 months before anything happens, and probably not much even then. That would surely seem a very long road to the Israelis.

Alternately, Congress says they have had enough of the low-impact path of the Administration and goes on to pass draconian legislation against Iran that the President is duty-bound to follow. At least ostensibly. Presidents have ignored Congress before.

But if he does not, and implements Congress’ sanctions… there we go.

A lot of ifs and maybes, but it does look like whatever path is taken, there is trouble ahead. Stay tuned.